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Defeated team Starmer's fury at rebel 'pr**ks': PM benefits surrender triggers civil war that insiders claim could be the 'death knell of the party'
Defeated team Starmer's fury at rebel 'pr**ks': PM benefits surrender triggers civil war that insiders claim could be the 'death knell of the party'

Daily Mail​

time21 hours ago

  • Business
  • Daily Mail​

Defeated team Starmer's fury at rebel 'pr**ks': PM benefits surrender triggers civil war that insiders claim could be the 'death knell of the party'

Keir Starmer is wrestling to restore his grip on Labour today as loyalists vent fury at rebel 'pr**ks' who forced his latest U-turn. Tensions are running high after a massive revolt saw the PM offer major concessions to salvage flagship legislation on health and disability benefits. Sir Keir was left personally begging MPs to back the government after more than 120 MPs vowed to kill the plans in a crunch vote on Tuesday. A deal announced after midnight includes guarantees that existing claimants will not lose money. It is expected to wipe out around £3billion of the £5billion savings the Treasury had hoped to get from the reforms - hardening fears that Rachel Reeves will have to hike taxes again in the Autumn. There have been claims of shouting matches between whips and rebels, with much fury targeted at Sir Keir's chief of staff Morgan McSweeney and 'over-excitable boys' running No10. Some critics have even demanded 'regime change', eliciting an humiliating public denial from the PM that he might have to quit after failing to 'read the room'. A Cabinet source told MailOnline that No10 had been wrong to sell the plans initially as a package of cuts, even though polls showed that was popular with the public. 'They should have stressed to MPs it was the only way ensure the welfare state still exists in a few years,' the source added. Rachel Reeves was already struggling to balance the books with the economy stalling and the previous U-turn on winter fuel allowance There have been claims of shouting matched between whips and rebels, with much fury targeted at Sir Keir's chief of staff Morgan McSweeney and 'over-excitable boys' running No10 One Labour veteran told MailOnline that new MPs had proved harder to talk around. 'There are some who think this is going to be their only term in government now, so why give up on principles,' they said. Government insiders were taken aback by the intensity of the revolt, but voiced optimism that the situation was now back under control. Acknowledging tempers had frayed, they suggested both sides had been engaging constructively by last night. 'It's the Parliamentary Labour,' one added. 'It has cleared the air.' Underlining the animosity that had erupted in recent days, a Cabinet source told the Times: 'I cannot express the disdain I have for these stupid pr**ks who knocked a few doors and think they're JFK because Keir ran the best election campaign in 30 years.' Another Downing Street insider reportedly said: 'It's deeply unserious stuff from deeply unserious people. They are sounding the death knell of the Labour Party and they don't even realise it.' Despite the sound and fury in Labour ranks, the concessions look like being enough to prevent a disastrous defeat for the government at second reading. However, the changes are estimated to wipe more than £3billion off the £5billion savings by the end of the Parliament. That would be made up of £2billion for Personal Independence Payment (Pip) and another £1billion for the Universal Credit tweaks. Ms Reeves was already struggling to balance the books with the economy stalling and the previous U-turn on winter fuel allowance. Ruth Curtice of the Resolution Foundation think-tank suggested Ms Reeves will not be able to find the money in existing budgets. 'That leaves only extra borrowing - which the Chancellor doesn't have much space for unless she were to change her own fiscal rules - or tax rises,' she told BBC Radio 4's Today programme. Asked if that effectively meant there would be tax rises, Ms Curtice said: 'Yeah. Unless the government were to get better news on the economy the next time the OBR does a forecast... but when we look at everything that's happened in the world since they last did that in March our estimate is that they will actually get bad news from the OBR as well.' Challenged how the costs would be covered, health minister Stephen Kinnock told Times Radio: 'The full details around what we are laying out, what I've summarised really today, is going to be laid out in Parliament, and then the Chancellor will set out the budget in the autumn the whole of the fiscal position and this will be an important part of that. 'But forgive me, I'm not in a position to set those figures out now. 'I think that is very much the Chancellor's job as we move into the budget in the autumn.' Unveiling the concessions overnight, a spokesperson for Number 10 said: 'We have listened to MPs who support the principle of reform but are worried about the pace of change for those already supported by the system. 'This package will preserve the social security system for those who need it by putting it on a sustainable footing, provide dignity for those unable to work, supports those who can and reduce anxiety for those currently in the system. 'Our reforms are underpinned by Labour values and our determination to deliver the change the country voted for last year.' The Government's original package restricted eligibility for the personal independence payment (Pip), the main disability payment in England, and limited the sickness-related element of universal credit. Existing claimants were to be given a 13-week phase-out period of financial support in an earlier move that was seen as a bid to head off opposition by aiming to soften the impact of the changes. In her letter, the Work and Pensions Secretary said: 'We recognise the proposed changes have been a source of uncertainty and anxiety. 'We will ensure that all of those currently receiving PIP will stay within the current system. The new eligibility requirements will be implemented from November 2026 for new claims only. 'Secondly, we will adjust the pathway of Universal Credit payment rates to make sure all existing recipients of the UC health element – and any new claimant meeting the severe conditions criteria – have their incomes fully protected in real terms.' She said a ministerial review would ensure the benefit is 'fair and fit for the future' and will be a 'coproduction' with disabled people, organisations which represent them and MPs. 'These important reforms are rooted in Labour values, and we want to get them right,' she said. The change in Pip payments would protect some 370,000 existing claimants who were expected to lose out following reassessment. If the legislation clears its first hurdle on Tuesday, it will then face a few hours' examination by all MPs the following week – rather than days or weeks in front of a committee tasked with looking at the Bill. The so-called 'reasoned amendment' tabled by Treasury select committee chairwoman Dame Meg Hillier had argued that disabled people have not been properly consulted and further scrutiny of the changes is needed. She said: 'This is a good deal. It is massive changes to ensure the most vulnerable people are protected… and, crucially, involving disabled people themselves in the design of future benefit changes.' While the concessions look set to reassure some of those who had been leading the rebellion, other MPs remained opposed before the announcement.

The Labour plot to bring down Morgan McSweeney... and then Rachel Reeves
The Labour plot to bring down Morgan McSweeney... and then Rachel Reeves

Telegraph

timea day ago

  • Politics
  • Telegraph

The Labour plot to bring down Morgan McSweeney... and then Rachel Reeves

Sir Keir Starmer's original plan for his flagship welfare cuts bill lies in tatters, and, if some Labour rebels have their way, the career of the Prime Minister's divisive chief of staff Morgan McSweeney will go with it. Not since Labour got into power nearly a year ago has there been such naked plotting against senior figures in Number 10. McSweeney is the main target, though there are dark murmurings about forcing a wider clear-out of his centrist acolytes – and there are Labour MPs who are hoping the ultimate casualty of the infighting will be the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves. Such is the level of fury directed at the Downing Street operation from the Labour backbenches that even Sir Keir's own future as leader is a matter of debate. For the first time, following his humiliating climbdown on welfare cuts, some bookmakers now have him odds-on to be replaced before the next election. The toxicity within Labour may not yet be at the level it was during the Corbyn years, but it is heading in that direction, and McSweeney – regarded by many as Sir Keir's political brain – has become the lens through which the party's deep divisions are now being exposed. Despite a supposed clear out of Corbynites before the last election (overseen by McSweeney himself), plenty of stubborn Left-wingers remain, including members of the 2024 intake of Labour MPs who are now part of the rebellion against the welfare bill. On Thursday night it emerged that Sir Keir had made huge concessions, including exempting existing disability benefit claimants from his planned cuts. Hardliners are still demanding he go further and could yet vote against the bill. Many of the rebels blame McSweeney for what they regard as Right-wing policies designed to stop working-class Labour voters leaching away to Reform UK, including welfare cuts, and hold him responsible for steering Sir Keir in what they see as the wrong direction. Speculation over McSweeney's position was further ramped up by Downing Street's refusal on Thursday to say whether Sir Keir still had full confidence in him. 'We would never comment on members of Downing Street staff,' a Number 10 spokesman said. 'The Prime Minister is fully focused on the job in hand.' One Labour rebel said: 'I think the people driving [the welfare bill] aren't elected individuals. Rachel [Reeves] is definitely a part of it, that part of the party, but it's Morgan and [Parliamentary Labour Party secretary] Matt Faulding and others in the Number 10 operation that are driving this.' McSweeney's detractors are not confined to Left-wingers or rebels. One Starmer loyalist on the Right of the party said: 'McSweeney is an arrogant s--- and if you believe you are God's gift and you know it all, then you don't consult with people who have had the experience in the past to help you come up with the right answers.' Officials and Labour staff whisper about McSweeney's supposedly messianic ability to understand voters and what they want from a political party. He sits at the centre of the Downing Street operation, directing both policy and political strategy with the help of a core group of aides. Those who have worked with McSweeney say that, despite his reputation as a factional mob boss, he speaks softly, cares for his colleagues and can be fun to be around. He likes Star Wars, keeps cats with his wife (the Labour MP Imogen Walker) and speaks fondly of his home in County Cork. In group meetings he tends to intervene rarely, preferring to listen to colleagues and hold one-on-one conversations later to give his feedback. Outside of the office, staff say they genuinely enjoy his company. At special-adviser events, usually held in a Westminster pub, he drinks beer and joins in banter about the news of the day. 'He gives as good as he gets,' a Government source has said. As Sir Keir's most trusted aide, he has also been tasked with becoming friendly with some of the more troublesome Cabinet ministers who are outside the Starmerite fold. They include Angela Rayner, the woman directly elected as Labour's deputy leader by party members, who would probably not have been chosen for the role by Sir Keir. 'Morgan is a bit of an Ange whisperer,' a party source has said. McSweeney also gets on with Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy and Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who are thought to be harbouring leadership ambitions of their own. Sir Keir is reluctant to bow to pressure to sack McSweeney for several reasons. When the 48-year-old Irishman was head of the think thank Labour Together, he masterminded the campaign to oust Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader and replace him with Sir Keir. Ruthless on policy, McSweeney is a man without whom the lawyerly Sir Keir would be seriously, even mortally, weakened. Having already lost his original chief of staff, Sue Gray, following an earlier round of infighting, sacking McSweeney would also amount to an admission by Sir Keir that he had taken his eye off the ball, adding to the sense of chaos hanging over Downing Street. Starmerites – including Reeves, Streeting and Minister for Intergovernmental Relations Pat McFadden – believe that McSweeney, like Boris Johnson's chief aide Dominic Cummings, is unfairly being singled out for criticism simply because he is the best-known aide in Downing Street. McSweeney is the most powerful political official in the Government, whose influence among unelected staff is matched only by the Cabinet Secretary. His supporters believe that other Downing Street aides are more culpable for the looming defeat (or climbdown) over the welfare bill. They point in particular to Claire Reynolds, a former aide to Tony Blair and Gordon Brown (and wife of Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds). As Number 10 political director, she is in charge of communications between Downing Street and backbench MPs and is the person, some say, who should have seen the rebellion coming. One Whitehall source admits: 'When you have so many MPs [Labour currently has 403], inevitably some of them feel they aren't getting enough attention from Number 10 and they aren't being listened to. 'For a lot of them, this rebellion is their way of putting a line in the sand and saying 'You will have to listen to us now'. For some of them, having a go at Morgan is just a way of avoiding having to criticise Keir because they can say he was just badly advised.' Others have identified dysfunction in the Number 10 policy unit, which is jointly run by its director Stuart Ingham, who has urged caution over the benefit cuts, and Liz Lloyd, head of policy delivery and formerly deputy chief of staff to Blair, who is bullish about them. Lloyd is seen as a potential replacement for McSweeney should he be ousted. Another name in the frame is Jonathan Powell, Blair's long-serving chief of staff, who, as the current National Security Adviser, has been credited with Sir Keir's foreign policy wins. Sir Keir may be reluctant, though, to move him from a role where he has quickly become indispensable. The fact that Labour MPs, including some Starmer loyalists, are willing to debate possible replacements for McSweeney is itself an indication of how much pressure he is currently under. 'Keir has shafted people before,' said one ally of the Prime Minister. 'He tends to take a long time to decide to do it, but he can then be absolutely ruthless.' What is striking in conversations with Labour MPs and aides is how often they bring up the name of Rachel Reeves when they are asked about McSweeney's position. Many of them blame her directly for the mess Labour is in over its domestic policies, while others believe she has painted herself into a corner economically. Those on the Left, who want even higher taxes and even higher spending, are hoping to create a domino effect in which all of those they blame for the welfare bill are eventually toppled. One Labour MP says: 'I spoke to a minister yesterday who said Starmer probably has one chance, and his chance to survive this period is to ditch Rachel and McSweeney. And there's one thing, as they said to me, that Keir is good at, which is pivoting, and he now needs to pivot to where the party and the base is.' Left-wingers like to point out that Sir Keir only won his landslide victory because Tory voters stayed at home, and that Labour got more votes and a higher vote share under Corbyn in 2017. Hence, they say, Corbyn had more support from the public than Sir Keir. They regard the current crisis as the inevitable pushback against the 'command and control' style of government favoured by McSweeney. Until now, McSweeney has managed to hold back the swell of dissatisfaction with Number 10, but the dam has finally burst. The same MP says: 'Someone's basically pointed at the emperor's new clothes, and that's the problem for them now, because you can't come back from this. No one's going to come out at this moment and say Keir has to go. But there are people, definitely, who can see that Rachel and Morgan and the operation around Keir has to change.' The Chancellor could even be in more peril than McSweeney. Any significant concessions on benefits will only add to her fiscal black hole, which is currently estimated to stand at between £20-30 billion. With the cost of a benefits U-turn, the abolition of the two-child benefit cap (a policy the Government says it 'will look at'), the reversal on winter fuel payments and a pledge to spend more on defence, Reeves has some major spending commitments to fund. Meanwhile, the Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to revise its UK productivity forecasts before the autumn Budget, potentially cutting the Treasury's bottom line by another £7-8 billion. That might leave her with no choice but to change the Government's fiscal rules on borrowing – which she has said she will not do – or increase income tax, National Insurance or VAT, which she has also previously ruled out. Out of options and out of time, there are some who feel she will leave the Government or be pushed out. The departure of a Chancellor, as history has shown, is often the precursor to the departure of their neighbour in Number 10. Sir Keir's closest supporters, of course, insist the current speculation over his future, and that of Reeves and McSweeney, is overblown and has been whipped up by a relatively small number of backbenchers. A Government source says: 'Everyone in the [Parliamentary Labour Party] owes Morgan and Keir everything and their jobs, and the level of disloyalty from them is terrible. They stood on a manifesto backed by Keir and his team, and they won. 'Welfare reform is popular with the country, we need to start catering to our members and voters.'

Starmer's Labour party in turmoil as his Irish chief of staff becomes the villain of the UK left
Starmer's Labour party in turmoil as his Irish chief of staff becomes the villain of the UK left

The Journal

timea day ago

  • Business
  • The Journal

Starmer's Labour party in turmoil as his Irish chief of staff becomes the villain of the UK left

AFTER WINNING A stunning electoral victory just under a year ago, the UK Labour Party has been roiled by divisions this week over Prime Minister Keir Starmer's proposed cuts to social welfare payments. Starmer has now reversed course on his planned cuts to sickness and disability supports, an issue that had become emblematic of the ideological divisions in his party. Only days after the Labour leader insisted he would plough ahead with the reforms, Social Care Minister Stephen Kinnock confirmed concessions had been made to 'rebel' MPs who had threatened to scupper the bill's progress. A total 126 of Labour's more than 400 MPs publicly backed a move to block the proposals, forcing the the government into its latest U-turn. The new reversal on welfare payments would protect some 370,000 existing claimants who were expected to lose out. The cuts, as they were first proposed, would have taken away benefits amounting to about £5 billion. Speaking in the House of Commons on Wednesday, Starmer told MPs he wanted the reforms to reflect 'Labour values of fairness' and that discussions about the changes would continue over the coming days. He insisted there was 'consensus across the House on the urgent need for reform' of the 'broken' welfare system. Starmer previously felt the anger of the left wing of his party when it came to his first budget, and changed tack when it came to the UK's winter fuel allowance and the two-child benefit cap. The welfare bill will be up for debate again next Tuesday, when MPs will have their first opportunity to support or reject it. Starmer's chief of staff Morgan McSweeney Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo A spokesperson for Starmer's office said: 'We have listened to MPs who support the principle of reform but are worried about the pace of change for those already supported by the system.' 'Our reforms are underpinned by Labour values and our determination to deliver the change the country voted for last year. Starmer's chief of staff, Irishman Morgan McSweeney, who has been credited as the brains behind Labour's general election victory, has emerged as a primary target for Labour 'rebels'. Advertisement Those MPs have been pointing to McSweeney as the main influence behind Starmer's austerity measures and Starmer's rightward shift more generally. 'They just kept saying that MPs were in a different place from the public on benefit cuts and we'd just have to tough it out,' one MP who signed the blocking amendment told The Guardian this week. 'But we speak to our constituents all the time and many of them are terrified. They just don't get it.' Another MP was reported describing McSweeney and his team in 10 Downing Street as running around 'like extras in The Thick of It', a reference to the satirical TV series about UK politics. Outside of economic policy, Starmer has also angered large portions of his party with his crackdown on immigration and massive increases in military spending. In a speech he delivered earlier this year, Starmer echoed the infamous 'Rivers of Blood' speech made by the anti-immigration Conservative MP Enoch Powell in the 1960s. Starmer said Britain risked becoming 'an island of strangers' due to high levels of immigration. Starmer said today that he 'deeply' regretted using the phrase. On top of that, he has angered anti-war Labour supporters with his approach to foreign policy, particularly UK support for Israel and the repressive measures taken against protesters – as well as calling for the Irish band Kneecap to be excluded from the line-up at the Glastonbury music festival. Starmer has also committed to spending £15 billion on upgrading the UK's nuclear weapons while making simultaneously pushing cuts to welfare spending. All of these issues have highlighted Starmer's general rightward shift since assuming the premiership, a continuation of his approach to leading Labour after taking over from Jeremy Corbyn, which was widely characterised as a 'purge' of the left wing of the party. Since winning the general election last year, when they defeated an abject Conservative Party, Labour has seen its popularity outstripped by Nigel Farage's right-wing Reform UK. Many have seen Labour's lurch to the right as a reaction to that surge in support for the far right, but it seems that courting conservative voters is coming at the expense of Labour's progressive base. Labour may well end up appealing to neither next time Britons go to the polls. Readers like you are keeping these stories free for everyone... A mix of advertising and supporting contributions helps keep paywalls away from valuable information like this article. Over 5,000 readers like you have already stepped up and support us with a monthly payment or a once-off donation. Learn More Support The Journal

Starmer loyalists vent fury at rebel 'pr**ks' who forced benefits U-turn as Labour threatens to descend into civil war
Starmer loyalists vent fury at rebel 'pr**ks' who forced benefits U-turn as Labour threatens to descend into civil war

Daily Mail​

timea day ago

  • Business
  • Daily Mail​

Starmer loyalists vent fury at rebel 'pr**ks' who forced benefits U-turn as Labour threatens to descend into civil war

Keir Starmer is wrestling to restore his grip on Labour today as loyalists vent fury at rebel 'pr**ks' who forced his latest U-turn. Tensions are running high after a massive revolt saw the PM offer major concessions to salvage flagship legislation on health and disability benefits. Sir Keir was left personally begging MPs to back the government after more than 120 MPs vowed to kill the plans in a crunch vote on Tuesday. A deal announced after midnight includes guarantees that existing claimants will not lose money. It is expected to wipe out around £3billion of the £5billion savings the Treasury had hoped to get from the reforms - hardening fears that Rachel Reeves will have to hike taxes again in the Autumn. There have been claims of shouting matches between whips and rebels, with much fury targeted at Sir Keir's chief of staff Morgan McSweeney and 'over-excitable boys' running No10. Some critics have even demanded 'regime change', eliciting an humiliating public denial from the PM that he might have to quit after failing to 'read the room'. A Cabinet source told MailOnline that No10 had been wrong to sell the plans initially as a package of cuts, even though polls showed that was popular with the public. 'They should have stressed to MPs it was the only way ensure the welfare state still exists in a few years,' the source added. Rachel Reeves was already struggling to balance the books with the economy stalling and the previous U-turn on winter fuel allowance One Labour veteran told MailOnline that new MPs had proved harder to talk around. 'There are some who think this is going to be their only term in government now, so why give up on principles,' they said. Government insiders were taken aback by the intensity of the revolt, but voiced optimism that the situation was now back under control. Acknowledging tempers had frayed, they suggested both sides had been engaging constructively by last night. 'It's the Parliamentary Labour,' one added. 'It has cleared the air.' Underlining the animosity that had erupted in recent days, a Cabinet source told the Times: 'I cannot express the disdain I have for these stupid pr**ks who knocked a few doors and think they're JFK because Keir ran the best election campaign in 30 years.' Another Downing Street insider reportedly said: 'It's deeply unserious stuff from deeply unserious people. They are sounding the death knell of the Labour Party and they don't even realise it.' Despite the sound and fury in Labour ranks, the concessions look like being enough to prevent a disastrous defeat for the government at second reading. However, the changes are estimated to wipe more than £3billion off the £5billion savings by the end of the Parliament. That would be made up of £2billion for Personal Independence Payment (Pip) and another £1billion for the Universal Credit tweaks. Ms Reeves was already struggling to balance the books with the economy stalling and the previous U-turn on winter fuel allowance. Ruth Curtice of the Resolution Foundation think-tank suggested Ms Reeves will not be able to find the money in existing budgets. 'That leaves only extra borrowing - which the Chancellor doesn't have much space for unless she were to change her own fiscal rules - or tax rises,' she told BBC Radio 4's Today programme. Asked if that effectively meant there would be tax rises, Ms Curtice said: 'Yeah. Unless the government were to get better news on the economy the next time the OBR does a forecast... but when we look at everything that's happened in the world since they last did that in March our estimate is that they will actually get bad news from the OBR as well.' Challenged how the costs would be covered, health minister Stephen Kinnock told Times Radio: 'The full details around what we are laying out, what I've summarised really today, is going to be laid out in Parliament, and then the Chancellor will set out the budget in the autumn the whole of the fiscal position and this will be an important part of that. 'But forgive me, I'm not in a position to set those figures out now. 'I think that is very much the Chancellor's job as we move into the budget in the autumn.' Unveiling the concessions overnight, a spokesperson for Number 10 said: 'We have listened to MPs who support the principle of reform but are worried about the pace of change for those already supported by the system. 'This package will preserve the social security system for those who need it by putting it on a sustainable footing, provide dignity for those unable to work, supports those who can and reduce anxiety for those currently in the system. 'Our reforms are underpinned by Labour values and our determination to deliver the change the country voted for last year.' The Government's original package restricted eligibility for the personal independence payment (Pip), the main disability payment in England, and limited the sickness-related element of universal credit. Existing claimants were to be given a 13-week phase-out period of financial support in an earlier move that was seen as a bid to head off opposition by aiming to soften the impact of the changes. In her letter, the Work and Pensions Secretary said: 'We recognise the proposed changes have been a source of uncertainty and anxiety. 'We will ensure that all of those currently receiving PIP will stay within the current system. The new eligibility requirements will be implemented from November 2026 for new claims only. 'Secondly, we will adjust the pathway of Universal Credit payment rates to make sure all existing recipients of the UC health element – and any new claimant meeting the severe conditions criteria – have their incomes fully protected in real terms.' She said a ministerial review would ensure the benefit is 'fair and fit for the future' and will be a 'coproduction' with disabled people, organisations which represent them and MPs. 'These important reforms are rooted in Labour values, and we want to get them right,' she said. The change in Pip payments would protect some 370,000 existing claimants who were expected to lose out following reassessment. If the legislation clears its first hurdle on Tuesday, it will then face a few hours' examination by all MPs the following week – rather than days or weeks in front of a committee tasked with looking at the Bill. The so-called 'reasoned amendment' tabled by Treasury select committee chairwoman Dame Meg Hillier had argued that disabled people have not been properly consulted and further scrutiny of the changes is needed. She said: 'This is a good deal. It is massive changes to ensure the most vulnerable people are protected… and, crucially, involving disabled people themselves in the design of future benefit changes.' While the concessions look set to reassure some of those who had been leading the rebellion, other MPs remained opposed before the announcement.

Third U-turn in a month leaves Keir Starmer diminished
Third U-turn in a month leaves Keir Starmer diminished

The Guardian

timea day ago

  • Politics
  • The Guardian

Third U-turn in a month leaves Keir Starmer diminished

After his third U-turn this month, Keir Starmer will hope he has done enough to avoid a humiliating first Commons defeat as prime minister on Tuesday, even if he is now a diminished figure in front of his party and the country. Over Wednesday night and Thursday, Starmer's chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, and his deputy, Angela Rayner, sat down with leading rebels and agreed a series of changes to the government's welfare bill that ministers hope will be enough to get it over the line. Those changes are likely to be significant enough to win over the support of dozens of moderates who had signed an amendment that would have put the bill on hold indefinitely. But they have damaged the prime minister's reputation for embracing tough reforms, and his chancellor's reputation for fiscal probity. Stephen Kinnock, the health minister, said on Friday: 'Keir Starmer is a prime minister who doesn't put change and reform into the too-difficult box. He actually runs towards it and says: 'Right, how do we fix it?' And I'm sure that that's what will be foremost in people's minds on Tuesday.' Meg Hillier, one of the leading rebels, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: 'We're going to see some of the fine detail of this on Monday. We're expecting a written ministerial statement from the government, so we will get more detail then. But I think, in my view, we got as much as we can get in the time frame involved.' But others have spotted weakness. Helen Whately, the Conservative spokesperson on work and pensions, said: 'This is another humiliating U-turn forced upon Keir Starmer … The latest 'deal' with Labour rebels sounds a lot like a two-tier benefits system, more likely to encourage anyone already on benefits to stay there rather than get into work.' For the prime minister, this is the third time he has reversed course in recent weeks in the face of pressure from outside. Sign up to Headlines UK Get the day's headlines and highlights emailed direct to you every morning after newsletter promotion Earlier this month his chancellor, Rachel Reeves, announced she was undoing most of the cuts to winter fuel payments after a sustained political backlash. Just over a week ago, the prime minister told reporters on the way to the G7 in Canada he was dropping his opposition to a national inquiry into grooming gangs after one was recommended by Louise Casey. This week's decision to change key parts of the welfare bill could prove the most expensive of all three. Ministers will now limit their cuts so they only apply to new claimants and have also promised to lift the health element of universal credit in line with inflation. Along with promises to increase spending on back-to-work schemes and to redesign the entire system of Personal Independence Payments (Pips), the Resolution Foundation estimates the entire U-turn could end up costing £3bn. Reeves will set out the full costs of the package, and how she intends to pay for them, at the budget in the autumn. Asked about the cost of the U-turn on Friday, Kinnock would only say: 'Matters of the budget are for the chancellor, and she will be bringing forward a budget in the autumn.' But it is not just the cost of the immediate changes that Reeves will have to measure. Now she and the prime minister have developed a reputation for changing course in the face of backbench resistance, the chancellor is likely to come under heavy pressure over other issues Labour MPs care deeply about. Hillier said on Friday the prime minister would now have to listen more carefully to his parliamentary colleagues. 'There is huge talent, experience and knowledge in parliament, and it's important it's better listened to. And I think that message has landed.' Top of many Labour MPs' wishlist is an end to the two-child benefit cap. Starmer agrees on the importance of removing that cap altogether, but doing so would cost as much as £3.6bn a year by the end of the parliament. This is why, as the government's spending commitments grow, ministers are refusing to rule out tax rises this autumn. As Starmer has found out this week, angering nearly a third of your MPs is a costly business.

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