
Consensus on Discos' sell-off: Working group formed for FA-stakeholder coordination
In the first phase, the government is fast-tracking efforts to privatise three Discos— Islamabad Electric Supply Company (IESCO), Gujranwala Electric Power Company (GEPCO), and Faisalabad Electric Supply Company (FESCO) — with the goal of completing the process by the end of calendar year 2025. Financial Advisors, Alvarez & Marsal Middle East, has given the sectoral due diligence report.
The Working Group comprised of Abdul Basit Abbasi, Consultant, Privatisation Commission – (Convener), Sajid Akram, Director General, NEPRA, Umer Haroon, Independent System and Market Operator (ISMO), Umair, Senior Manager, CPPA-G, Salman Rehman, Director, NEPRA, Abdul Moiz Khawaja, Additional Joint Director SECP, Consultant, Power Division, nominee, Power Planning and Monitoring Company, nominee, CPPA-G, nominee, NEPRA DISCO's team and nominees, Financial Advisor.
Discos' sell off: 'Turkish model' under consideration
The Working Group will hold its first meeting on July 26, 2025 in the Ministry of Privatisation.
According to the Terms of Reference (ToRs), Working Group in furtherance of section 5(f), 5(g), and 5(t) of the Privatisation Commission Ordinance, 2000, the Chairman of the Privatisation Commission, is pleased to constitute a Working Group (WG) to address and resolve key issues identified in the Financial Advisor's Sector Due Diligence (DD) report concerning government-owned Power Distribution Companies whereby the regulatory framework in which privatization will proceed will be studied to form the basis of policy, regulatory and/or administrative decisions required to be taken by the Federal Government before privatization.
The Working Group will coordinate with relevant stakeholders and the Financial Advisor to achieve consensus and provide recommendations on the following matters:(i) Bifurcation of Retail and Wire Business - recommendations with respect to bifurcation of retail and wire business and ancillary regulatory matters, such as licensing, dispatch and settlement processes, optimum tariff and subsidy regimes etc; (b) examination of legal and technical issues concerning housing societies and industrial zones, and their corresponding impact on the valuation and operations of DISCOs; (c) NEPRA's deliberation to unbundle Distribution and Supply businesses; and (d) any other relevant and related matter.
Uniform Tariff and Industrial Cross-Subsidy Framework: Evaluation of the impact of the uniform tariff and existing cross-subsidies on DISCO valuation and recommendations for way forward.
Review of the Multi-Year Tariff (MYT) Framework will include (a) assessment of whether the current MYT and associated indexation mechanisms require revision, based on Financial Adviser's feedback; and (b) MYT revision window at the time of the transaction.
Supplier of Last Resort (SoLR) Licencing: (a) analysis of the merits and demerits of issuing competitive supplier licenses to the SOLR from the perspective of potential investors; and (b) CTBCM status and future evolvement plans, possible future business combinations and changes to DISCOs business perimeter over time (Distribution/SOLR/CS).
Review of transition from current wholesale market to retail market trading: total quantum of power to be allocated to the wholesale market over the next five years and a clear roadmap for transition, review the details w.r.t. annual allocation and mechanism of award, including criteria, bidding processes (if any), and regulatory approvals. Mechanism to ensure investment and efficiency improvement post privatisation: (a) determine commitments to be required from prospective investors - particularly investment in infrastructure and efficiency enhancement; to align with and support the Government's privatization objectives and proposed transition in power market structures ; and (b) propose a mechanism to ensure that post-privatization, the required investments, efficiency gains, and service delivery improvements are effectively achieved. This should include considerations for enforceability, regulatory oversight, investor confidence, and balanced risk allocation.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
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Discos's miraculous second half recovery
The Ministry of Energy (Power Division) has taken to social media and press briefings with a celebratory tone, touting a dramatic decline in inefficiency losses by discos during FY25 — from Rs591 billion in the previous year to Rs400 billion. A reduction of Rs191 billion is no small feat. But let's not lose sight of the fact that a Rs400 billion loss is still nothing short of catastrophic. It may be a better year, but it's far from a good one. What truly deserves a double take is what transpired in the second half of FY25. According to the Power Minister, recoveries surged to 96.06 percent for the full year — up from a modest 92.02 percent at the end of December 2024. That's a lot of ground covered in just six months. Some might even call it… magical. To put things into perspective: at the halfway mark of the fiscal year, discos had billed Rs3.12 trillion and collected Rs2.87 trillion — a shortfall of Rs249 billion. And then, in the remaining six months, they somehow managed to collect Rs117 billion more than what they billed. In other words, the second half of FY25 witnessed over 100 percent recovery. Approximately 3 billion units' worth of 'extra' collection materialized. Remarkable, no? Of course, consumption patterns, seasonal variations, and tariff structures differ across fiscal halves — that much is fair. But historically, it is the second half that has contributed the lion's share of inefficiency losses — about 60 percent in each of the past two years. That this trend reversed so dramatically in FY25, and with lower effective tariffs in Q4 no less, is a statistical curiosity. The Minister also claimed the recovery was the highest in history. Not quite. FY21 still holds the title at 97 percent. So while the recovery this year may be impressive, it's not unprecedented. Unless, of course, we're using a new definition of "record-breaking." Now, if the recovery side of DISCO inefficiencies is truly turning a corner — that would be welcome news. But for now, let's just say we await Nepra's State of Industry Report for a little more. Whenever it arrives. The second half of the inefficiency equation — Transmission & Distribution (T&D) losses — tells a different story. Here, performance has remained stubbornly poor. The T&D loss rate is still hovering close to 18 percent — miles away from Nepra's target of 11.4 percent. In financial terms, the 'improvement' has been a mere Rs10 billion. Hardly worth framing. Worse still, the gap between allowed and actual T&D losses is now the widest in recent memory. Over the last seven years, losses have moved within a tight band — and not in a good way. There has been little meaningful progress despite ambitious targets and consistent tariff adjustments. And let's not forget — these calculations only account for losses above the allowed threshold. The rest are already priced into consumer tariffs. So, every extra percentage point of inefficiency is a direct transfer from taxpayers and bill-payers to system leakage. In sum: one half of the disco loss problem appears to have undergone a miraculous transformation — or so we're told. The other half continues to underwhelm. Until both parts of the puzzle are fixed — with transparency and structural reform rather than spin — the sector's chronic inefficiencies will remain business as usual.


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Consensus on Discos' sell-off: Working group formed for FA-stakeholder coordination
ISLAMABAD: The government has constituted a working group intended to coordinate with relevant stakeholders and the Financial Advisors to achieve consensus on the privatisation process of power Distribution Companies (Discos), well informed sources told Business Recorder. In the first phase, the government is fast-tracking efforts to privatise three Discos— Islamabad Electric Supply Company (IESCO), Gujranwala Electric Power Company (GEPCO), and Faisalabad Electric Supply Company (FESCO) — with the goal of completing the process by the end of calendar year 2025. Financial Advisors, Alvarez & Marsal Middle East, has given the sectoral due diligence report. The Working Group comprised of Abdul Basit Abbasi, Consultant, Privatisation Commission – (Convener), Sajid Akram, Director General, NEPRA, Umer Haroon, Independent System and Market Operator (ISMO), Umair, Senior Manager, CPPA-G, Salman Rehman, Director, NEPRA, Abdul Moiz Khawaja, Additional Joint Director SECP, Consultant, Power Division, nominee, Power Planning and Monitoring Company, nominee, CPPA-G, nominee, NEPRA DISCO's team and nominees, Financial Advisor. Discos' sell off: 'Turkish model' under consideration The Working Group will hold its first meeting on July 26, 2025 in the Ministry of Privatisation. According to the Terms of Reference (ToRs), Working Group in furtherance of section 5(f), 5(g), and 5(t) of the Privatisation Commission Ordinance, 2000, the Chairman of the Privatisation Commission, is pleased to constitute a Working Group (WG) to address and resolve key issues identified in the Financial Advisor's Sector Due Diligence (DD) report concerning government-owned Power Distribution Companies whereby the regulatory framework in which privatization will proceed will be studied to form the basis of policy, regulatory and/or administrative decisions required to be taken by the Federal Government before privatization. The Working Group will coordinate with relevant stakeholders and the Financial Advisor to achieve consensus and provide recommendations on the following matters:(i) Bifurcation of Retail and Wire Business - recommendations with respect to bifurcation of retail and wire business and ancillary regulatory matters, such as licensing, dispatch and settlement processes, optimum tariff and subsidy regimes etc; (b) examination of legal and technical issues concerning housing societies and industrial zones, and their corresponding impact on the valuation and operations of DISCOs; (c) NEPRA's deliberation to unbundle Distribution and Supply businesses; and (d) any other relevant and related matter. Uniform Tariff and Industrial Cross-Subsidy Framework: Evaluation of the impact of the uniform tariff and existing cross-subsidies on DISCO valuation and recommendations for way forward. Review of the Multi-Year Tariff (MYT) Framework will include (a) assessment of whether the current MYT and associated indexation mechanisms require revision, based on Financial Adviser's feedback; and (b) MYT revision window at the time of the transaction. Supplier of Last Resort (SoLR) Licencing: (a) analysis of the merits and demerits of issuing competitive supplier licenses to the SOLR from the perspective of potential investors; and (b) CTBCM status and future evolvement plans, possible future business combinations and changes to DISCOs business perimeter over time (Distribution/SOLR/CS). Review of transition from current wholesale market to retail market trading: total quantum of power to be allocated to the wholesale market over the next five years and a clear roadmap for transition, review the details w.r.t. annual allocation and mechanism of award, including criteria, bidding processes (if any), and regulatory approvals. Mechanism to ensure investment and efficiency improvement post privatisation: (a) determine commitments to be required from prospective investors - particularly investment in infrastructure and efficiency enhancement; to align with and support the Government's privatization objectives and proposed transition in power market structures ; and (b) propose a mechanism to ensure that post-privatization, the required investments, efficiency gains, and service delivery improvements are effectively achieved. This should include considerations for enforceability, regulatory oversight, investor confidence, and balanced risk allocation. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025


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