
The Labour plot to bring down Morgan McSweeney... and then Rachel Reeves
Sir Keir Starmer's original plan for his flagship welfare cuts bill lies in tatters, and, if some Labour rebels have their way, the career of the Prime Minister's divisive chief of staff Morgan McSweeney will go with it.
Not since Labour got into power nearly a year ago has there been such naked plotting against senior figures in Number 10. McSweeney is the main target, though there are dark murmurings about forcing a wider clear-out of his centrist acolytes – and there are Labour MPs who are hoping the ultimate casualty of the infighting will be the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves.
Such is the level of fury directed at the Downing Street operation from the Labour backbenches that even Sir Keir's own future as leader is a matter of debate. For the first time, following his humiliating climbdown on welfare cuts, some bookmakers now have him odds-on to be replaced before the next election.
The toxicity within Labour may not yet be at the level it was during the Corbyn years, but it is heading in that direction, and McSweeney – regarded by many as Sir Keir's political brain – has become the lens through which the party's deep divisions are now being exposed.
Despite a supposed clear out of Corbynites before the last election (overseen by McSweeney himself), plenty of stubborn Left-wingers remain, including members of the 2024 intake of Labour MPs who are now part of the rebellion against the welfare bill.
On Thursday night it emerged that Sir Keir had made huge concessions, including exempting existing disability benefit claimants from his planned cuts. Hardliners are still demanding he go further and could yet vote against the bill.
Many of the rebels blame McSweeney for what they regard as Right-wing policies designed to stop working-class Labour voters leaching away to Reform UK, including welfare cuts, and hold him responsible for steering Sir Keir in what they see as the wrong direction.
Speculation over McSweeney's position was further ramped up by Downing Street's refusal on Thursday to say whether Sir Keir still had full confidence in him. 'We would never comment on members of Downing Street staff,' a Number 10 spokesman said. 'The Prime Minister is fully focused on the job in hand.'
One Labour rebel said: 'I think the people driving [the welfare bill] aren't elected individuals. Rachel [Reeves] is definitely a part of it, that part of the party, but it's Morgan and [Parliamentary Labour Party secretary] Matt Faulding and others in the Number 10 operation that are driving this.'
McSweeney's detractors are not confined to Left-wingers or rebels. One Starmer loyalist on the Right of the party said: 'McSweeney is an arrogant s--- and if you believe you are God's gift and you know it all, then you don't consult with people who have had the experience in the past to help you come up with the right answers.'
Officials and Labour staff whisper about McSweeney's supposedly messianic ability to understand voters and what they want from a political party.
He sits at the centre of the Downing Street operation, directing both policy and political strategy with the help of a core group of aides.
Those who have worked with McSweeney say that, despite his reputation as a factional mob boss, he speaks softly, cares for his colleagues and can be fun to be around. He likes Star Wars, keeps cats with his wife (the Labour MP Imogen Walker) and speaks fondly of his home in County Cork.
In group meetings he tends to intervene rarely, preferring to listen to colleagues and hold one-on-one conversations later to give his feedback.
Outside of the office, staff say they genuinely enjoy his company. At special-adviser events, usually held in a Westminster pub, he drinks beer and joins in banter about the news of the day. 'He gives as good as he gets,' a Government source has said.
As Sir Keir's most trusted aide, he has also been tasked with becoming friendly with some of the more troublesome Cabinet ministers who are outside the Starmerite fold. They include Angela Rayner, the woman directly elected as Labour's deputy leader by party members, who would probably not have been chosen for the role by Sir Keir.
'Morgan is a bit of an Ange whisperer,' a party source has said. McSweeney also gets on with Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy and Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who are thought to be harbouring leadership ambitions of their own.
Sir Keir is reluctant to bow to pressure to sack McSweeney for several reasons. When the 48-year-old Irishman was head of the think thank Labour Together, he masterminded the campaign to oust Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader and replace him with Sir Keir. Ruthless on policy, McSweeney is a man without whom the lawyerly Sir Keir would be seriously, even mortally, weakened.
Having already lost his original chief of staff, Sue Gray, following an earlier round of infighting, sacking McSweeney would also amount to an admission by Sir Keir that he had taken his eye off the ball, adding to the sense of chaos hanging over Downing Street.
Starmerites – including Reeves, Streeting and Minister for Intergovernmental Relations Pat McFadden – believe that McSweeney, like Boris Johnson's chief aide Dominic Cummings, is unfairly being singled out for criticism simply because he is the best-known aide in Downing Street.
McSweeney is the most powerful political official in the Government, whose influence among unelected staff is matched only by the Cabinet Secretary.
His supporters believe that other Downing Street aides are more culpable for the looming defeat (or climbdown) over the welfare bill. They point in particular to Claire Reynolds, a former aide to Tony Blair and Gordon Brown (and wife of Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds). As Number 10 political director, she is in charge of communications between Downing Street and backbench MPs and is the person, some say, who should have seen the rebellion coming.
One Whitehall source admits: 'When you have so many MPs [Labour currently has 403], inevitably some of them feel they aren't getting enough attention from Number 10 and they aren't being listened to.
'For a lot of them, this rebellion is their way of putting a line in the sand and saying 'You will have to listen to us now'. For some of them, having a go at Morgan is just a way of avoiding having to criticise Keir because they can say he was just badly advised.'
Others have identified dysfunction in the Number 10 policy unit, which is jointly run by its director Stuart Ingham, who has urged caution over the benefit cuts, and Liz Lloyd, head of policy delivery and formerly deputy chief of staff to Blair, who is bullish about them.
Lloyd is seen as a potential replacement for McSweeney should he be ousted. Another name in the frame is Jonathan Powell, Blair's long-serving chief of staff, who, as the current National Security Adviser, has been credited with Sir Keir's foreign policy wins. Sir Keir may be reluctant, though, to move him from a role where he has quickly become indispensable.
The fact that Labour MPs, including some Starmer loyalists, are willing to debate possible replacements for McSweeney is itself an indication of how much pressure he is currently under. 'Keir has shafted people before,' said one ally of the Prime Minister. 'He tends to take a long time to decide to do it, but he can then be absolutely ruthless.'
What is striking in conversations with Labour MPs and aides is how often they bring up the name of Rachel Reeves when they are asked about McSweeney's position. Many of them blame her directly for the mess Labour is in over its domestic policies, while others believe she has painted herself into a corner economically. Those on the Left, who want even higher taxes and even higher spending, are hoping to create a domino effect in which all of those they blame for the welfare bill are eventually toppled.
One Labour MP says: 'I spoke to a minister yesterday who said Starmer probably has one chance, and his chance to survive this period is to ditch Rachel and McSweeney. And there's one thing, as they said to me, that Keir is good at, which is pivoting, and he now needs to pivot to where the party and the base is.'
Left-wingers like to point out that Sir Keir only won his landslide victory because Tory voters stayed at home, and that Labour got more votes and a higher vote share under Corbyn in 2017. Hence, they say, Corbyn had more support from the public than Sir Keir.
They regard the current crisis as the inevitable pushback against the 'command and control' style of government favoured by McSweeney. Until now, McSweeney has managed to hold back the swell of dissatisfaction with Number 10, but the dam has finally burst.
The same MP says: 'Someone's basically pointed at the emperor's new clothes, and that's the problem for them now, because you can't come back from this. No one's going to come out at this moment and say Keir has to go. But there are people, definitely, who can see that Rachel and Morgan and the operation around Keir has to change.'
The Chancellor could even be in more peril than McSweeney. Any significant concessions on benefits will only add to her fiscal black hole, which is currently estimated to stand at between £20-30 billion.
With the cost of a benefits U-turn, the abolition of the two-child benefit cap (a policy the Government says it 'will look at'), the reversal on winter fuel payments and a pledge to spend more on defence, Reeves has some major spending commitments to fund.
Meanwhile, the Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to revise its UK productivity forecasts before the autumn Budget, potentially cutting the Treasury's bottom line by another £7-8 billion. That might leave her with no choice but to change the Government's fiscal rules on borrowing – which she has said she will not do – or increase income tax, National Insurance or VAT, which she has also previously ruled out.
Out of options and out of time, there are some who feel she will leave the Government or be pushed out. The departure of a Chancellor, as history has shown, is often the precursor to the departure of their neighbour in Number 10.
Sir Keir's closest supporters, of course, insist the current speculation over his future, and that of Reeves and McSweeney, is overblown and has been whipped up by a relatively small number of backbenchers. A Government source says: 'Everyone in the [Parliamentary Labour Party] owes Morgan and Keir everything and their jobs, and the level of disloyalty from them is terrible. They stood on a manifesto backed by Keir and his team, and they won.
'Welfare reform is popular with the country, we need to start catering to our members and voters.'
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