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Oil pauses rally as markets weigh Trump's ultimatum to Russia

Oil pauses rally as markets weigh Trump's ultimatum to Russia

Reuters5 days ago
NEW DELHI, July 30 (Reuters) - Oil prices took a breather in Asian trade on Wednesday after the previous session's spike of more than 3%, as investors awaited developments from U.S. President Donald Trump's tighter deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine.
Most active Brent crude futures rose 8 cents, or 0.12%, to $71.81 a barrel by 0419 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 8 cents, or 0.12%, to $69.29 a barrel.
The Brent crude September contract expiring on Wednesday was up 18 cents at $72.69 per barrel.
Both contracts had settled on Tuesday at their highest since June 20.
On Tuesday, Trump said he would start imposing measures on Russia, such as secondary tariffs of 100% on trading partners, if it did not make progress on ending the war within 10 to 12 days, moving up from an earlier 50-day deadline.
"The $4 to $5 per barrel of supply risk premium injected in recent days can be expected to be sustained, unless Putin makes a conciliatory move," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.
The United States had warned China, the largest buyer of Russian oil, it could face huge tariffs if it kept buying, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a news conference in Stockholm, where the U.S. was holding trade talks with the EU.
JP Morgan analysts said in a note that while China was not likely to comply with U.S. sanctions, India has signalled it would do so, putting at risk 2.3 million barrels per day of Russian oil exports.
The United States and the European Union averted a trade war with a deal for 15% U.S. tariffs on European imports, easing concerns about the impact of trade tension on economic growth and offering support to oil prices.
In Venezuela, foreign partners of state oil company PDVSA are still waiting for U.S. authorisation to operate in the sanctioned country after talks last week, which could return some supply to the market, so easing pressure for prices to rise.
"The oil market is keeping an eye on the U.S. trade deals and talks and on the Fed, but those are marginal influences on sentiment," Hari added.
Despite President Donald Trump's objections, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at its policy meeting later on Wednesday.
On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund raised global growth forecasts slightly for 2025 and 2026, but warned the world economy faced major risks, such as a rebound in tariff rates, geopolitical tension and larger fiscal deficits.
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Texas Democrats flee state in bid to block redrawn congressional map
Texas Democrats flee state in bid to block redrawn congressional map

Telegraph

time15 minutes ago

  • Telegraph

Texas Democrats flee state in bid to block redrawn congressional map

A group of Democrats has fled Texas as part of an attempt to block a Donald Trump-backed redistricting plan that could reshape the balance of power in Washington. Lawmakers were seen boarding chartered planes on Sunday evening as they sought to deny the Texas House of Representatives the quorum required to vote on a redrawn congressional map that could create an additional five Republican-leaning seats. Gene Wu, who chairs the House Democratic Caucus, said the members were 'walking out on a rigged system that refuses to listen to the people we represent'. 'As of today, this corrupt special session is over,' Mr Wu said. Republicans hold 25 of Texas's 38 seats in the US House, and the president has demanded 'a simple redrawing' of congressional lines to create more GOP-friendly districts. 'There could be some other states we're going to get another three, or four or five in addition. Texas would be the biggest one,' Mr Trump said in July. 'Just a simple redrawing, we pick up five seats.' Redistributing typically takes place every 10 years to account for population changes documented in the census, so redrawing the districts mid-decade is considered unusual. The Texas House was due to debate the new map on Monday – but to conduct official business, at least 100 of the 150 members must be present in the chamber. Democrats hold 62 of the seats, which means Republicans would not have the numbers to proceed with redrawing the map while the group of objecting members is out of the state. Ken Paxton, the Texas Attorney General, threatened to have the fleeing lawmakers arrested. 'Democrats in the Texas House who try and run away like cowards should be found, arrested, and brought back to the Capitol immediately,' Mr Paxton wrote on X. Democrats in the Texas House who try and run away like cowards should be found, arrested, and brought back to the Capitol immediately. We should use every tool at our disposal to hunt down those who think they are above the law. — Attorney General Ken Paxton (@KenPaxtonTX) August 3, 2025 The Democrats face fines of $500 each for every day they break a quorum, and under new state laws they are not allowed to use party funding to pay. Anticipating the walkout, the members have been fundraising to cover costs. On Sunday evening, they posted photographs and videos to social media confirming they were flying interstate. 'We didn't start this fight – Donald Trump started it,' said Democrat Representative Ramon Romero Jr in a video posted to X. 'He asked the Texas legislature to get rid of your voice.' My Democratic colleagues and I just left the state of Texas to break quorum and stop Trump's redistricting power grab. Trump is trying to rig the midterm elections right before our eyes. But first he'll have to come through us. It's time to fight back. — James Talarico (@jamestalarico) August 3, 2025 Josh Rush Nisenson, spokesperson for the House Democratic Caucus said 'apathy is complicity, and we will not be complicit in the silencing of hard-working communities who have spent decades fighting for the power that Trump wants to steal.' In a video posted from an airport, Democratic Representative James Talarico accused Republicans of a 'power grab' and claimed the plan would manipulate electoral boundaries to gain political control. 'If you're seeing this video, my Democratic colleagues and I have just left our beloved state to break quorum and stop Trump's redistricting power grab,' Mr Talarico said in the video posted on X on Sunday. 'They're turning our districts into crazy shapes to guarantee the outcome they want in the 2026 elections 'But Texas Democrats are fighting back. [We're] preventing Republicans from silencing our voices and rigging the next election.' Texans deserve better! I won't help pass a racist map drawn by Donald Trump and Washington D.C. to silence the voices of Texans. #txlege #redistricting — Rep Ramón (@RepRamonRomero) August 3, 2025 This is not the first time Texas Democrats have used this tactic. In 2003, they left the state in an attempt to stop a Republican-led redistricting plan. In 2021, they staged a 38-day walkout by fleeing to Washington, DC, in protest against new GOP-backed voting restrictions. Meanwhile, Democrats in Illinois have suggested that they could fight back against Texas Republicans by pushing to have their blue state's congressional maps redrawn. The tit-for-tat tactics may be limited, however, given many Democrat-led states use independent commissions to draw district boundaries. These commissions were designed to make redistricting fairer but they also limit the ability to fight back when Republicans use their legislative power to redraw maps in their favour.

Judge makes bombshell ruling after Trump assassination attempt suspect tries to unseal 'classified national security' documents
Judge makes bombshell ruling after Trump assassination attempt suspect tries to unseal 'classified national security' documents

Daily Mail​

time15 minutes ago

  • Daily Mail​

Judge makes bombshell ruling after Trump assassination attempt suspect tries to unseal 'classified national security' documents

A federal judge has barred the man accused of trying to kill President Donald Trump at his Florida golf club last year from accessing documents related to his own arrest because they would compromise national security. Ryan Routh, 59, who is representing himself in his upcoming trial for the attempted assassination at Trump's West Palm Beach golf course on September 15, 2024, was shot down in his request for documents related to his case. In her ruling on Friday, Judge Aileen Cannon mysteriously determined that 'the United States has made a sufficient showing that the information at issue was classified' and that its disclosure 'could cause serious damage or exceptionally grave damages to the national security of the United States.' 'The Court finds that the United States properly invoked the provisions of [the] Classified Information Procedures Act and its classified information privilege as to the information referenced by the classified order,' Cannon wrote in her two-page decision. 'The United States' motion and all accompanying material are hereby sealed.' It is unclear what classified documents Routh may have been seeking or how it relates to national security threats. But some have speculated online about what the ruling could mean, with conservative influencer Nick Sortor asking, 'Was this guy a Ukrainian asset or something.' Libertarian Ken Silva also wondered, 'What are they trying to hide?!' Routh has been charged with attempting to assassinate Trump at his West Palm Beach golf course last year before the presidential election, as well as charges of assaulting a federal officer and multiple firearm violations related to the September 15, 2024 assassination attempt. He is also charged with owning a handgun despite being a convicted felon and with possessing a firearm with a removed serial number. Prosecutors have said Routh aimed a rifle at Trump from behind a bush on his golf course, but his plot was quickly foiled by a sharp-eyed Secret Service agent. The would-be assassin then allegedly aimed his rifle at the agent, who opened fire while Trump was raced away to safety. The action took place just a few hundred yards away from where Trump was golfing on September 15, 2024, just weeks before the November elections. Routh has denied the charges against him, pleading not guilty in the weeks after the incident. Last month, he was granted the ability to represent himself in his upcoming trial, with his court-appointed attorneys serving as standby counsel as Cannon warned him that the lawyers 'will defend you better than you can defend yourself' and urged him not to make the decision, Fox News reports. He has filed a number of motions ever since, and at his first opportunity to speak in court, Routh went of topic - bringing up what he thought were the ambitions of Cannon and the federal prosecutors, according to WPBF. Libertarian Ken Silva also asked what the federal government is trying to hide He also reportedly wrote Cannon - who previously oversaw Trump's classified documents case - an unusual letter asking why the death penalty was not on the table in his case. Routh even went as far as proposing he be included in a prisoner swap with enemies of the United States. 'Why is the death penalty not allowed? At nearly 60, a life of nothingness without love - what is the point? Why is it all or nothing?' he wrote, according to Fox. 'I had wished for a prisoner swap with Hamas, Iran ... or China for [businessman] Jimmy Lai or one of the 40 others, or to freeze to death in Siberia in exchange for a Ukrainian soldier... so I could die being of some use and save all this court mess.' He then suggested that Cannon send him away - joking that it would give Trump a symbolic win. 'Perhaps you [Judge Cannon] have the power to trade me away... An easy diplomatic victory for Trump to give an American he hates to China, Iran or North Korea... everyone wins.' Meanwhile, Routh tried to flex his legal muscles when he filed a motion asking Cannon to exclude 'irrelevant and prejudicial evidence' including messages from his former employer, Tina Cooper, who pleaded guilty to conspiring with Routh to help get weapons illegally. The Department of Justice blasted Routh in its response, claiming he was 'mistaken' on a number of things he alleged, including an 'odd claim' that the government has not identified specific pieces of evidence against him. 'Other arguments are more persuasive in light of the defendant's decision to represent himself,' federal prosecutors argued, Law & Crime reports. 'This court has a responsibility to ensure that trial does not become a circus and that the jury is not burdened and distracted by plainly inadmissible evidence,' they added. Routh did not seem to help his case in his response, when he rambled about the 'new DOJ, Trump [and United States Attorney General Pam] Bondi,' and argued that one can't 'besmirch the president's morals when he has none. 'The defendant respectfully moves this court to recognize that the prosecution is making every attempt in this motion to silence the defense in every fashion.' Federal prosecutors now say they expect Routh to present statements from self-published 'books' and other writings of his as well as hearsay statements in his defense. 'It is the defendant's evidence that is most likely to upend this trial by injecting irrelevant and prejudicial facts unrelated to the actual charges,' the federal prosecutors argued. 'None of the substantive legal arguments raised... has merit.' The Daily Mail has reached out to the Department of Justice for comment.

Goldman keeps Brent oil forecast, but flags downside risks to demand
Goldman keeps Brent oil forecast, but flags downside risks to demand

Reuters

time15 minutes ago

  • Reuters

Goldman keeps Brent oil forecast, but flags downside risks to demand

Aug 4 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs on Sunday reiterated its oil price forecast with Brent averaging $64 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $56 in 2026, but expects an increasing range of risks to its baseline estimates from recent developments. "Increasing pressure on Russia and Iran sanctioned oil supply poses an upside risk to our price forecast, especially given the faster-than-expected normalization in spare capacity," the investment bank said in an August 3 note. However, Goldman flagged a downside risk to its 800,000 barrels per day average annual demand growth forecast in 2025-2026 due to the increase in U.S. tariff rates, threats of additional secondary tariffs and weak U.S. economic activity data. The weaker data "suggests that the U.S. economy is now growing at a below-potential pace", which the bank's economists' feel has increased the chance of a recession in the next 12 months, the note said. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies such as Russia, known as OPEC+, agreed on Sunday to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September, the latest in a series of accelerated output hikes to regain market share. "While OPEC+ policy remains flexible, we assume OPEC+ will keep its production quota unchanged after September as we expect the pace of builds in OECD commercial stocks to accelerate and seasonal demand tailwinds to fade away," Goldman said. Brent crude futures were trading at $69.27 a barrel at 0115 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $66.96 a barrel. "We continue to see limited risk of large disruptions in Russia supply given the large volumes of Russian imports, the possibility for deepening price discounts to maintain demand, and continuing reported eagerness of the key buyers - China and India," analysts at Goldman Sachs said. Indian state refiners have stopped buying Russian oil in the past week as discounts narrowed this month and U.S. President Donald Trump warned countries not to purchase oil from Moscow, industry sources said.

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