Jobs, inflation, Fed move: This week could decide the fate of the US economy for years to come

Time of India

15 hours ago

US economy 2025
:
In what could be a defining week for the US economy, a number of critical data, political decisions, and international negotiations are converging, each with the power to shape the American economy for years to come, as per a report.
The data comes amid US President Donald Trump's economic agenda, which is facing its toughest stress test yet. From the health of the
job market
and
consumer confidence
to
inflation
trends and the
Federal Reserve
's next move on interest rates, this week could offer the clearest picture yet of whether Trump's economic gamble is paying off or pushing the country toward instability, according to a CNN report.
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Job Market: Is Trump's 'Made in America' Push Working?
Friday's July jobs report will give an indication of how American workers are faring, as per the report. So far, job growth, once a pillar of post-pandemic recovery, is showing signs of strain, according to the report. Monthly employment gains have slowed to levels not seen since 2010, excluding pandemic-era losses, as per the CNN report. Particularly troubling: manufacturing jobs, which Trump has vowed to revive, have declined for two straight months, according to the report.
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Labor Force: Deportation Policies Create Hiring Gaps
Adding to the pressure is a shrinking labor force, as foreign-born workers, who were long essential to several US industries, are deported in increasing numbers due to Trump's mass deportation move, as per CNN. That trend is raising concerns among employers and economists alike, as per the report.
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Inflation: Prices Are Rising Again — What's Fueling It?
The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, has been moving higher, which is further away from its 2% goal in recent months, which is one of the reasons behind the central bank's decision on rate cuts, as reported by CNN. While inflation cooled after the pandemic, it's now creeping higher again, fueled in part by Trump's aggressive trade policies, according to the report.
Prices for everyday goods, including furniture and back-to-school supplies, are rising as importers work through pre-tariff inventories, as reported by CNN.
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Federal Reserve Decision: Will Rates Finally Come Down?
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady after its two-day policy meeting, as reported by CNN. While Trump has repeatedly pressured Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut rates, most Fed officials say the economy can still handle higher borrowing costs, according to the report.
Unusually, two Fed governors are expected to vote against the consensus, a rare display of dissent that underscores how uncertain the path forward is, as per the CNN report.
Markets are betting the Fed will begin cutting rates in September, a move that could offer relief for homebuyers and borrowers struggling under high interest rates, according to the report. But that's far from guaranteed, especially if inflation keeps climbing, as per CNN.
GDP Outlook—Is the US Economy Growing?
The second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report is due on July 30, as per the Bureau of Economic Analysis' report. While economists expect a rebound from the surprising shrinkage seen in the first quarter, they warn that, just as an inventory spike may have artificially hurt GDP in the first quarter, companies working through their warehoused goods in the second quarter may make the economy look better than it actually is, as reported by CNN.
Tariff Deadline: What Happens When the Pause Ends?
Another important moment of the week may come on Friday, when Trump's pause on sweeping tariffs is set to expire, as per the report. The president has promised to send letters to more than 200 countries, setting unilateral tariff rates that could range from 10% to 20% or more, as per CNN.
Markets are watching closely. Economists say any increase above current average tariff levels, now near 18%, the highest since 1934, could rattle Wall Street and weigh heavily on consumers, according to the report.
Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet Chinese officials this week to finalise the details of the framework the two countries agreed upon at their London and Geneva meetings, as reported by CNN. The trade framework with China came after months of tariff sparring that nearly shut down commerce between the two superpowers, as per the report. Both countries agreed to pause their respective 145% and 125% tariffs until August 12, reported CNN.
On Thursday, the US Court of Appeals will hear arguments on whether Trump legally used emergency powers to impose his tariffs after a lower court ruled he had exceeded his authority in doing so, reported CNN.
FAQs
What's happening with Trump's tariffs?
A pause expires this Friday. Trump plans to set new rates for over 200 countries, possibly raising costs for consumers.
How do Trump's deportation policies affect jobs?
They're shrinking the labor force, making it harder for businesses to hire, especially in agriculture and manufacturing.