ASX Copper Tier List: Part 2 – who's best positioned for the upswing?

News.com.au

6 days ago

A proposed 50% tariff on copper imports triggered the metal's biggest overnight surge in months earlier this year, with spot prices smashing through the critical $US5.50/lb barrier and setting pure-play copper companies up for potentially massive windfalls.
To grasp the market's reaction, it helps to consider copper's vital role in everyday life.
From the wiring behind every power outlet in our homes to the infrastructure of skyscrapers, copper is everywhere. It powers our computers, cars, and smartphones, making it a foundational material in modern technology and construction.
For retail investors looking for the best copper opportunities on the ASX, the most compelling lie with companies highly leveraged to the commodity with minimal diversification.
With strong exposure to copper prices, these businesses stand to benefit from any price increases.
But a lack of major discoveries, aging mines and declining ore grades, particularly over the past decade, is raising concerns about future supply as demand for EVs continues to rise.
According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, to meet demand for copper – which BHP reckons will accelerate 2.6% CAGR versus the 1.9% CAGR over the past 15 years – 61 new mines are needed by 2030.
Perhaps more troubling is that very few non-major companies control projects with the potential to deliver ~100,000tpa of copper.
We've done the hard yards for you here, compiling part two of our look at companies producing and exploring for copper internationally, with potential to make it big.
In this article we're focusing on miners, developers and explorers.
Large cap producers
The top miners in the world continue to look to copper for growth as the concurrent adoption of copper-intensive technologies like EVs, renewables and data centres intensifies over the next 25 years.
BHP (ASX:BHP)
Alongside its ownership of three of Australia's top four copper operations, the world's largest miner also co-owns Chile's Escondida mine – the world's top copper producer – through a joint venture with Rio Tinto and JECO Corporation.
Copper overtook coal in BHP's earnings mix in FY23 as the miner pivoted towards future-facing commodities needed for EVs, wind turbines and solar panels to support the energy transition.
In the second half of 2024, Esondida achieved its highest production levels in a decade, producing 644,000t of copper, marking a 22% increase year over year.
This year, the Big Australian lifted copper output across its operations by 8% to 2.017Mt, boosted by a strong performance at Econdida, where production rose 16% to a 17-year high of 1.305Mt.
BHP is spending US$2b toward concentrator optimisation as part of a broader US$10.8b investment plan over the next decade at the project, which contributes to about 2.5% of Chile's GDP.
BHP's Pampa Norte copper project is also in production, consisting of two mines (Spence and Cerro Colorado) in Chile's Atacama region.
The Spence mine recently achieved fully autonomous haulage operations and BHP is exploring options to extend Cerro Colorado's operational life.
Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO)
Like BHP, Rio Tinto is actively seeking to expand its copper production with a focus on both organic growth at existing operations and potential acquisitions.
At the end of last year, the miner announced plans to grow output by 40% to 2030, putting the red metal at the centre of its next phase of expansion.
Rio Tinto's copper output rose 15% year-on-year to 229,000t in April–June 2025, thanks largely to record production levels at the Oyu Tolgoi underground mine in Mongolia.
The company kept its 2025 copper production guidance unchanged at 780,000–850,000t but indicated in its latest quarterly report that output is likely to reach the top end of the target.
The Oyu Tolgol mine hit peak production of 87,000t of copper in concentrate in April – June, up 65% on the year as the company plans to ramp up production at the mine over the next few years, reaching an average of 500,000t per year of copper by 2028 – 2036.
Meanwhile, plans for Rio Tinto and BHP to develop one of the world's largest undeveloped copper mines got the go ahead after the US Supreme Court declined to hear an appeal challenging the Resolution copper project in Arizona.
Backed by more than $2 billion in investment, the project is home to over 18.1Mt of copper, potentially enough to satisfy 25% of the US's future demand for the metal.
Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR)
Sandfire owns two producing copper projects overseas, the MATSA mining hub in Spain and the Motheo copper mine in Botswana's prolific Kalahari copper belt.
The MATSA hub comprises three underground mines and a 4.7Mtpa central processing facility in the Iberian Pyrite Belt, producing copper, zinc and lead concentrates with gold and silver credits.
The Iberian Pyrite Belt is a rich volcanogenic massive sulphide province that has been actively mined for over 5000 years, dating back to the Phoenician and Roman eras.
Last year, the MATSA hub produced 109,000t of copper.
The company has poured more than US$500 million into Botswana since 2021, and with Motheo now operating at a 5.6Mtpa run rate – exceeding its original production targets—it's eyeing further growth in the region.
South32 (ASX:S32)
South 32 acquired a 45% stake in the large scale Sierra Gorda copper-molybdenum mine in Chile in 2022.
The mine began production in 2014 and delivered 150,000t of copper in 2023, along with 3,000t molybdenum.
In 2024, the mine produced 86,200t.
A fourth grinding line was added in 2024 to lift capacity by 20%, extending its mine life beyond 16 years.
The miner also owns a resource development opportunity with its Ambler JV in Alaska, which contain a combined estimated 8bn lb of copper, focused exploration in South Africa and early stage growth in North America.
New World Resources (ASX:NWC)
New World Resources holds the Antler Project in Arizona, one of the most prospective copper regions in the US.
While it may not match the scale of the nearby Resolution mine – jointly owned by Rio Tinto and BHP with potential output of 400,000t per annum – Antler's development timeline appears significantly more near-term and realistic.
With most of its infrastructure on public land and key approvals already well progressed, the previously operating underground mine could be approved by early next year and in production as soon as 2027, within the term of pro-mining US President Donald Trump.
At 30,000tpa copper equivalent (including 16,000tpa of the red metal), the project is ready to benefit as copper surpluses shift to deficits amid surging demand for the metal from clean energy technologies.
The company has become the centre of a heated contest between rival suitors Central Asia Metals and Kinterra Capital, fielding 6.5c and 6.6c bids respectively.
Xanadu Mines (ASX:XAM)
Xanadu owns a portfolio of copper projects in the emerging mining jurisdiction of Mongolia, on the doorsteps of the world's number one copper consumer – China.
Its flagship project is the giant Kharmagtai asset, backed by 730Mt in high-grade reserves, packing in 1.6Mt of copper and 4m ounces of gold at grades of 0.21% and 0.17g/t respectively.
The long-awaited feasibility study for Kharmagtai, released late last year, pegged the project's NPV at US$930m (A$1.45b) using an 8% discount rate, with a US$890m (A$1.4B=b) capital cost and projected annual EBITDA of US$293m (A$458m).
The project is expected to produce up to 80,000 tonnes of copper and 170,000 ounces of gold annually, with a low operating cost of US$0.70 per pound of copper over an impressive mine life of 29 years.
Xanadu is developing the project in a joint venture with major Chinese multinational mining company Zijin Mining Group.
With the project situated ~120km northwest of Rio's Oyu Tolgoi Mine (currently moving towards 500,000tpa copper production) on a granted mining licence with 30-year tenure and an option to extend another 40 years, it's easy to see why Singapore mining entity Bastion Mining has made an off-market $160m takeover bid for Xanadu.
Bastion stepped in after talks between Xanadu and Zijin, underpinned by an exclusivity agreement aimed at finalising a control deal, ultimately fell through.
After Zijin signalled its acceptance, Xanadu's independent takeover committee promptly reiterated its recommendation that shareholders accept Bastion's offer in the absence of a superior proposal.
Alara Resources' active copper projects are primarily located in Oman, including the Al Wash-hi Majaza asset, the Mullaq and Al Ajal exploration licences under the Al Hadeetha JV and Block 7 inder the Daris JV.
Al Wash-hi Majaza achieved first concentrate production in March 2024 with the first shipment of copper concentrate dispatched a month later, after some initial delays due to a manufacturing defect.
The project, situated on the Semail Phiolite belt in northern Oman, comprises a 1Mtpa copper concentrate plant, a key part of Alara's strategy to become a mid-tier minerals producer.
The asset contains a defined indicated resource of 6.84Mt grading 0l90% copper and 0.17g/t gold, along with an inferred resource of 7.27Mt at 0.71% copper and 0.20g/t gold.
Capstone Copper Corp (ASX:CSC)
Capstone Copper owns multiple operating mines and projects, including the Mantoverde mine in Chile's Atacama region, which is currently ramping up production.
The mine – 70% owned by Capstone and 30% by Mitsubishi Materials Corporation – recently expanded into processing sulphide ores after receiving authorisation from the Atacama Regional Environmental Assessment Commission.
With this approval, the Mantoverde plant is set to increase its processing capacity from 32,000 to 45,000t of ore per day, extending the operating life of the deposit from 19 to 25 years.
The company's Santo Domingo asset is less than 30km away, is fully permitted and operationally complements the Mantoverde complex.
Meanwhile, Capstone's Pinto Valley mine in Arizona is an open-pit mine with a 60,000tpd sulphide milling capacity that is fully permitted until 2039.
The mine has been in operation since 1975, and produces both copper concentrate and copper cathode, as well as molybdenum.
It has produced over 4 billion pounds of copper, including 0.5 billion pounds of copper cathode.
A district growth study is underway to potentially extend the mine life to 2050.
Explorers
Smaller, high-grade explorers are hoping to enter production quicker, leveraging the benefits of higher prices before the hypothetical new wave of supply from the majors comes online.
Hot Chili owns the Costa Fuego copper-gold project in Chile, which includes both the Cortadera and Productora assets, as well as the newly defined La Verde copper-gold discovery.
Costa Fuego sits within the coastal range of Chile's Atacama region and contains probable reserves of 502Mt at 0.37% copper, 0.1g/t gold, 0.49g/t silver and 97ppm molybdenum.
The project is one of the largest-scale, lowest-elevation copper resources in the world not already controlled by a major miner.
HCH's subsidiary, Huasco Water, is now the only company with permitted access to supply seawater in the Huasco Valley region following a 10-year regulatory approval process.
Development study activities to optimise the recent Costa Fuego PFS are underway, building on the recently released PFS, which highlighted impressive post-tax numbers for the asset including an NPV of US$1.2b and IRR of 19%.
All-in sustaining costs totalled US$1.85/lb from the production of 1.5Mt of copper and 780,000oz of gold over a 20-year mine life.
Costs are low compared to its peers due to Costa Fuego's low elevation and proximity to the coast.
Firetails owns the Skyline copper project in Newfoundland, Canada as well as the Picha asset in Peru, where BHP is helping in the search for a discovery commensurate with its investment hurdles via the BHP Xplor incubator project.
Skyline produced ~100,000t at between 3-12% copper, 7% zinc and 1-3oz/t silver at the turn of the 20th century but has gone little explored since it was held by Noranda in the 1990s.
The explorer raised $3m in February to fund a high-impact exploration program at Skyline, which recently defined an 800m strike trend of copper volcanogenic massive sulphide-style mineralisation at Earl's target.
Meanwhile at Picha, the BHP Xplor program will provide approximately US$500,000 in non-dilutive funding and technical support to accelerate the company's copper exploration plans.
The team is set to meet again this month for another bootcamp, with the new Anta Qillqa target becoming a focus of ground activities.
White Cliff Minerals (ASX:WCN)
After a string of positive developments, including a strongly supported 14.4m capital raise and standout RC maiden drilling results from the Rae copper project in Canada – which delivered 105m at 2.25% copper – a diamond drilling campaign is now underway.
The program is targeting the large Hulk sub basin that extends deep into the sedimentary basin that has never been drill tested. White Cliff believes the basin has all first order controls required for a sedimentary copper deposit.
The company has secured a material footprint of prospective high-grade copper ground at its Rae project in Nunavut (1,288km2) and Great Bear Lake asset (2,900km2) in the Northwest Territories.
White Cliff is up already 140% this year following a very successful maiden RC drilling program, which returned a whopping 175m at 2.5% copper from 7.6m, ranking among the most significant copper intersections globally within the past 50 years.
Given current supply challenges, the company believes it is well placed to advance development considering its near surface mineralisation and proximity to an open water port just 80km away.
Challenger Gold (ASX:CEL)
Challenger Gold owns two significant discoveries of both grade and scale in South America but its copper focus lies with the El Guayabo and Colorado projects, which boasts a 91.Moz gold equivalent resource.
The Ecuador-based assets cover 36.1km2 and adjoin the 20.5Moz Cangrejos gold project owned by TSX-listed Lumina Gold which recently secured a $300M financing deal with Wheaton Precious Metals.
Cangrejos, El Guayabo, and Colorado V have the same geology, surface footprint and mineralisation style, and are interpreted as being part of the same system.
The Colorado V concession is about 750m deeper in the system and is a high-level porphyry intrusive and intrusive-related breccia complex with mineralisation controlled by regional scale and local scale fault-fracture zones, breccia zones and lithology contacts.
Soil geochemistry has generated 15 regionally significant gold-copper soil anomalies across the Colorado V and El Guayabo concessions, with completed exploration drilling on 13 of the soil anomalies, and all holes intersecting mineralisation.
With the upgraded MRE concluding Challenger's exploration program in Ecuador, the company is now positioned to advance the monetisation process through several strategic options – a TSX listing to spin the projects off into a standalone entity, strategic sale or farm-in partnership.
Belararox (ASX:BRX)
Belararox owns a global portfolio of copper projects with the Toro-Malambo-Tambo (TMT) in Argentina's central Andes and the Kalahari copper project in Botswana which the company acquired in September last year.
TMT is positioned between the El Indo and Marcunga Metallogenic Belts, a region known for its high potential for copper-gold deposits near the Chilean border, and sits to the south of the Filo del Sol asset, a 50/50 joint venture between BHP and Lundin Mining.
The company recently wrapped up Phase 1 drilling at TMT, which tested two of several high priority target areas where surface sampling returned assays up to 1.41% copper and 1.28ppm gold.
Meanwhile, work is underway to begin drilling at Kalahari with four priority targets ready for drilling in August.
The sediment-hosted copper deposits of the Kalahari have become prime mining and exploration ground in recent years, with the discovery of the massive Khoemacau mine, owned by MMG, and Motheo, owned by Sandfire Resources.
BRX's targets lie along strike of prospects in Cobre's Kitlanya West and its wholly owned Ngami project, with one of the highest priority drill targets held by BRX, Target 3, along strike of a Cobre intercept totalling 209.05m at 0.85% copper and 20g/t silver. The remaining targets are along strike of prospects BHP is reviewing to drill.
Norfolk Metals (ASX:NFL)
Norfolk is targeting a shallow copper oxide resource with potential for a low-cost, high-margin heap leach operation at the Carmen copper project in Chile's Atacama region.
The asset contains an historical NI 43-101 copper oxide resource of 5.6Mt at 0.6% copper and multiple drill ready targets across more than 7.5km of untested strike.
Having met all conditions of the earn-in agreement with the vendors (Transendentia) in June, the coming is now transitioning to Stage 1, aiming to earn a 70% stake in the company by spending $3m on Carmen over three years.
Permitting is underway and a 5100m drilling program is in the works for Q3, comprising a combination of RC and diamond drilling to extend the mineralisation defined in the foreign resource.
While Carmen is currently shaping up as a copper oxide project with highly soluble mineralisation near surface, historical drilling has also flagged strong sulphide potential that Norfolk plans to follow up.