Embraer: Asia-Pacific to propel global aviation, aircraft demand growth

The Sun

15-06-2025

PETALING JAYA: The Asia-Pacific region stands at the heart of global aviation's most dynamic growth, with airlines set to face both opportunities and complex challenges over the next two decades as they seek to connect rapidly expanding populations, serve new destinations and adapt to shifting market demands.
According to Embraer's Market Outlook for 2025, Asia-Pacific will account for 39% of global air traffic by 2044, making it the world's largest aviation market and a magnet for new investment.
The report said demand for air travel in the Asia-Pacific is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 4.1% through 2044, driven by a combination of steady economic expansion, rising middle-class populations and increasing consumer appetite for travel and tourism.
In emerging markets – such as those in Asean and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) – economic growth is especially robust.
Despite this potential, airlines in the Asia-Pacific region remain highly concentrated in a few key markets.
The Embraer report noted that between 30% and 35% of all flights in Asean and SAARC countries operate at the top five airports, compared to just 15% in North America and Western Europe, which boast broader, more diverse networks.
This concentration has led to intense competition, price wars, and thin profit margins – Asia-Pacific airlines collectively reported a mere 1.3% profit margin in 2024.
The region still has more than 1,000 low-density and 350 mid-density markets, many of which are underserved or served by just one airline, it said.
Embraer noted that the path to profitability lies in right-sizing aircraft fleets and expanding beyond congested hubs.
Airlines that deploy up-to-150-seat jets and turboprops can unlock new routes, increase frequencies and better match capacity to demand. In fact, Embraer forecasts demand for 1,050 new up-to-150-seat jets and 640 turboprops in the Asia-Pacific through 2044, supporting both network expansion and sustainability goals.
In mature markets such as Japan, South Korea and Australia, the up-to-150-seat segment is already critical to maintaining robust domestic and regional connectivity, especially as populations stabilise or decline and airlines seek more efficient operations.
Beyond the region, Embraer noted that, while Asia-Pacific leads in growth and scale, other regions are also shaping the future of aviation, each with unique opportunities and challenges.
The report finds that China will be the fastest-growing market, with annual passenger traffic projected to rise by 5.7% through 2044. Demand is accelerating in lower-tier cities, outpacing growth in major hubs, and fleet flexibility will be key to unlocking regional connectivity.
China is expected to require 1,500 new up-to-150-seat jets by 2044, reflecting its expanding middle class and evolving tourism landscape.
As for Latin America and the Caribbean, this region will see annual passenger traffic growth of 4.7%, driven by new infrastructure and the need for better regional connectivity. Small narrowbodies are expected to play a crucial role in opening underserved markets and optimising operations at challenging airports. The region will require 770 new jets and 160 turboprops through 2044.
Embraer's report also noted that Africa offers significant untapped potential, with annual passenger traffic growth projected at 4.4%. The continent's emerging middle class and rising incomes are expected to drive demand, but economic, infrastructure, and regulatory barriers remain. Africa will need 380 new jets and 220 turboprops, with small aircraft essential for connecting low-density markets and supporting sustainable development.
Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are forecast to grow at 3.1% annually, with a focus on maximizing sustainable connectivity and airline profitability. Embraer sees small narrowbodies as vital for serving low-density markets and ensuring efficient network integration, particularly as environmental regulations tighten. The region will require 1,990 new jets and 260 turboprops.
As for the Middle East, Embraer said the growth is projected at 4.4% annually, with tourism and intra-regional connectivity as key drivers. Small narrowbodies will help airlines unlock new domestic and regional markets, supporting national diversification strategies. The region is expected to require 350 new jets and 20 turboprops.
North America will see slower growth (2.4% annually) but remains the largest market for jet deliveries (2,680 up-to-150-seat jets and 280 turboprops). Regional aviation is the backbone of the US network, with small narrowbodies complementing large aircraft to maximize frequencies and maintain capacity discipline.
The Embraer report noted that Asia-Pacific is poised to redefine global aviation, driven by rapid economic growth, demographic trends and the need for smarter, more flexible air networks.
As airlines across the world adapt to new realities – from shifting geopolitics to environmental priorities – the ability to connect people, places and economies will remain at the heart of the industry's future.
Embraer said that with the right fleet strategies and a focus on underserved markets, the aviation sector can unlock new opportunities for growth and resilience in every region.