Will Q4 Results Move Nike's Stock Up?
Nike logo is seen at the shopping mall in Krakow, Poland on June 16, 2025. (Photo by Jakub ... More Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Nike (NYSE: NKE) is set to announce its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings (for the year ending in May) on Thursday, June 26, 2025, with analysts anticipating earnings of 12 cents per share on $10.71 billion in revenue. This would reflect an 88% decline in earnings year-over-year and a 15% decrease in sales compared to the previous year's figures of 99 cents per share and $12.62 billion in revenue. Historically, NKE stock has decreased 65% of the time after earnings announcements, with a median one-day drop of 6.8% and a maximum observed decline of 20%.
For the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, which concluded on February 28, the company indicated weak performance and expected a low-to-mid-teens revenue downturn in the fourth quarter. Additionally, gross margins are projected to compress by 4 to 5 percentage points due to aggressive inventory clearance strategies. The full-year fiscal 2025 revenue is expected to decrease by 11%, with a slight 1% decline anticipated for fiscal 2026, indicating a slow and gradual recovery. The company has a current market capitalization of $88 billion. Revenue over the past twelve months was $48 billion, and it operated profitably with $4.9 billion in operating profits and net income of $4.5 billion.
For event-driven traders, historical patterns could provide an advantage, whether by preparing before earnings or responding to post-release movements. That said, if you're looking for upside with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 with returns exceeding 91% since its launch.
View earnings reaction history for all stocks.
Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
Additional data for the observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
NKE 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not effective if the correlation is low) is to comprehend the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, identify a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the suitable trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D have the highest correlation, a trader can take a 'long' position for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on the 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D denotes the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and following 5D returns.
NKE Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
Discover more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (encompassing all three, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), delivering substantial returns for investors.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
New York Post
10 minutes ago
- New York Post
Aussie couple outraged by $3,500 fee Eithad airline charged to postpone Middle East flight — days removed from war in the region
When an Australian couple tried postponing a trip to the Middle East, citing the ongoing tension in the region, they were told it was cost them an extra $3,500. Sharon Latour and her husband were set to fly through Abu Dhabi on Etihad Airways this Wednesday. However, their business class flight has not been cancelled or postponed, and will take off as scheduled — conflict or no. Advertisement 3 The couple are 'genuinely scared' to fly through Abu Dhabi this week. Mike Campbell/NurPhoto/Shutterstock Etihad representatives said in order to switch their trip to sometime in 2026, they'd need to fork over another $3,500. 'I kept repeating over the phone: 'We're genuinely scared, we're not making this up.' [But] not a care in the world,' Latour told The Guardian. 'They're just like, 'Well, pay the [fee].'' Advertisement 3 People sit at Hamad International Airport after Qatar reopened its airspace following Iran's missile attack REUTERS The Australian government has been warning travelers to avoid the region after Israel and Iran spent 12 days at war this month. Now, officials are saying stronger protections are needed for Australian passengers. Unfortunately, Latour booked the flights while in Malaysia. Had she done so in Australia, she at least would've had some legal standing to challenge the fee. Advertisement 3 The airline only rebooks or reschedules flights they are forced to cancel. Mike Campbell/NurPhoto/Shutterstock 'Etihad flights are operating normally and to schedule,' the airline said Friday night. 'The airline only operates through approved airspace and we would never operate a flight unless it was safe to do so.' The airline permits re-bookings and offered refunds if they are forced to cancel a flight. Latour told The Guardian she will not be boarding her flight Wednesday.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Start buying shares for £500? Here's how – and some reasons why!
One myth about the stock market is that it takes a lot of money for someone to start buying shares. In fact, it is possible to do so with just a few hundred pounds. I actually think there are good reasons to consider doing so. One is that it means someone can be in the market sooner, rather than waiting years or perhaps even decades before they have saved up a large tum to get going. From the perspective of a long-term investor, a longer timeframe can offer a potentially sizeable advantage. Most people make some beginner's mistakes in the market, realistically – and starting on a small scale can also mean that they are less costly. The 'why' may now be clearer – but what about the 'how'? To start buying shares requires a practical means of doing so. So a new investor should consider how to put the £500 into the market. There are lots of options when it comes to share-dealing accounts, Stocks and Shares ISAs, and trading apps. Each investor has their own circumstances and so it pays to make a considered choice. Learning how the stock market works in detail can take years. But upfront an investor ought at least to come to grips with important concepts, from valuing shares to managing risks. For example, even with £500 it is possible to diversify across different shares. There is a difference between a good business and a good investment, so just putting money into successful businesses is not necessarily a smart way to invest. That helps explain why I do not own shares like Apple or Nvidia at the moment. I regard both as solid businesses, but do not think their current share prices offer me a compelling investment opportunity. What sorts of shares do I think someone should consider when they want to start investing, then? One mistake many people make is being too greedy. I understand – people start buying shares because they want to build wealth. But, in the stock market as elsewhere in life, opportunities that look too good to be true usually are. Starting with a well-known, proven business at a decent price could be attractive. That is why I think new investors should consider baker Greggs (LSE: GRG). The business is easy to understand – indeed, many of us are quite familiar with it from shopping there. Greggs has a proven business model and it already benefits from economies of scale that I think could grow if it expands its footprint. There are lots of opportunities to do that, as the company itself has recognized. Customer demand is high and resilient. While the industry is not glamorous, Greggs makes money thanks to its strong brand, huge shop network, and unique twists on well-known products. But investors have been worrying about profitability, with risks like a weak economy hurting sales and higher employment costs eating into profits. The result is that it is 31% cheaper to buy a Greggs share today than it was a year ago. I see that as an opportunity. Indeed, I started buying Greggs shares for my portfolio in recent months. A 3.6% dividend yield is the icing on the cake. The post Start buying shares for £500? Here's how – and some reasons why! appeared first on The Motley Fool UK. More reading 5 Stocks For Trying To Build Wealth After 50 One Top Growth Stock from the Motley Fool C Ruane has positions in Greggs Plc. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Apple, Greggs Plc, and Nvidia. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. Motley Fool UK 2025
Bloomberg
an hour ago
- Bloomberg
Powell and Lagarde Count Cost of Trump's Turbulence
The global economy's concussion from five months of Donald Trump's presidency is likely to feature when five of the world's leading central bank chiefs discuss monetary policy in public on Tuesday. From tariff-related trade ructions to oil-price gyrations caused by Middle East hostilities, the question of how to handle the fallout from White House decisions may loom large as Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell speaks on a panel with peers from the euro zone, Japan, South Korea and the UK.
