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Albanese's ‘bizarre' speech hurting Australia's relationship with US

Albanese's ‘bizarre' speech hurting Australia's relationship with US

Sky News AUa day ago
The Australian's Foreign Editor Greg Sheridan discusses growing concerns that Australia is drifting away from the United States in their relations.
'Why did Albanese make such a bizarre speech,' Mr Sheridan told Sky News host Danica De Giorgio.
'Is he trying to provoke the Americans into killing off AUKUS?
'Albanese, even at the level of politics should be very careful about this though … the American alliance is very popular.'
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A military invasion of Taiwan would reignite the Korean Peninsula, turning a regional conflict with China into a worst-case World War Three style scenario that would involve Australia, senior Japanese military figures have warned. Sky News recently spoke to two Japanese Admirals – one of whom is still serving, the other, retired but well placed. Both gave their thoughts freely on condition of anonymity. If the People's Liberation Army was to move on Taiwan, the retired admiral believed the PLA would have to strike US forces strategically located on the Japanese island of Okinawa, 650 kilometres from Taiwan's capital, Taipei. Around 30,000 US personnel are located on the island, including US Marines. With its location directly east of the Chinese mainland, the Kadena Airbase has been referred to as the 'Keystone of the Pacific.' 'We always talk about Okinawa issue… but I don't believe that China can separate Taiwan from Okinawa,' the retired Admiral told Sky News, describing his country as 'entrapped.' 'If China decides to invade Taiwan … at that point of time, they have already decided, okay, there is no way that they can excuse Okinawa which means to a certain degree the United States must also be part of their enemy.' The conflict would also trigger another equally dangerous flashpoint, the Korean peninsula. In the event of American involvement, US assets based in South Korea would seek to intercept PLA ships and submarines leaving naval bases in the Yellow Sea. Pyongyang's alliance with Beijing, and Seoul's to Washington make this a nuclear tinderbox. 'If something happened over the Taiwan Strait, there is no way that North and South (Korea) would not do anything … ultimately, some kind of conflict would be ignited on the Korean peninsula,' the retired Admiral told this masthead. 'From the Yellow Sea … Chinese forces must come out … Will South Korea just let them go? Many American … forces are there, so they are almost automatically trapped.' 'They will have no other choice but to engage as the result of the American participation.' The retired Admiral believed this would draw Australia into the conflict, 'Australia has signed the armistice of the Korean peninsula, so Australia is obliged to come if something happens on the Korean Peninsula.' He believed Australian forces would also be expected to tie up Chinese assets in the Indo-Pacific. 'While (Australia's) number (and) capacity is not very big … they (have) very capable forces to bring the Chinese attention down south. 'What I mean is, if something happens, simply put Australia can keep the southern forces of China (in) the south.' Asked if this meant attracting Chinese forces, the Admiral said, 'Yes. That's right. That's one of the merits for us if Australis is an ally.' 'As long as you are visible in the south, China must take care,' he said. 'Another thing (that) Australia can do, even during the war, (it) can do many things with (the Pacific) island nations,' said the retired Admiral, noting the theatre would once again be crucial. 'This war cannot be limited within the so called, 'first island chain,'' he said. 'Definitely it will go out.' While Australia has no formal alliance with Japan, both nations are de-facto allies and economically dependent. Tokyo views Canberra as its second most important strategic relationship behind Washington due to Australia's democratic values and resource wealth. 'The danger is not imminent but visible,' noted the retired admiral. But when it came to grey-zone conflict and espionage, 'the difficult point is what is war now?' he said. JAPAN'S STRATEGY From across the ocean, Japan faces three nuclear armed potential enemies: Russia, North Korea and China. While Australia enjoyed a 'ten-year warning time' Sky News was told for Tokyo, each new decade seemed to usher in a different threat. If war breaks out, the serving admiral told Sky News that Japan would move to immediately lay mines to the north to prevent a Russian response and to its south to lock the PLA Navy within the First Island Chain – thus preventing it from fully breaking out into the Indo-Pacific. Terrified it could be isolated, Japan is building a fleet of fast frigates at a rate of two per year. Production will soon move to three frigates annually across three shipyards. Each new frigate is armed with 16 vertical launch missile cells – double the number of our retiring ANZAC class frigates. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries will soon roll out a larger frigate, its Mogami FFM with 32 VLS cells. Japan's naval strategy is to use these frigates - rather than more expensive destroyers - to protect convoys critical to its national survival. It estimates it will have to surround or 'screen' each convoy with between five and eight warships, similar to a carrier strike group. These convoys will have to travel to the middle east for oil and south to Australia. Japan knows it needs our natural gas, coal, iron ore for steel and rare earths for weapons. The Australian government is currently considering the Mogami FFM under its Project Sea 3000 tender along with a German bid by TKMS. What makes Japan's bid unique, however, it that is goes beyond production. Japan seeks to allow Australia to construct the warships to boost allied warfighting capabilities and service its own damaged vessels in the event of conflict. Japan is effectively handing over its intellectual property at a discount rate to maintain its access to the minerals and resources its population needs. With Australia having lost much of its manufacturing sector, and with Defence struggling like other nations to deliver projects on time and budget, Sky News understands Japan's offer is in essence, 'We can design and build the ships you need, just arm yourselves with interoperable weapons to protect the supply lines that will make the defence of both of our nations possible' Jonathan recently travelled to Japan as a guest of its government and major shipbuilder, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.

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