Tesla stock chart signals trouble — analysts say the slide might be far from over
Tesla stock continues to face intense pressure as its recent rally fades and bearish signals strengthen. Despite a short-lived bounce from $284 to $348 in June, Tesla's stock chart still shows clear signs of weakness, with prices slipping back toward their early June lows. The electric vehicle (EV) giant, led by Elon Musk, is now struggling to stay above key technical levels, while growing uncertainty over tax credits, earnings, and regulatory changes adds more weight on the stock.
Tesla stock is currently below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages — a bearish signal for traders. According to Yahoo Finance's analysis, shares peaked at $348 on June 24, a climb from $284 on June 4. That rally followed a temporary cooling-off in public tensions between Elon Musk and President Donald Trump.
But even during the rally, the stock never managed to push above its 100-day moving average — a key resistance level. The failure to break through that level was seen as a missed opportunity for Tesla bulls, and now shares have pulled back sharply, almost erasing June's gains.
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This technical weakness isn't new. Tesla first dipped below its 200-day moving average back on February 25, following widespread concern over weak Q1 earnings. The downtrend may continue if upcoming Q2 results disappoint again.
Why is Tesla stock falling despite recent gains?
While Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) saw a brief bounce recently, the bigger picture remains bearish. The stock is still down significantly from its 2024 highs, and technical indicators are flashing trouble. Tesla has fallen below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages — a major red flag for chart watchers. Historically, when these support levels break, it signals a prolonged downtrend.
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Adding to investor concerns, Tesla reported back-to-back delivery declines. In both Q1 and Q2 of 2025, Tesla posted a
13% year-over-year drop
in global vehicle deliveries — its worst showing since the pandemic era. That signals slowing demand, especially in key markets like Europe and China, where EV competition is heating up.
On top of that, the recent removal of the
$7,500 EV tax credit
in the U.S. could cost Tesla nearly
$2 billion in lost incentives
, according to analyst estimates. This makes Tesla vehicles less attractive price-wise and could further hurt sales.
What are analysts predicting for Tesla stock in 2025?
The analyst community is growing increasingly cautious. William Blair recently downgraded Tesla from 'Buy' to 'Hold,' warning that CEO Elon Musk's political distractions — including his announcement of a new 'America Party' — could further erode focus from Tesla's core operations like autonomy and energy.
Here's a snapshot of current analyst sentiment:
14 Buy
,
12 Hold
,
9 Sell
ratings
Average 12-month price target:
~$293 (modest downside from current levels)
Morningstar fair value estimate:
$250
TipRanks bull case:
$340–$350
GovCapital long-term forecast:
~$1,360 by 2030 (if Robotaxi tech succeeds)
Several analysts have also pointed to insider selling as a red flag. Elon Musk's brother, Kimbal Musk, and longtime board member Ira Ehrenpreis have offloaded significant shares this year — often seen as a bearish insider signal.
Is Tesla's robotaxi and AI strategy enough to stop the stock slide?
Tesla bulls are hanging onto one big hope: Robotaxi and AI-driven software growth. Musk has repeatedly promised that autonomous vehicles are Tesla's future. In fact, Tesla plans to unveil its first Robotaxi prototype in August 2025, which could dramatically reshape the stock narrative — if it delivers.
However, many on Wall Street remain skeptical. Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) software still faces regulatory and safety hurdles, and the competition is fierce. Companies like Waymo, Apple (rumored), and even Chinese EV makers are racing toward the same goal.
For now, AI and autonomy remain unproven revenue drivers. Until there's mass rollout or significant monetization, they're not enough to offset declining car sales and shrinking margins.
How is political tension between Musk and Trump affecting Tesla?
The relationship between Musk and Trump turned sour again this week — and Tesla's stock dropped 6.79% on Monday following a fresh public clash.
The fallout intensified when Elon Musk announced the creation of his own political party, which Trump quickly criticized. Investors fear this political spat could bring unwanted regulatory attention or broader market uncertainty — both of which are risks for Tesla at a time when sentiment is already weak.
Will the loss of EV tax credits hit Tesla's bottom line?
Another blow came on July 4, when President Trump signed a new tax and spending bill that eliminates the EV tax credit starting September 30. That $7,500 credit has long been a key driver of EV sales and is now at risk.
Analyst Jed Dorsheimer from William Blair warned that this change, along with the removal of corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) fines, may hit Tesla hard. He pointed out that the combination of reduced EV demand and the potential loss of over $2 billion in regulatory credits could trigger a significant drop in profitability.
'Unlike the EV tax credit, we expect the reduction in regulatory credit revenue to result in a direct hit to profitability,' Dorsheimer wrote, calling for a reset in market expectations.
Is Tesla's falling vehicle delivery a red flag for investors?
Tesla reported deliveries of 384,122 vehicles in Q2, a 13.5% drop compared to the same period last year. While production numbers can vary quarter to quarter, a year-over-year decline is a clear warning sign that demand could be slowing — especially if government incentives are ending.
This delivery data puts more pressure on the company ahead of its second-quarter earnings report. Any signs of further margin compression or weakening demand could drive another sell-off.
Are Tesla's future profits still too expensive to justify?
Despite all the negative news, Tesla still trades at 152 times forward earnings — a steep premium compared to the S&P 500's average of 22 times.
That valuation looks increasingly hard to defend, especially with future earnings estimates falling fast. JPMorgan auto analyst Ryan Brinkman recently revealed that Tesla's earnings-per-share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have dropped by 77%, 70%, and 71% respectively since October 2022.
To make matters worse, Brinkman estimates that EV subsidies currently account for around 52% of Tesla's profits. With those incentives disappearing, Tesla's core business may struggle to support its sky-high valuation.
Tim Urbanowicz, chief investment strategist at Innovator ETFs, summed it up this way on Yahoo Finance's
Opening Bid
:
'You look at that multiple and it's hard to imagine them growing into that in any short period of time. As with anything from Tesla, it always takes longer than Elon Musk or investors expect.'
What key levels and events should investors watch next?
Tesla's upcoming
Q2 earnings report on July 23
will be crucial. Investors will look for:
Updates on delivery guidance and margins
Clarity on Robotaxi progress
Commentary on the EV tax credit loss
Any shift in political messaging from Musk
From a technical analysis perspective, the
$280 support level
is key. A break below could signal another sharp leg down. On the upside, $335 acts as a resistance ceiling. Without strong earnings or a Robotaxi surprise, Tesla may struggle to break above that.
Is the Tesla stock selloff just beginning?
Tesla is facing a
multi-front battle
— technical breakdowns, slowing deliveries, lost incentives, political noise, and intense competition. While short-term rebounds may occur, the broader outlook remains cautious. Most analysts recommend holding off on new positions until after Q2 earnings or clearer guidance on Robotaxi deployment.
For investors, it's a time to watch closely and manage risk. Tesla remains one of the most innovative and volatile stocks on the market — and this ride is far from over.
Is Tesla stock a buy, hold, or sell right now?
Given the technical breakdown, political tensions, loss of tax incentives, shrinking deliveries, and declining earnings estimates, Tesla stock may not offer much near-term upside. While long-term believers in Elon Musk's vision might hold on, short-term traders and cautious investors are clearly moving to the sidelines.
Until Tesla shows meaningful improvement in vehicle demand, regulatory stability, or profitability without relying on subsidies, many on Wall Street expect more pain ahead.
FAQs:
Q1. Why is Tesla stock still bearish in July 2025?
Because it remains below key averages and faces weaker demand, profit risk, and policy changes.
Q2. How will the loss of EV tax credits affect Tesla stock?
It could hurt demand and slash profits, adding more pressure on Tesla's valuation and earnings.
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