Turkey Advances Military Buildup Against Backdrop Of Israel-Iran War
As Israel and Iran fought each other in the unprecedented Twelve-Day War in June, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was busy continuing a significant buildup of his country's armed forces with acquisitions of advanced foreign and homegrown systems.
Days after Israel launched its devastating air campaign against high-value targets across Iran, Erdogan announced that Turkey is 'making production plans to bring our medium- and long-range missile stockpiles to a level that ensures deterrence, in light of recent developments.'
'God willing, in the not-too-distant future, we will reach a defense capacity that is so strong that no one will even dare to act tough toward us,' he added.
Turkey already possesses air defense systems and offensive ballistic missiles. Erdogan's mention of a 'defense capacity' may refer to the integrated and multilayered Steel Dome national air defense system that Turkey is developing. Either way, it's possible that this latest war could convince Ankara that it also requires more ballistic missiles.
The origins of Turkey's present ballistic missile program go back to the 1990s when China allowed Turkey to produce its B-611 under license, giving Ankara the know-how to develop its own ballistic missiles over time. Turkey later unveiled the Bora-1 short-range ballistic missile in 2017 and test-fired another longer-range homegrown SRBM, the Tayfun, in the Black Sea in October 2022 and February 2025. Turkey signed a contract with Indonesia for Khan SRBMs, the export version of the Bora-1, in November 2022. Ankara is also developing a medium-range ballistic missile known as the Cenk, the Turkish word for war, which will significantly increase the reach of its offensive arsenal.
Any increase in ballistic missile production is likely to attract more foreign interest in Turkey's SRBMs, especially as more countries seek to expand and improve their military arsenals amid heightened global instability. With Iran's ballistic missile arsenal, presently the largest in the Middle East, battered by the war, it's not inconceivable that ramped-up Turkish ballistic missile production could see Ankara's arsenal meet or even exceed Tehran's quantitatively over time, especially if Israel strikes again. It seems likely that, as is already the case with its homegrown drones, Turkey can win more export contracts for its ballistic missiles than Iran, which only exported such missiles to Russia.
However, Erdogan doubtlessly doesn't plan on putting all his eggs in the ballistic missile basket and almost certainly comprehends that a sophisticated defense capacity plays a vital deterrence role.
The Turkish president announced the Steel Dome last year, directly comparing it with Israel's Iron Dome—although unlike the latter, the Steel Dome is a multilayered network of integrated systems. Turkey has already developed and produced a series of short- to long-range systems. While it has favorably compared its high-altitude Siper system to the Russian S-400, the current operational version of that homegrown Turkish system still lacks an anti-ballistic capability. Furthermore, Turkey's S-400s, the only system it presently has that does, aren't being integrated into the Steel Dome.
Turkey undoubtedly noted Israel's successful deployment of air-launched ballistic missiles to knock out Iran's air defenses. Tehran's air defenses included the Russian S-300 and indigenous Bavar-373.
As neighboring Iran's air defenses failed to intercept any Israeli fighter jets operating deep inside the country's airspace, Erdogan once again requested his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron authorize Turkey to co-produce a version of the SAMP/T air defense missile system. Integrating the SAMP/T into the Steel Dome could markedly enhance Turkey's anti-ballistic defenses and increase overall compatibility with NATO air defenses, something Ankara could never do with its standalone S-400s.
Aside from building up his missile arsenal, Erdogan is also pushing for an extensive upgrade of his air force. Past political decisions, such as the contentious S-400 acquisition in 2019, have significantly impacted the modernization of Turkey's air force. Not only was Turkey banned from buying the fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II, but it also faced obstacles in upgrading its F-16 fleet—a 2021 request for modern Block 70 F-16s wasn't approved until after Ankara acceded to Sweden's NATO accession. Germany was also reluctant to approve a Turkish acquisition of the Eurofighter Typhoon and, as a member of the consortium, could prevent any export of the fighter.
All of that appears to have begun shifting in Ankara's favor.
In an interview with Turkish media published on June 29, U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack expressed his belief that a solution to the F-35 issue could be reached 'by year-end.' In another Turkish media interview the following day, British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said Britain was 'making excellent progress' on securing a Turkish Eurofighter deal, adding that 'we are certain all four consortium partners support this sale.'
Turkey presently seeks 40 new F-16s, 40 F-35As, and 40 Eurofighters. Acquiring all 120 of these fighter jets within the next decade would hugely improve its air force capabilities. For example, in addition to the Eurofighter, Turkey also wants the accompanying long-range Meteor air-to-air missile, which has a range exceeding the AIM-120 used by Israeli fighter jets.
Securing these acquisitions will help ensure that the Turkish Air Force doesn't risk becoming obsolescent, as its Iranian counterpart did long ago, leaving it utterly helpless in the face of Israel's aerial juggernaut.
It's noteworthy that these developments roughly coincided with the Twelve-Day War as they all serve as apt reminders that Turkey is actively working to ensure it's adequately equipped and prepared should it one day fight such a modern war.
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