Latest news with #VandaInsights
&w=3840&q=100)
Business Standard
25-06-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
An uneasy truce between Iran-Israel may be best-case scenario: Vandana Hari
True rapprochement between Israel and Iran remains elusive, complicated further by the Gaza conflict that has pitted Israel against Iran-backed groups like the Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah, says Hari S Dinakar Amritsar Listen to This Article The conflict in West Asia has roiled Asian economies, especially India, and added fresh strain to domestic refiners. Against this backdrop, Singapore-based energy expert Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, speaks with S Dinakar via email, shedding light on India's oil and gas options amid a tentative ceasefire in the ongoing Iran-Israel-US war. Edited excerpts: How do you see the West Asian situation evolving with a delicate ceasefire in place? It's likely to be an uneasy calm, at least for the next few days — ceasefires are often fragile. Yet this one offers a sliver of cautious optimism, especially as
South China Morning Post
25-06-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
Oil price ticks higher after 2-day slump as energy traders assess Iran-Israel ceasefire
Oil edged higher – after posting the biggest two-day decline since 2022 – as traders assessed the Iran-Israel ceasefire and an industry report that pointed to another drop in US crude stockpiles. Advertisement Brent crude rose about 1 per cent to near US$68 a barrel, after slumping 13 per cent over the past two days, while West Texas Intermediate was above US$65. Following their brief war, Israel and Iran appeared to be honouring the ceasefire brokered by US President Donald Trump, reducing risks to supplies from the region. Also on Tuesday, Trump gave China, Iran's biggest crude customer, the green light to carry on buying its oil, as he sought to bolster the truce. That move appeared to undermine years of US sanctions against Tehran. A senior White House official later signalled that curbs on Iran would remain. The global oil market has had a wild ride this week, marked by rapid shifts in sentiment. Prices initially spiked after the US bombed Iranian nuclear sites at the weekend, boosting concerns about crude supplies, then got dragged sharply lower as the White House announced the truce between Tehran and Israel. The apparent policy shift on Iranian exports added to the losses. 'A slight upwards correction in crude is to be expected after a two-day plunge,' said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights. 'While the market will keep an eye on the fragile truce for a bit, focus will rotate back to the economic picture, the fate of the US' tariff negotiations, and Opec.' Advertisement The Opec alliance is due to hold a videoconference on July 6 to consider a further supply boost in August. Meanwhile, Trump's self-imposed deadline to reach trade deals with the US' major partners falls on July 9. Nations without an accord in place will face the so-called 'Liberation Day' tariffs.
Ya Libnan
23-06-2025
- Business
- Ya Libnan
Iran's parliament votes to block Strait of Hormuz, in a move that will anger its neighbors and trade partners
Iran may be threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz but experts told CNBC that it's also the one with the most to lose. In major move after U.S. struck Iranian nuclear sites, the country's parliament on Sunday reportedly approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, risking alienating its neighbors and trade partners. The decision to close the waterway now rests with the the country's national security council, and its possibility has raised the specter of higher energy prices and aggravated geopolitical tensions, with Washington calling upon Beijing to prevent the strait's closure. Vandana Hari, founder of energy intelligence firm Vanda Insights, told CNBC's ' Squawk Box Asia ' that the possibility of closure remains 'absolutely minimalistic.' If Iran blocks the strait, the country risks turning its neighboring oil producing countries into enemies and risks hostilities with them, she said. Table: CNBCSource: U.S. Energy Information Administration Get the data Created with Datawrapper Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration revealed that Iran had shipped 1.5 million barrels per day via the Strait of Hormuz in the first quarter of 2025. Furthermore, a closure would also provoke Iran's market in Asia, particularly China, which accounts for a majority of Iranian oil exports. 'So very, very little to be achieved, and a lot of self inflicted harm that Iran could do' Hari said. Her view is supported by Andrew Bishop, senior partner and global head of policy research at advisory firm Signum Global Advisors. Iran will not want to antagonize China, he said, adding that disrupting supplies will also 'put a target' on the country's own oil production, export infrastructure, and regime 'at a time when there is little reason to doubt U.S. and Israeli resolve in being 'trigger-happy.'' Clayton Seigle, senior fellow for Energy Security and Climate Change at the Center for Strategic and International Studies said that as China is 'very dependent' on oil flows from the Gulf, not just Iran, 'its national security interest really would value stabilization of the situation and a de-escalation enabling safe flows of oil and gas through the strait.' There are currently there are no indications of threats to commercial shipping passing the waterway, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center . 'U.S. associated vessels have successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz without interruption, which is a positive sign for the immediate future.' The Strait of Hormuz is the only sea route from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, and about 20% of the world's oil transits the waterway. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has described it as the 'world's most important oil transit chokepoint.' 'Iran's operations in and around Hormuz are unlikely to be 'all or nothing' – but instead move along a sliding scale from total disruption to none at all,' said Signum's Bishop. 'The best strategy [for Iran] would be to rattle Hormuz oil flows just enough to hurt the U.S. via moderate upward price movement, but not enough to provoke a major U.S. response against Iran's oil production and export capacity,' he added. On Sunday, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a post on X that pump prices in the U.S. could climb to $3.35-$3.50 per gallon in the days ahead, compared to the national average of $3.139 for the week of June 16. Should Iran decide to close the strait, it would likely use small boats for a partial blockade, or for a more complete solution, mine the waterway, according to David Roche, strategist at Quantum Strategy. In a Sunday note, S&P Global Commodity Insights wrote that any Iranian closure of the strait would mean that not only Iran's own exports will be affected, but also those of nearby Gulf nations, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar. That would potentially remove over 17 billion barrels of oil from global markets, and affect regional refineries by causing feedstock shortages, the research firm said. The disruption to supply will impact Asia, Europe as well as North America. Besides oil, natural gas flows could also be 'severely impacted,' S&P said, with Qatar's gas exports of about 77 million metric tons per year potentially unable to reach key markets in Asia and Europe. Qatar's LNG exports represent about 20% of global LNG supply. 'Alternative supply routes for Middle Eastern oil and gas are limited, with pipeline capacity insufficient to offset potential maritime disruptions through the Persian Gulf and Red Sea,' S&P added. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia pointed out that 'there is limited scope to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.' Pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE have only a spare capacity of 2.6 million barrels a day between them, while the strait oversees the transport of an estimated 20 million barrels of oil and oil products per day, the bank said in a note. CNBC
Arab Times
23-06-2025
- Business
- Arab Times
Strait of Hormuz closure backed by Iran's parliament; energy markets on alert
NEW YORK, June 23: Following U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, Iran's parliament reportedly approved a move on Sunday to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit route. However, experts have warned that Iran stands to suffer the most from such a move. The final decision now rests with Iran's national security council amid escalating geopolitical tensions and concerns over rising energy prices. Washington has urged Beijing to use its influence to prevent the closure. Vandana Hari, founder of energy intelligence firm Vanda Insights, told CNBC's Squawk Box Asia that the likelihood of a full closure remains 'absolutely minimalistic.' She explained, 'If Iran blocks the strait, the country risks turning its neighboring oil-producing countries into enemies and risks hostilities with them.' Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration revealed that Iran shipped 1.5 million barrels per day through the Strait of Hormuz in the first quarter of 2025. A closure would also hurt Iran's market in Asia, particularly China, which accounts for the majority of Iranian oil exports. 'So very, very little to be achieved, and a lot of self-inflicted harm that Iran could do,' Hari added. Andrew Bishop, senior partner and global head of policy research at Signum Global Advisors, supported this view, saying Iran 'will not want to antagonize China.' He further noted that disrupting supplies would 'put a target' on Iran's own oil production, export infrastructure, and regime 'at a time when there is little reason to doubt U.S. and Israeli resolve in being 'trigger-happy.'' Clayton Seigle, senior fellow for Energy Security and Climate Change at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, emphasized China's stake in the matter, stating, 'China is very dependent on oil flows from the Gulf, not just Iran. Its national security interest really would value stabilization of the situation and a de-escalation enabling safe flows of oil and gas through the strait.' According to the Joint Maritime Information Center, there are currently no indications of threats to commercial shipping in the waterway. It confirmed that 'U.S.-associated vessels have successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz without interruption, which is a positive sign for the immediate future.' The Strait of Hormuz is the only sea route from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, with about 20% of the world's oil transiting through it. The U.S. Energy Information Administration calls it the 'world's most important oil transit chokepoint.' Bishop said, 'Iran's operations in and around Hormuz are unlikely to be 'all or nothing'—but instead move along a sliding scale from total disruption to none at all.' He added, 'The best strategy [for Iran] would be to rattle Hormuz oil flows just enough to hurt the U.S. via moderate upward price movement, but not enough to provoke a major U.S. response against Iran's oil production and export capacity.' On Sunday, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, warned in a post on X that U.S. pump prices could rise to $3.35-$3.50 per gallon in the coming days, compared to a national average of $3.139 for the week of June 16. Should Iran decide to close the strait, David Roche, strategist at Quantum Strategy, said it would likely use small boats for a partial blockade or possibly mine the waterway for a more complete closure. In a Sunday note, S&P Global Commodity Insights stated that any closure would not only affect Iran's exports but also those of neighboring Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar. This could potentially remove over 17 billion barrels of oil from global markets and disrupt regional refineries due to feedstock shortages, affecting Asia, Europe, and North America. S&P also warned that natural gas flows could be 'severely impacted,' especially Qatar's exports of about 77 million metric tons per year, which represent roughly 20% of global LNG supply. 'Alternative supply routes for Middle Eastern oil and gas are limited, with pipeline capacity insufficient to offset potential maritime disruptions through the Persian Gulf and Red Sea,' the report added. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia highlighted the limited alternatives, noting that pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE have a combined spare capacity of only 2.6 million barrels per day, compared to about 20 million barrels per day transported through the strait. All these factors contribute to upside risks for energy prices. Goldman Sachs estimates the market is currently pricing in a geopolitical risk premium of $12 per barrel. The firm projects that if oil flows through the strait dropped by 50% for one month, then remained down by 10% for another 11 months, Brent crude prices could 'briefly jump' to around $110 per barrel. As global eyes remain fixed on the region, experts caution that Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz could inflict significant self-harm, with profound consequences for global energy markets and regional stability.
NBC News
23-06-2025
- Business
- NBC News
Iran's parliament backs blocking Strait of Hormuz. Its closure will alienate Tehran further
Iran may be threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, but experts told CNBC that it's also the one with the most to lose. In a major move after U.S. struck Iranian nuclear sites, the country's parliament on Sunday reportedly approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, risking alienating its neighbors and trade partners. The decision to close the waterway now rests with the the country's national security council, and its possibility has raised the specter of higher energy prices and aggravated geopolitical tensions, with Washington calling upon Beijing to prevent the strait's closure. Vandana Hari, founder of energy intelligence firm Vanda Insights, told CNBC's ' Squawk Box Asia ' that the possibility of closure remains 'absolutely minimalistic.' If Iran blocks the strait, the country risks turning its neighboring oil-producing countries into enemies and risks hostilities with them, she said. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration revealed that Iran had shipped 1.5 million barrels per day via the Strait of Hormuz in the first quarter of 2025. Furthermore, a closure would also provoke Iran's market in Asia, particularly China, which accounts for a majority of Iranian oil exports. 'So very, very little to be achieved, and a lot of self-inflicted harm that Iran could do,' Hari said. Her view is supported by Andrew Bishop, senior partner and global head of policy research at advisory firm Signum Global Advisors. Iran will not want to antagonize China, he said, adding that disrupting supplies will also 'put a target' on the country's own oil production, export infrastructure, and regime 'at a time when there is little reason to doubt U.S. and Israeli resolve in being 'trigger-happy.'' Clayton Seigle, senior fellow for Energy Security and Climate Change at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that as China is 'very dependent' on oil flows from the Gulf, not just Iran, 'its national security interest really would value stabilization of the situation and a de-escalation enabling safe flows of oil and gas through the strait.' There are currently no indications of threats to commercial shipping passing through the waterway, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center. 'U.S. associated vessels have successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz without interruption, which is a positive sign for the immediate future.' Impact of potential disruptions The Strait of Hormuz is the only sea route from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, and about 20% of the world's oil transits the waterway. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has described it as the 'world's most important oil transit chokepoint.' 'Iran's operations in and around Hormuz are unlikely to be 'all or nothing' — but instead move along a sliding scale from total disruption to none at all,' said Signum's Bishop. 'The best strategy [for Iran] would be to rattle Hormuz oil flows just enough to hurt the U.S. via moderate upward price movement, but not enough to provoke a major U.S. response against Iran's oil production and export capacity,' he added. On Sunday, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a post on X that pump prices in the U.S. could climb to $3.35-$3.50 per gallon in the days ahead, compared with the national average of $3.139 for the week of June 16. Should Iran decide to close the strait, it would most likely use small boats for a partial blockade, or for a more complete solution, mine the waterway, according to David Roche, strategist at Quantum Strategy. In a Sunday note, S&P Global Commodity Insights wrote that any Iranian closure of the strait would affect not only Iran's own exports, but also those of nearby Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar. That would potentially remove over 17 billion barrels of oil from global markets, and affect regional refineries by causing feedstock shortages, the research firm said. The disruption to supply would impact Asia and Europe as well as North America. Besides oil, natural gas flows could also be 'severely impacted,' S&P said, with Qatar's gas exports of about 77 million metric tons per year potentially unable to reach key markets in Asia and Europe. Qatar's LNG exports represent about 20% of global LNG supply. 'Alternative supply routes for Middle Eastern oil and gas are limited, with pipeline capacity insufficient to offset potential maritime disruptions through the Persian Gulf and Red Sea,' S&P added. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia pointed out that 'there is limited scope to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.' Pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE have only a spare capacity of 2.6 million barrels a day between them, while the strait oversees the transport of an estimated 20 million barrels of oil and oil products per day, the bank said in a note. All these present upside risk to energy prices, with Goldman Sachs estimating that the market is pricing in a geopolitical risk premium of $12. If oil flows through the strait were to drop by 50% for one month and then were to remain down by 10% for another 11 months, Brent is forecast to 'briefly jump' to a peak of around $110, Goldman said.
