Sweden's arctic railway prepares for a more militarized future
There had been another accident in the area, the second in less than three months. It would be almost two weeks before trains could resume their travel along Malmbanan, or the Iron Ore Line, between the world's biggest underground iron ore mine and the export port on the coast of Norway. Her first thoughts were of sabotage.
"Could an outsider be involved?' the LKAB logistics boss wondered. "It was an uncomfortable possibility, given the way the world looks today.'
That turned out to be a red herring — the accident had been caused by harsh winter weather. But Bjurholt had good reason to suspect otherwise. The war in Ukraine was then entering its third year, and with Finland a new NATO member and Sweden close to becoming one, relations between Russia and the Nordic countries were strained. Since then, the situation has only gotten more tense, and the 500-kilometer-long Malmbanan line remains a prime target.
A freight train travels along the Malmbanan line through Bjorkliden in northern Sweden on June 9. |
Bloomberg
For nearly 150 years, Malmbanan trains have hauled iron ore, the main component in steel, across the barren, mountainous landscape of Sweden's far north. The state-owned line supplied German steelmakers during the Second World War, and LKAB's iron ore now accounts for about 80% of the European Union's output, going into tanks, guns and other military equipment the bloc is racing to produce.
Should Finland's more than 1,300-km-long border with Russia ever become an active front, the track would also be one of the best ways for NATO to transport vehicles and supplies. Kiruna, the town that's home to the iron ore mine, is little more than 540 km away from the Russian military hub of Murmansk.
While war is not seen as imminent, it is a possibility that leaders are actively preparing for. Since Sweden became NATO's newest member in March 2024, the number of suspected hybrid attacks on the country's critical infrastructure has risen. Its banking services and a public broadcaster have been subjected to cyberattacks, water facilities have been mysteriously damaged and police are investigating incidents of suspected sabotage against about 30 cell phone towers in the east of the country.
"Sweden is not at war,' Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said at a security conference in January, referring to the situation. "But there is no peace, either.'
Linda Bjurholt, area manager logistics at LKAB |
Bloomberg
Speaking in The Hague last week, Sweden's Foreign Affairs Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard said that Russia has singled out the Arctic region as its "second-most important foreign policy priority' after the post-Soviet states. In recent years, she added, "we've also seen how both the number and extent of the Russian military activities in the Arctic have increased.'
While Sweden's Security Service declined to comment specifically on Malmbanan, it released a report in March that underscored the threats facing the country's critical infrastructure. LKAB also abstained from discussing the railway's security in any detail, simply calling it a "big priority.'
As NATO and Sweden ramp up military activity in the north, demands on the transit network will increase, said Magnus Stahl, Colonel and Commander of Sweden's Northern Military Region.
"Malmbanan is incredibly important for Sweden,' he said during an interview in the garrison town of Boden. But, he warned, "it's very easy to damage infrastructure like a railway or a bridge.'
LKAB's iron ore mining operations in Kiruna, Sweden's northernmost city, on June 9 |
Bloomberg
Connecting this infrastructure to other parts of the region presents another challenge. Because Finland was part of the Russian empire when its railways were built, its gauge is about 90 millimeters wider than Sweden's, meaning trains can't seamlessly travel between countries like in most parts of Europe.
A study recently estimated that replacing the tracks between the Swedish border and the towns of Oulu and Rovaniemi alone would cost about €1.5 billion ($1.8 billion). To address the issue, the Finnish government said last month that it may end up building new lines with narrower track gauges alongside existing ones, and in some places, interlacing the two.
In the meantime, Malmbanan is in dire need of upgrades. After decades of underinvestment, demand for space on the line is outstripping availability. LKAB runs about 14 return trips a day, and other companies also use the railway to ship goods and offer passenger services.
Sweden's Minister for Infrastructure and Housing, Andreas Carlson, described Malmbanan in an email interview as the most "congested train line in the country.' With only one track, any accident or unexpected problem could shut down the entire system — as happened in December 2023, February 2024 and again just a few weeks ago.
Albin Enbacke, one of LKAB's roughly 100 drivers, is used to delays. Some are caused by run-of-the-mill problems like track obstructions and gear failures, others by avalanches and traffic jams. He now shows up for shifts with yogurt or nuts, or anything he can cook on the hotplate in the driver's cabin. "You need to bring some emergency food. You never know if there will be a stop and you'll get stuck.'
A train rumbles down the Malmbanan near Boden on its way to the Lulea port. |
Bloomberg
Bolstering Malmbanan's capacity and long-term resilience is not only a Swedish priority. Bane Nor, the operator on the Norwegian side of the border, expects a 43% increase in traffic over the next 20 years and has already allocated 2.6 billion Norwegian kroner ($260 million) to upgrades.
Sweden's rail gauge is 90 millimeters narrower than those in neighboring Finland. |
Bloomberg
In Sweden, more than two dozen renovation and improvement projects are under way or slated to start in the next few years, according to the website of Sweden's Transport Administration, including ones to replace aging rails and install new signaling systems. Tracks will also be reinforced to accommodate heavier trains, Carlson said, and there are plans to install double tracks between Boden and Lulea.
While LKAB has been pushing for double tracks along the entire length of the line, an early estimate from the Transport Administration suggests that this could take as much as €11 billion and up to three decades to plan and complete.
As a project leader at the agency, Joran Gartner spends his days finding ways to implement fixes that will ease pressure on the system.
During a recent visit to a site near Boden, Gartner pointed at three tracks that ran parallel to each other for several hundred meters. In the past, that was enough room for iron-ore trains to pass each other safely. But as the length of trains have expanded over the years, that's no longer the case.
Once his latest upgrades are finished — including the construction of a roughly one km-long track where trains can meet oncoming traffic — additional capacity will open up. Still, he cautioned, the system will remain vulnerable to disturbances and delays.
"These measures,' he said, "are just about providing life support.'
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Japan Times
a day ago
- Japan Times
Sweden's arctic railway prepares for a more militarized future
Linda Bjurholt had just gotten Swedish mining giant LKAB's trains back up and running after a costly derailment north of the Arctic Circle when she got a call from her company's traffic control center. There had been another accident in the area, the second in less than three months. It would be almost two weeks before trains could resume their travel along Malmbanan, or the Iron Ore Line, between the world's biggest underground iron ore mine and the export port on the coast of Norway. Her first thoughts were of sabotage. "Could an outsider be involved?' the LKAB logistics boss wondered. "It was an uncomfortable possibility, given the way the world looks today.' That turned out to be a red herring — the accident had been caused by harsh winter weather. But Bjurholt had good reason to suspect otherwise. The war in Ukraine was then entering its third year, and with Finland a new NATO member and Sweden close to becoming one, relations between Russia and the Nordic countries were strained. Since then, the situation has only gotten more tense, and the 500-kilometer-long Malmbanan line remains a prime target. A freight train travels along the Malmbanan line through Bjorkliden in northern Sweden on June 9. | Bloomberg For nearly 150 years, Malmbanan trains have hauled iron ore, the main component in steel, across the barren, mountainous landscape of Sweden's far north. The state-owned line supplied German steelmakers during the Second World War, and LKAB's iron ore now accounts for about 80% of the European Union's output, going into tanks, guns and other military equipment the bloc is racing to produce. Should Finland's more than 1,300-km-long border with Russia ever become an active front, the track would also be one of the best ways for NATO to transport vehicles and supplies. Kiruna, the town that's home to the iron ore mine, is little more than 540 km away from the Russian military hub of Murmansk. While war is not seen as imminent, it is a possibility that leaders are actively preparing for. Since Sweden became NATO's newest member in March 2024, the number of suspected hybrid attacks on the country's critical infrastructure has risen. Its banking services and a public broadcaster have been subjected to cyberattacks, water facilities have been mysteriously damaged and police are investigating incidents of suspected sabotage against about 30 cell phone towers in the east of the country. "Sweden is not at war,' Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said at a security conference in January, referring to the situation. "But there is no peace, either.' Linda Bjurholt, area manager logistics at LKAB | Bloomberg Speaking in The Hague last week, Sweden's Foreign Affairs Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard said that Russia has singled out the Arctic region as its "second-most important foreign policy priority' after the post-Soviet states. In recent years, she added, "we've also seen how both the number and extent of the Russian military activities in the Arctic have increased.' While Sweden's Security Service declined to comment specifically on Malmbanan, it released a report in March that underscored the threats facing the country's critical infrastructure. LKAB also abstained from discussing the railway's security in any detail, simply calling it a "big priority.' As NATO and Sweden ramp up military activity in the north, demands on the transit network will increase, said Magnus Stahl, Colonel and Commander of Sweden's Northern Military Region. "Malmbanan is incredibly important for Sweden,' he said during an interview in the garrison town of Boden. But, he warned, "it's very easy to damage infrastructure like a railway or a bridge.' LKAB's iron ore mining operations in Kiruna, Sweden's northernmost city, on June 9 | Bloomberg Connecting this infrastructure to other parts of the region presents another challenge. Because Finland was part of the Russian empire when its railways were built, its gauge is about 90 millimeters wider than Sweden's, meaning trains can't seamlessly travel between countries like in most parts of Europe. A study recently estimated that replacing the tracks between the Swedish border and the towns of Oulu and Rovaniemi alone would cost about €1.5 billion ($1.8 billion). To address the issue, the Finnish government said last month that it may end up building new lines with narrower track gauges alongside existing ones, and in some places, interlacing the two. In the meantime, Malmbanan is in dire need of upgrades. After decades of underinvestment, demand for space on the line is outstripping availability. LKAB runs about 14 return trips a day, and other companies also use the railway to ship goods and offer passenger services. Sweden's Minister for Infrastructure and Housing, Andreas Carlson, described Malmbanan in an email interview as the most "congested train line in the country.' With only one track, any accident or unexpected problem could shut down the entire system — as happened in December 2023, February 2024 and again just a few weeks ago. Albin Enbacke, one of LKAB's roughly 100 drivers, is used to delays. Some are caused by run-of-the-mill problems like track obstructions and gear failures, others by avalanches and traffic jams. He now shows up for shifts with yogurt or nuts, or anything he can cook on the hotplate in the driver's cabin. "You need to bring some emergency food. You never know if there will be a stop and you'll get stuck.' A train rumbles down the Malmbanan near Boden on its way to the Lulea port. | Bloomberg Bolstering Malmbanan's capacity and long-term resilience is not only a Swedish priority. Bane Nor, the operator on the Norwegian side of the border, expects a 43% increase in traffic over the next 20 years and has already allocated 2.6 billion Norwegian kroner ($260 million) to upgrades. Sweden's rail gauge is 90 millimeters narrower than those in neighboring Finland. | Bloomberg In Sweden, more than two dozen renovation and improvement projects are under way or slated to start in the next few years, according to the website of Sweden's Transport Administration, including ones to replace aging rails and install new signaling systems. Tracks will also be reinforced to accommodate heavier trains, Carlson said, and there are plans to install double tracks between Boden and Lulea. While LKAB has been pushing for double tracks along the entire length of the line, an early estimate from the Transport Administration suggests that this could take as much as €11 billion and up to three decades to plan and complete. As a project leader at the agency, Joran Gartner spends his days finding ways to implement fixes that will ease pressure on the system. During a recent visit to a site near Boden, Gartner pointed at three tracks that ran parallel to each other for several hundred meters. In the past, that was enough room for iron-ore trains to pass each other safely. But as the length of trains have expanded over the years, that's no longer the case. Once his latest upgrades are finished — including the construction of a roughly one km-long track where trains can meet oncoming traffic — additional capacity will open up. Still, he cautioned, the system will remain vulnerable to disturbances and delays. "These measures,' he said, "are just about providing life support.'
Japan Times
2 days ago
- Japan Times
In the Trump era, how much should countries really be spending on defense?
What percentage of gross domestic product should a country be spending on its defense? That question has continued to be at the center of debates on defense, with NATO allies recently committing to increase the target from 2% to 5%. The White House has since stated that 5% should be the standard for all of America's allies. Voices around the globe are arguing the pros and cons of such a target. In truth, the 'percentage of GDP' approach is a political one, not a practical one. The actual debate is far more complex and includes alliance management issues that have existed for as long as there have been military alliances. The percentage of GDP standard stems from a core issue in alliance management: How do you ensure that everyone is contributing their fair share to the security relationship? Certainly, no country wants to do all the heavy lifting in fulfilling commitments, so there must be some quantifiable measure for contributions to ensure fairness. But the reality is that no two alliances are the same. This may seem obvious for alliances defined by different treaties such as the U.S. alliances with Japan and South Korea, but it also applies within multinational alliances like NATO. Poland and the Baltic states have vastly different circumstances with the Russia-Ukraine war raging next door than say, Luxembourg, which is nestled comfortably between the much larger and militarily robust nations of France and Germany. So, how does one measure contributions between countries like Luxembourg and Poland? Is it the number of military operations in which their soldiers participate? Is it the number of bases provided for allied use or the amount of money provided to alliance institutions and initiatives? These are questions with complicated answers and it is impossible to apply a universal rubric for every ally, so years ago, it became popular to use the percentage of GDP standard. In other words, a universal measure for alliance contributions would be how much a country is spending on its own defense proportional to its economy. This became a formal standard for NATO in 2014 during the Wales summit in which they declared that all NATO allies would aspire to 2% of GDP for defense spending. With the most recent summit in the Netherlands, the standard is now 5%. In principle, this seems like a fair approach. But as useful as it is as a political benchmark, this method has its flaws. First of all, what qualifies as 'defense spending' that would count on the stat sheet? Is this everything that touches the military in some way, including retirement pay, veterans administration and military recreation facilities? Is there a distinction between research and development for new capabilities and maintenance of older weapon systems? Does infrastructure construction count if it may support allied operations? Would it be fair if one country included certain items on the cost sheet that the other did not? With the new 5% standard, NATO allies are creating at least some distinction in this debate. In practice, the allies are to spend 3.5% on conventional defense spending, while 1.5% can be on defense-related expenditures. These are still broad categories that will raise some questions. For example, Italy, which only reports 1.49% of GDP spending on defense, has a long way to reach NATO's new 5% standard. Italian lawmakers have proposed solving the problem by reclassifying a new €13.5 billion ($15.9 billion) bridge between the mainland and Sicily as a defense-related expenditure because it could potentially be used for NATO operations. This is just one example of many that will surely emerge as the allies contemplate implementation of the new standard. The second issue is that the percentage of GDP approach assumes that all security alliances are predicated on the same types of tradeoffs. They are not and the utility of those tradeoffs differ based on geography and threats. Even the U.S. recognizes this, with its publication on multinational operations listing seven areas of partner-nation contributions. One is the provision of combat forces and the rest are noncombat in nature, including diplomatic support; financial support; basing, access and overflight support; logistics, lift and sustainment; stabilization and reconstruction support; and governance and ministerial support. Several of these noncombat contributions have no direct tie-ins with an ally's defense spending or even defense-related spending, but it still represents a contribution to the security relationship. So, as an observer trying to make sense of the current debate, it is important to dive deeper than simply looking at percentages. We need to understand the specific tradeoffs within each alliance and the utility that different partners bring. Where does Japan fit into this debate? In 1976, then-Prime Minister Takeo Miki institutionalized the percentage of GDP standard by declaring that he would cap defense spending at 1%. This ceiling remained in place for decades, but while Japan has since eclipsed the 1% figure, there is renewed criticism from some American policy circles. This is nothing new, as Japan has received criticism for free riding in its relationship with the United States long before the current administration. One of the core arguments is that Japan relied on America to deal with its tough security issues so that it could focus primarily on the meteoric economic rise the country enjoyed in the postwar decades. As the logic goes: Less money spent on defense meant more money for growing the economy. There are a couple of flaws in that argument. It ignores the fact that there were plenty of policy actors in the United States in the postwar years who were wary of a rearmed Japan, meaning the notion of an equal military partner in the Self-Defense Forces would have been antithetical to their preferences. Another flaw is that Japanese military contributions to the alliance was a core expectation in the security relationship. When the two countries signed their alliance treaties in 1951 and 1960, the central tradeoff was that the United States would provide for the security of Japan and, in return, Japan would provide basing and access for U.S. forces. This served both governments well. Naturally, the alliance evolved over time and with that evolution came to the realization that there needed to be newly defined roles, missions and capabilities between the two allies. Those were codified in the Japan-U.S. Guidelines on Defense Cooperation, the most recent version of which was published in April 2015. The guidelines clearly lay out the expectations that each ally has for the other, meaning that any substantive debate over defense spending really starts from there. In this case, the question is less about what percentage of GDP either ally is spending on its defense, but rather if they are resourced, trained and equipped to meet the expectations established in their negotiated guidelines. Of course, politics being politics, the percentage of GDP figure will continue to garner headlines and drive public debates. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has expressed his intent to focus those debates on meaningful issues related to readiness and capabilities. But with an ally urging Japan to do more for security and a domestic populace demanding the Ishiba administration do more for a lagging economy, success in the defense spending debate is far from guaranteed. Michael MacArthur Bosack is the special adviser for government relations at the Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies. He previously served in the Japanese government as a Mansfield fellow.
The Mainichi
2 days ago
- The Mainichi
Russia hammers Kyiv in largest missile and drone barrage since war in Ukraine began
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) -- Waves of drone and missile attacks targeted Kyiv overnight into Friday in the largest aerial attack since Russia's invasion of Ukraine began more than three years ago, injuring 23 people and inflicting severe damage across multiple districts of the capital in a seven-hour onslaught. Russia launched 550 drones and missiles across Ukraine during the night, the country's air force said. The majority were Shahed drones, but Russia also launched 11 missiles in the attack. "It was a harsh, sleepless night," Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. Russia is escalating its long-range attacks on Ukrainian cities. Less than a week ago Russia launched its previous largest aerial assault of the war. That strategy has coincided with a new push by Russia's bigger forces along parts of the roughly 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) front line, where Ukrainian troops are under severe pressure. Trump 'not happy' with Russia's attacks The attack on Kyiv began the same day a phone call took place between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Zelenskyy called the timing of the strikes a deliberate signal that Moscow has no intention of ending the war. Trump said he would call Zelenskyy on Friday. U.S-led international peace efforts have been fruitless so far. When asked if he made any progress with Putin on a deal to end the fighting in Ukraine, he said: "No, I didn't make any progress with him today at all." "I'm not happy about that. I'm not happy about that," Trump said of Russia's war in Ukraine. According to Yuri Ushakov, Putin's foreign affairs adviser, the Russian leader emphasized that Moscow will seek to achieve its goals in Ukraine and remove the "root causes" of the conflict. "Russia will not back down from these goals," Ushakov told reporters after the call. Putin has argued he sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022 to fend off a threat to Russia posed by Ukraine's push to join NATO and to protect Russian speakers in Ukraine, arguments rejected by Kyiv and its allies. He insisted any prospective peace deal must see Ukraine abandon its NATO bid and recognize Russia's territorial gains. Pentagon halts deliveries of air defense missiles The U.S. has paused some shipments of military aid to Ukraine, including crucial air defense missiles. Ukraine's main European backers are considering how they can help pick up the slack. Zelenskyy says plans are afoot to build up Ukraine's domestic arms industry, but scaling up will take time. Throughout the night, Associated Press journalists in Kyiv heard the constant buzzing of drones overhead and the sound of explosions and intense machine gun fire as Ukrainian forces tried to intercept the aerial assault. "Absolutely horrible and sleepless night in Kyiv," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha wrote on social media platform X. "One of the worst so far." Ukraine's Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko described "families running into metro stations, basements, underground parking garages, mass destruction in the heart of our capital." "What Kyiv endured last night, cannot be called anything but a deliberate act of terror," she wrote on X. Kyiv was the primary target of the countrywide attack. At least 14 people were hospitalized, according to Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko. Russia strikes 5 Ukrainian regions Ukrainian air defenses shot down 270 targets, including two cruise missiles. Another 208 targets were lost from radar and presumed jammed. Russia successfully hit eight locations with nine missiles and 63 drones. Debris from intercepted drones fell across at least 33 sites. In addition to the capital, the Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Kyiv regions also sustained damage, Zelenskyy said. Emergency services reported damage in at least five of the capital's 10 districts. In Solomianskyi district, a five-story residential building was partially destroyed and the roof of a seven-story building caught fire. Fires also broke out at a warehouse, a garage complex and an auto repair facility. In Sviatoshynskyi district, a strike hit a 14-story residential building, sparking a fire. Several vehicles also caught fire nearby. Blazes were also reported at non-residential facilities. In Shevchenkivskyi district, an eight-story building came under attack, with the first floor sustaining damage. Falling debris was recorded in Darnytskyi and Holosiivskyi districts. Ukraine's national railway operator, Ukrzaliznytsia, said drone strikes damaged rail infrastructure in Kyiv.
