Fantasy baseball cheat sheet: Add Drew Rasmussen, Agustín Ramírez and more THE BAT X insights

New York Times

5 days ago

The MLB trade deadline is quickly approaching, so competitive teams are buying while down-and-out teams are selling — and fantasy rosters are shuffling. Knowing who to start, sit, fade and trade can be challenging. Using Derek Carty's THE BAT X projection system, The Athletic has developed a weekly rundown to inform fantasy managers about the road ahead.
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THE BAT X has been the most accurate original projection system in fantasy for five consecutive years and provides estimates based on a wide range of metrics, including Statcast metrics like exit velocity and barrels, as well as ballpark effects, weather conditions, matchups and much more. Another important concept to understand is regression to the mean, which means players performing above their typical level of play are likely to decline, while those underperforming are likely to improve.
This week, THE BAT X has Tampa Bay's righty Drew Rasmussen as the top waiver-wire (pitchers) target. Not only is he 7-5 with a 2.93 ERA, but he gets two starts this week and is ranked 10th among two-start pitchers. His Statcast metrics are mixed: He's not walking batters often, keeping barrels down and forcing ground balls, but is giving up hard hits and 21.9 Whiff% (25th percentile).
If you're looking for a reliever, THE BAT X thinks Washington's bullpen could have a combined ERA under 4.00. Lefty Jose A. Ferrer is widely available and has 18 holds on the season in 51.2 innings pitched. While his ERA is 4.88, his xERA is 3.48, and Ferrer forces ground balls, doesn't walk many batters and limits hard hits. He relies primarily on his sinker, mixing in changeups and sliders.
Royals' top prospect Jac Caglianone hasn't lived up to expectations or his expected stats, with a .197 wOBA but a .317 xwOBA; however, he was placed on the 10-day IL, so it's not the time to start believing in him (unless you have an open IL spot and patience). Atop the hitters to fade list, Isaac Paredes suffered a more severe right hamstring injury than initially anticipated. If you need a corner infielder to replace him, Miami's Agustín Ramírez (C, 1B) could be a good fit. Second on the waiver targets list, Ramírez has 15 home runs and a .356 xwOBA, .283 xBA, and .513 xSLG. He needs to improve on plate discipline, but the power is there.
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And there's more … so much more. Remember, projections can't always predict breakout seasons, so while Cal Raleigh is on the fade list, the expected regression based on past performance may impact his station there. He's not a fade. With Aaron Judge's injury news, Raleigh could take home AL MVP honors this year. THE BAT X is a highly accurate system, but it's still a model that can't predict everything.
Projections are based on a 12-team, mixed-league roto format with 23-player rosters. For a more thorough explanation of THE BAT X, read Carty's explainer.
For first-time readers, we compare players' year-to-date value (value to this point in the season) against their projected rest-of-season value (value for the remainder of the season and not including YTD value). Values are expressed as dollars, and $0 represents a starting caliber player in the aforementioned 12-team mixed roto league format. This gives you an idea of which players may be available on your waiver wire, their value for the remainder of the year, and why you should grab them before anyone else can. But because this is a model, you'll want to use the projections alongside knowledge of your league.
Like the waiver wire, fades are determined based on the year-to-date roster value compared to THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. Many talented players, who you could very well hold based on roster construction, are on this list. However, the point is that their success is projected to drop off; due to their YTD performance, they could be valuable trade bait and get you a higher return than their worth for the remainder of the season.
Trade targets are similar to the waiver wire and fades, determined by current roster value versus THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. The projections indicate that you might want these players on your roster for the rest of the season. You can even compare this list to the 'Fade or Trade' list above to see if there are deals to be made. The names on this list are well-known, but these players haven't yet lived up to their previous or expected success, meaning you may be able to acquire a player on the come-up for a good value.
Here are hitters with favorable pitching matchups this week. The 'Fantasy $Value' indicates a player's value in the matchup listed, while the 'Underlying $Value' refers to the skill level or expected performance of the player based on THE BAT X's advanced metrics and context-neutral data outside of the specific matchup listed. It's the player's value without external conditions like ballpark, the opponent, weather and their position in the lineup. It helps to separate a player's raw core ability from the value in a given matchup.
Here's a look at hitters who have been over- and underperforming using weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) and expected weighted on-base percentage (xwOBA). Batters with an xwOBA lower than their actual wOBA could fall to numbers closer to expected, while hitters with lower wOBAs could surge as the season continues. This list includes players who have overperformed in the past 30 days, according to wOBA and xwOBA.
The players on this list are the top underperformers in the past 30 days based on wOBA and xwOBA. Some of that underperformance can be chalked up to luck, and they're likely to rebound to numbers closer to their xwOBA.
Finally, we get to the top-scoring offenses of the week. Based on matchups, these five teams are projected to score the most runs this week, meaning the individual players on each team could have fantasy values that exceed their underlying values. This list could help you identify streamers or make tough decisions in weekly lineups.
The top one-start pitchers list is limited to players rostered at 50% or less. Because these players are more available, you may find a streamer worthy of a start in a competitive league if you need help in pitching categories. Otherwise, the list can aid in making tough roster calls.
Two-start pitchers for the week are ranked based on THE BAT X's projection system, and the list excludes those with a projected negative value. Two-start pitchers are valuable in weekly lineups, and these projections can help you find a plug-and-play option. The projected stats can also help you decide who to start, who to bench and who to replace.
The pitchers on the following list may be aces or above average, but they are projected to be in tough matchups that could hurt category stats or points in daily and weekly lineups.
Based on matchups, the following bullpens are ripe with relievers to stream this week. If you have RP spots to fill or improve, this is the list for you.
THE BAT X projections powered by EV Analytics.
(Photo of Drew Rasmussen: Julio Aguilar / Getty Images)