Winners and losers in the Israel-Iran-US conflict

Hindustan Times

6 hours ago

The destructive 12-day aerial duel between Iran and Israel may have paused, but the region is far from being peaceful. Normalcy is elusive, and the calm is tenuous. Israel will go for general elections next year and a new wave of muscular nationalism can divert people's attention from the exhausting campaign in Gaza (AP)
The reason for such a cautious, albeit pessimistic outlook is the statements carelessly dished out by two of the three players of the West Asian roulette — US President Donald Trump and Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. On Friday, Trump said that if Iran continues its uranium enrichment programme, then America will bomb again. A day before, Khamenei vowed in front of his people that if America attacks Iran again, it should be prepared to face severe punishment. Iran is now bent on pursuing its nuclear armament programme.
Before the attack, Tel Aviv claimed Iran would soon make a nuclear bomb, and it would become a permanent threat to Israel's existence. Another reason given was that the Khamenei regime is not only unpopular, but is full of terrorists filled with religious hatred under the garb of just rule.
America also jumped into the conflict when there was no moral or strategic rationale for it to intervene. Experts are now asking what the 12-day war achieved. Unconfirmed reports suggest that Iran still has 400 kilograms of enriched uranium, which can be converted into nuclear weapons in a few weeks. As for Khamenei, he's firmly in the saddle and has chosen his successor.
A barrage of claims of victory and defeat have been unleashed from both sides. However, nobody knows the real extent to which each country has suffered or gained. Was Israel, the aggressor in this case, able to achieve its stated aims? Could Iran extract revenge in its counter-attacks? Why did America enter this conflict when it didn't even have a modicum of excuse?
Iran's nuclear programme was tightly controlled under the terms and conditions of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). To strengthen it further, it was in talks with the US. The next round of talks was proposed just two days after the day of the attack. Israel attacked, claiming that it had already taken the US into confidence. Is this the reason why the US intervened to bring this war to a swift and decisive end? Why did it use stealth bombers like the B-2 and huge GBU-57 bombs?
The harsh truth is that this war had no moral basis.
If you have any doubts, look at the facts. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has repeatedly said that Iran has not yet acquired the capability to make a nuclear bomb. However, that did not deter Israel and America from acting against Iran. It means something else is at play. Could it be that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is becoming increasingly unpopular at home due to the endless disaster in Gaza, orchestrated the conflict for a fresh lease of life in office? Israel will go for general elections next year and a new wave of muscular nationalism can divert people's attention from the exhausting campaign in Gaza. It seems Netanyahu has succeeded in his aim for the time being.
Part of the blame lies with Iran, too. After the Islamic Revolution, it installed a clock at Tehran's main square displaying a countdown to the end of Israel. The time was ticking every moment. Who would tolerate such senseless hatred? However, the conflict has once again laid bare America's deceit. In the 1980s, Iran and Iraq were locked in a long, bloody border conflict that lasted for eight years. At that time, America and its allies, the western countries, sided with Iraq and armed it to the teeth. Vaults of destructive weapons were opened for Saddam Hussein till he delivered on bleeding Iran. Later, what America did to Iraq during the two Gulf wars is well known.
Before attacking Iraq for the second time, the US claimed that Baghdad had weapons of mass destruction. After the removal of Saddam Hussein, international inspectors and the media found it to be a grand lie; neither did Iraq possess such weapons nor was it trying to make them.
The same disinformation playbook is playing out in the case of Iran today. Will this stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons? Certainly not. Tehran has voted to quit NPT and has publicly vowed to continue its nuclear programme.
If military operations against Iran resume, the chances are that other Gulf countries would be sucked into it. The bombs that Iran dropped on American bases in Qatar and Iraq on Monday night were not just an attack on America but also on the sovereignty of those countries. Qatar even vowed revenge. The US has eight military bases in this region, and all of them are within the range of Iranian missiles.
Another important aspect is the attitude of China and Russia. While openly protesting in sharp language, both were secretly working towards a ceasefire. A day before Trump announced a ceasefire, Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi was in Moscow. He had a long chat with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, and met President Vladimir Putin. It would be better if China, Russia, and the US keep the situation under control. But fresh statements by Khamenei and Trump are making global leaders and the population apprehensive.
It looks certain that after Gaza and Ukraine, Iran will be a simmering issue for some time to come.
Shashi Shekhar is editor-in-chief, Hindustan. The views expressed are personal.