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US should negotiate a successor to JCPOA with Iran. Now is the time
US should negotiate a successor to JCPOA with Iran. Now is the time

Indian Express

time9 hours ago

  • Politics
  • Indian Express

US should negotiate a successor to JCPOA with Iran. Now is the time

The American strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan have brought to the fore three major issues: The success of the strikes, the future of Iran's highly enriched uranium (HEU), and the nature of US-Israel-Iran dealings going forward. It is too early to know the extent of the damage inflicted on the Iranian facilities. Of greatest interest is Fordow. Twelve GBU-57 bombs were used against the main ventilation shafts in an attempt to destroy the centrifuges and control centre, which are 80 metres underground. The GBU-57s are effective to a depth of 60 metres. It is unlikely, therefore, that the bombs penetrated through to the centrifuge hall and control room. The question, though, is: Did the hits severely damage the main underground facilities through the concussive effects of the bombs? If the main ventilation shafts collapsed, what happened to the personnel within the facility? If power supplies were interrupted, were the centrifuges damaged and is anything operating? Is the Iranian admission of severe damage a ruse? If Fordow has effectively been sealed and control over the centrifuges is lost, a direct hit on the centrifuge hall may not matter. The centrifuges will, over time, simply become inoperable. In this sense, the US President may be at least partly right: Fordow may have been obliterated functionally. The second question is: What has become of the HEU, which by all accounts is enriched to 60 per cent (and can be quickly enriched further to make a bomb)? Reports suggest there were about 160 kg of it at Fordow and perhaps 400 kg in total. The stockpiles were apparently moved before the strikes (though the Trump administration now contests this). If the stockpiles were removed, they would be dispersed to several sites to increase survivability. Nonetheless, given Israeli and US intelligence capabilities, the location of the HEU may soon be known. If Israel can find and kill top Iranian nuclear scientists and generals, it should eventually be able to find the HEU. Once the HEU is located, what can the US and Israel do? They could choose to do nothing, on the calculation that Iran will have difficulty in enriching the HEU for the bomb. Most analysts, however, conclude that Iran can sufficiently enrich the HEU, at a secret facility (assuming one exists), within months. So, doing nothing is probably not an option. Once the locations of the HEU are known, the US and Iran could resume their attack. The problem is that any direct strikes on the HEU would be tantamount to unleashing 'dirty bombs', in which radioactive materials are vented without a nuclear chain reaction. The global outcry would be significant were this to occur, and both the US and Israel may be wary of the blowback. Plus, Israel must worry that its own nuclear reactors could be targeted someday to produce a similar result. It may not, therefore, want to legitimate such an action. If a direct attack on the HEU is dangerous, Washington and Tel Aviv must instead gain control of the stockpile. Tehran would have to be persuaded to reveal the locations of the HEU, and full-scope safeguarding would follow. This, in turn, means that the IAEA inspectors must have access to Iranian nuclear facilities, as was envisaged by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement between the US and Iran during President Barack Obama's time. In addition, the various 24/7 surveillance mechanisms under the accord would have to be installed and operated. For a new deal to be struck on Iran's nuclear activities, the United States will need to negotiate a successor to the JCPOA. In his comments on the strikes on Iran, US President Donald Trump drew a parallel to the Hiroshima and Nagasaki attacks during World War II, seeming to suggest that Iran is similarly prostrate. In fact, the parallel is far from accurate. Iran is not an occupied country. Both sides face limits. The US wants to avoid another 'forever war', not least due to domestic opposition. In addition, its supplies of defensive missiles and other war materials are under stress from provisioning Ukraine and Israel. Israel's famous air defences are strained, perhaps to breaking point, and it will be increasingly vulnerable to retaliatory missile attacks. Iran's options, too, are limited. Tehran must worry that both Israel and the US will resume attacks, and not just on nuclear facilities, and that internal dissent will boil over. The conditions are ripe, therefore, for a new nuclear deal. That said, the ceasefire must hold, and Iran must have an authority figure that can deliver a deal. Neither is certain. In addition, the US may have to sweeten the deal economically by lifting sanctions. This will depend on Trump overcoming domestic and Israeli opposition. In short, there is a road ahead, but it is a rocky one. The writer is Wilmar Professor of Asian Studies and vice dean, Research and Development, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore

Iranian construction crews working at Fordow nuclear site after US strikes, satellite images show
Iranian construction crews working at Fordow nuclear site after US strikes, satellite images show

New York Post

time10 hours ago

  • Politics
  • New York Post

Iranian construction crews working at Fordow nuclear site after US strikes, satellite images show

Iranian construction crews are busy at work on the surface of the uranium enrichment facility in Fordow five days after the US nailed the underground fortress with 30,000 pound bunker buster bombs, new satellite images showed. Crews operated excavators, bulldozers, and other construction vehicles near the craters and punctures in the ground above the nuclear facility caused by the GBU-57 bunker buster bombs dropped by American B-2s last weekend, according to images captured by Maxar Technologies on Friday. 4 Satellite images released Friday show a flurry of activity on the surface above Fordow's uranium enrichment facility where workers are beginning to build a new road. Satellite image ©2025 Maxar Technologies/AFP via Getty Images Advertisement Other images showed apparent construction crews building access roads to the facility and rebuilding the damaged dirt road that led to the bunker laboratory that was targeted by the US as part of Israel's conflict with the Islamic Republic. Satellite images from before the attack showed similar construction activity on the surface of Fordow in the 24-hour period prior to the bunker-busters piercing the desert surface. Those vehicles appeared to be moving unidentified contents out of the facility to a location roughly half-a-mile away. Advertisement 4 Heavy machinery is being used at the site where several 30,000 pound bombs were dropped last Saturday. Satellite image ©2025 Maxar Technologies/AFP via Getty Images Officials have stated that there has been no nuclear fallout or contamination as a result of the strikes. Fordow's centrifuges are currently 'no longer operational' according to the UN's nuclear watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency. 'It has suffered enormous damage,' IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi told Radio France Internationale on Thursday. Advertisement 'There is very, very, very considerable damage,' Grossi said. The extent of the destruction — and the amount of time the Iranian regime's program has been set back — have yet to be officially determined. 4 The United States started designing the GBU-57 bunker busters 15 years ago just to reach Iran's Fordow enrichment facility. Satellite image ©2025 Maxar Technologies/AFP via Getty Images President Trump has said the facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan have all been 'obliterated' and set back years — dismissing a leaked preliminary report from the Defense Intelligence Agency that suggested there was 'low confidence' the Iranian nuclear program had been set back by the massive strike. Advertisement Following that leak, CIA Director John Radcliffe and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard both backed up Trump and stated the strikes 'severely damaged' Iran's facilities. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth further pushed back against CNN and the New York Times for 'breathlessly' reporting the leaked preliminary 'low-confidence' assessment of the consequential strike. 4 Images released by the Pentagon showed the cavernous entry point of a bunker buster bomb on the surface of Fordow. Department of Defense Trump fumed about the leaks on social media, writing, 'The Fake News should fire everyone involved in this Witch Hunt, and apologize to our great warriors, and everyone else!' The Department of Justice is now seeking the origin of the leak and has promised to come down on the leaker with the full force of the law.

Pentagon chief backs Trump on success of Iran strikes
Pentagon chief backs Trump on success of Iran strikes

Bangkok Post

time19 hours ago

  • Politics
  • Bangkok Post

Pentagon chief backs Trump on success of Iran strikes

WASHINGTON - US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth insisted Thursday that American strikes on Iranian nuclear sites were a success, backing President Donald Trump and berating the media for covering an intelligence report that questioned the results of the operation. American B-2 bombers hit two Iranian nuclear sites with massive GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs last weekend, while a guided missile submarine struck a third site with Tomahawk cruise missiles. "President Trump created the conditions to end the war, decimating -- choose your word -- obliterating, destroying Iran's nuclear capabilities," Hegseth told journalists at the Pentagon, referring to a 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran. Trump has called the strikes a "spectacular military success" and repeatedly said they "obliterated" the nuclear sites. On Thursday, he insisted that Iran did not manage to move nuclear materials -- including enriched uranium -- ahead of the US military action. "Nothing was taken out of facility. Would take too long, too dangerous, and very heavy and hard to move!" Trump said in a post on his Truth Social platform. However, US media revealed a preliminary American intelligence assessment earlier this week that said the strikes only set back Iran's nuclear program by months -- coverage sharply criticised by Hegseth. "Whether it's fake news CNN, MSNBC or the New York Times, there's been fawning coverage of a preliminary assessment." The document was "leaked because someone had an agenda to try to muddy the waters and make it look like this historic strike wasn't successful," Hegseth said. Trump has also lashed out at coverage of the intelligence report, calling for journalists to lose their jobs. - 'Get a big shovel' - Hegseth did not definitively state that the enriched uranium and centrifuges at the heart of Iran's controversial nuclear program had been wiped out, but cited intelligence officials -- although giving little detail -- as saying the nuclear facilities were destroyed. "If you want to know what's going on at Fordo, you better go there and get a big shovel, because no one's under there right now," Hegseth said, referring to the deep-underground nuclear site. Among the officials cited by Hegseth was US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, who said the previous day that "Iran's nuclear facilities have been destroyed." He also referred to a statement by CIA chief John Ratcliffe that said: "A body of credible intelligence indicates Iran's nuclear program has been severely damaged by the recent, targeted strikes." Ratcliffe pointed to a "historically reliable and accurate" source of information indicating that "several key Iranian nuclear facilities were destroyed and would have to be rebuilt over the course of years." International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi, speaking Thursday on French radio, meanwhile said Iran's uranium-enriching centrifuges had been knocked out. "Given power of these (bombs) and the characteristics of a centrifuge, we already know that these centrifuges are no longer operational," Grossi said. Israel launched an unprecedented air campaign targeting Iranian nuclear sites, scientists and top military brass on June 13 in a bid to end the country's nuclear program, which Tehran says is for civilian purposes but Washington and other powers insist is aimed at acquiring atomic weapons. Trump had spent weeks pursuing a diplomatic path to replace the nuclear deal with Tehran that he tore up during his first term in 2018, but he ultimately decided to take military action. The US operation was massive, involving more than 125 US aircraft including stealth bombers, fighters and aerial refueling tankers as well as a guided missile submarine.

US Bunker Bombs Used To Strike Iran's Fordow Nuclear Site Took 15 Years To Develop
US Bunker Bombs Used To Strike Iran's Fordow Nuclear Site Took 15 Years To Develop

News18

timea day ago

  • Politics
  • News18

US Bunker Bombs Used To Strike Iran's Fordow Nuclear Site Took 15 Years To Develop

Last Updated: Caine described Operation Midnight Hammer as the result of 15 years of intense preparation 'Bunker bombs" used by the United States last week to strike Iran's Fordow nuclear fuel enrichment plant were under production for 15 years before the US even knew about the extent of the Tehran threat. The US struck three nuclear sites in Iran on June 21 using powerful bunker-busting bombs, marking the first use of weapon was used in combat for the first time. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Lt. Gen. Dan Caine has said that the heavy-duty bunker bombs used were designed specifically for the deeply buried site. Even though the US first learnt about the Fordow plant in 2009, it could not act due to the unavailability of a 'weapon that could adequately strike and kill this target," Caine said, the New York Post reported. This situation forced the US to produce 30,000-pound GBU-57 series MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator) bunker-buster bombs. The June 21 strike was meticulously crafted by the Pentagon to meet the precise demands of targeting Iran's Fordow facility. The operation focused on two key ventilation shafts intended to guide the bunker-busting bombs deep into the underground site. According to Caine, Iranian forces had tried to defend the shafts by sealing them with concrete. 'The mission planners had anticipated this scenario — they prepared for every detail," he said. 'The initial weapon forcibly removed the concrete covering, exposing the main shaft beneath." Caine described Operation Midnight Hammer as the result of 15 years of intense preparation — from the air and tanker crews to the weapons teams that designed and assembled the munitions, and the load crews who made the strike possible. All About GBU-57 – Bunker Bombs The GBU-57 — also named Massive Ordnance Penetrator — is designed to penetrate up to 200 feet (60 meters) underground before exploding. 'To defeat these deeply buried targets, these weapons need to be designed with rather thick casings of steel, hardened steel, to sort of punch through these layers of rock," said Masao Dahlgren, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based research center. The 6.6-meter-long GBU-57 also has a specialized fuse as 'you need an explosive that's not going to immediately explode under that much shock and pressure," Dahlgren said. The only aircraft capable of deploying the GBU-57 is the B-2 Spirit, a stealth bomber. The US employed seven B-2s in the Iran strikes — aircraft that can fly 6,000 nautical miles (9,600 kilometers) without refueling and which are designed to 'penetrate an enemy's most sophisticated defenses and threaten its most valued, and heavily defended, targets," according to the US military. 'This was the largest B-2 operational strike in US history and the second-longest B-2 mission ever flown," Caine said. Several B-2s proceeded west over the Pacific as a decoy while the bombers that would take part in the strikes headed east — a 'deception effort known only to an extremely small number of planners and key leaders," the general said. (with inputs from AFP)

Donald Trump targets Democrats & media after Pentagon leak on Iran strikes, White House defends Operation Midnight Hammer
Donald Trump targets Democrats & media after Pentagon leak on Iran strikes, White House defends Operation Midnight Hammer

Time of India

timea day ago

  • Politics
  • Time of India

Donald Trump targets Democrats & media after Pentagon leak on Iran strikes, White House defends Operation Midnight Hammer

U.S. President Donald Trump has accused congressional Democrats of leaking classified details regarding recent American military strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said, 'The Democrats are the ones who leaked the information on the PERFECT FLIGHT to the Nuclear Sites in Iran. They should be prosecuted.' He did not provide evidence to support the allegation. Trump also took aim at media coverage of the leak and called for journalists involved in the reporting to be fired. Operation Midnight Hammer: What was leaked? The controversy follows the leak of an early report from the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), which questioned the impact of Operation Midnight Hammer. The DIA's preliminary assessment suggested that the strikes may not have significantly damaged Iran's nuclear program, contrary to initial claims from U.S. officials. The operation, conducted over the weekend, involved B-2 bombers deploying over a dozen GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs on Iran's Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities. Tomahawk cruise missiles were also fired from a U.S. Navy submarine toward a third site in Isfahan. The military action came after Israel's June 13 air campaign, which targeted Iranian scientists and facilities. White House and Pentagon defend operation amid backlash The leak angered both Trump and top defense officials, who dismissed the DIA's conclusions as premature. In response, the White House restricted classified information access to Congress—a decision that has triggered sharp criticism from Democratic lawmakers. During a Pentagon press briefing, senior adviser Pete Hegseth defended the strike. 'President Donald Trump created the conditions to end the war, decimating—choose your word—Iran's nuclear capabilities,' he said. Hegseth criticized major news outlets including CNN and The New York Times, claiming the leak was used to discredit Trump's military decision: 'It was leaked because someone had an agenda to make it look like this historic strike wasn't successful.' Karoline Leavitt criticizes CNN reporter White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt also accused the media of distorting facts. Speaking at the briefing in a formal navy blazer and subtle gold jewelry, Leavitt described the Iran operation as 'one of the most successful in U.S. history.' She specifically named CNN reporter Natasha Bertrand, alleging she was 'used by people who dislike Donald Trump in this government to push fake and false narratives.' CNN responded by standing behind Bertrand and her reporting. Trump has continued to insist the strikes were a 'spectacular military success' that 'obliterated' Iran's nuclear fallout from the Pentagon leak has deepened political divisions, while the impact of the Iran strikes remains under scrutiny.

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