Latest news with #Twelve-DayWar
Irish Independent
04-07-2025
- Politics
- Irish Independent
Charles Lipson: Why Trump's crushing defeat of Iran is having seismic reverberations far beyond the Middle East
Now that the smoke has cleared from the Twelve-Day War, what effects will Israel and America's decisive victory have on Iran, the Persian Gulf and the wider world? Some are already clear, while others will take time to emerge. Together, they will be enormous.
Forbes
02-07-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Turkey Advances Military Buildup Against Backdrop Of Israel-Iran War
RIZE, TURKIYE - FEBRUARY 03: Turkiye's longest-range missile 'Tayfun' conducts test flight, in Rize, ... More Turkiye on February 03, 2025. (Photo by Fikret Delal/Anadolu via Getty Images) As Israel and Iran fought each other in the unprecedented Twelve-Day War in June, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was busy continuing a significant buildup of his country's armed forces with acquisitions of advanced foreign and homegrown systems. Days after Israel launched its devastating air campaign against high-value targets across Iran, Erdogan announced that Turkey is 'making production plans to bring our medium- and long-range missile stockpiles to a level that ensures deterrence, in light of recent developments.' 'God willing, in the not-too-distant future, we will reach a defense capacity that is so strong that no one will even dare to act tough toward us,' he added. Turkey already possesses air defense systems and offensive ballistic missiles. Erdogan's mention of a 'defense capacity' may refer to the integrated and multilayered Steel Dome national air defense system that Turkey is developing. Either way, it's possible that this latest war could convince Ankara that it also requires more ballistic missiles. The origins of Turkey's present ballistic missile program go back to the 1990s when China allowed Turkey to produce its B-611 under license, giving Ankara the know-how to develop its own ballistic missiles over time. Turkey later unveiled the Bora-1 short-range ballistic missile in 2017 and test-fired another longer-range homegrown SRBM, the Tayfun, in the Black Sea in October 2022 and February 2025. Turkey signed a contract with Indonesia for Khan SRBMs, the export version of the Bora-1, in November 2022. Ankara is also developing a medium-range ballistic missile known as the Cenk, the Turkish word for war, which will significantly increase the reach of its offensive arsenal. Any increase in ballistic missile production is likely to attract more foreign interest in Turkey's SRBMs, especially as more countries seek to expand and improve their military arsenals amid heightened global instability. With Iran's ballistic missile arsenal, presently the largest in the Middle East, battered by the war, it's not inconceivable that ramped-up Turkish ballistic missile production could see Ankara's arsenal meet or even exceed Tehran's quantitatively over time, especially if Israel strikes again. It seems likely that, as is already the case with its homegrown drones, Turkey can win more export contracts for its ballistic missiles than Iran, which only exported such missiles to Russia. However, Erdogan doubtlessly doesn't plan on putting all his eggs in the ballistic missile basket and almost certainly comprehends that a sophisticated defense capacity plays a vital deterrence role. The Turkish president announced the Steel Dome last year, directly comparing it with Israel's Iron Dome—although unlike the latter, the Steel Dome is a multilayered network of integrated systems. Turkey has already developed and produced a series of short- to long-range systems. While it has favorably compared its high-altitude Siper system to the Russian S-400, the current operational version of that homegrown Turkish system still lacks an anti-ballistic capability. Furthermore, Turkey's S-400s, the only system it presently has that does, aren't being integrated into the Steel Dome. Turkey undoubtedly noted Israel's successful deployment of air-launched ballistic missiles to knock out Iran's air defenses. Tehran's air defenses included the Russian S-300 and indigenous Bavar-373. As neighboring Iran's air defenses failed to intercept any Israeli fighter jets operating deep inside the country's airspace, Erdogan once again requested his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron authorize Turkey to co-produce a version of the SAMP/T air defense missile system. Integrating the SAMP/T into the Steel Dome could markedly enhance Turkey's anti-ballistic defenses and increase overall compatibility with NATO air defenses, something Ankara could never do with its standalone S-400s. Aside from building up his missile arsenal, Erdogan is also pushing for an extensive upgrade of his air force. Past political decisions, such as the contentious S-400 acquisition in 2019, have significantly impacted the modernization of Turkey's air force. Not only was Turkey banned from buying the fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II, but it also faced obstacles in upgrading its F-16 fleet—a 2021 request for modern Block 70 F-16s wasn't approved until after Ankara acceded to Sweden's NATO accession. Germany was also reluctant to approve a Turkish acquisition of the Eurofighter Typhoon and, as a member of the consortium, could prevent any export of the fighter. All of that appears to have begun shifting in Ankara's favor. In an interview with Turkish media published on June 29, U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack expressed his belief that a solution to the F-35 issue could be reached 'by year-end.' In another Turkish media interview the following day, British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said Britain was 'making excellent progress' on securing a Turkish Eurofighter deal, adding that 'we are certain all four consortium partners support this sale.' Turkey presently seeks 40 new F-16s, 40 F-35As, and 40 Eurofighters. Acquiring all 120 of these fighter jets within the next decade would hugely improve its air force capabilities. For example, in addition to the Eurofighter, Turkey also wants the accompanying long-range Meteor air-to-air missile, which has a range exceeding the AIM-120 used by Israeli fighter jets. Securing these acquisitions will help ensure that the Turkish Air Force doesn't risk becoming obsolescent, as its Iranian counterpart did long ago, leaving it utterly helpless in the face of Israel's aerial juggernaut. It's noteworthy that these developments roughly coincided with the Twelve-Day War as they all serve as apt reminders that Turkey is actively working to ensure it's adequately equipped and prepared should it one day fight such a modern war.
France 24
27-06-2025
- Business
- France 24
Israel-Iran war: Back from the brink of an oil shock?
12:52 From the show This week, Charles Pellegrin takes a look back at what's being called "the Twelve-Day War" with Dr Jorge León, senior vice president and head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy. The confrontation between Israel and Iran with the assistance of the United States has weighed on global markets, sending oil prices surging amid concerns that oil supply could be heavily disrupted. But those fears have been – at least temporarily – cast aside after a fragile ceasefire was announced by US President Donald Trump. So what happens now?
Le Figaro
25-06-2025
- Politics
- Le Figaro
Philippe Gélie's Editorial: 'Israel-Iran, War And Peace According To Donald Trump'
The U.S. president's peace plan feels more sleight of hand than statesmanship. Civilization has taken a strange path between the two thousand pages of Leo Tolstoy and Donald Trump's tweets. Today, war and peace are declared in a few concise sentences printed in capital letters. The president of the world's leading power seems convinced that he can bend reality to his will — even the most brutal reality, that of war. The ceasefire, pulled out from under his red MAGA hat on the night of Monday to Tuesday, encountered a few hiccups at the start, but appears to be successfully enforced now that the master of the game has expressed his wrath against any violation. It should be noted that, since his transformation into a 'peacemaker,' Trump has treated Israel and Iran as strictly equals, alternately promising them 'love, peace, and prosperity' or facing his wrath if they 'stray from the road of truth and righteousness.' This development marks an unexpected decline in Israel's strategic advantage: only the day before, the warlord who felt triumphant after massive airstrikes against Iranian nuclear sites floated the idea of a regime change in Tehran, using the slogan 'Make Iran Great Again, MIGA!' In the era of Donald Trump, slogans accompany battles, and can even influence their outcome. While the region seemed on the brink of escalation Monday evening, the American president fortunately declared that the Iranian response was merely formal, going so far as to thank the mullahs' regime for warning him. In the process, Trump announced the strangest of ceasefires, in which he said one of the parties had agreed to endure enemy fire for 12 hours without flinching. All this to end the conflict within the deadline imposed by its new name: the 'Twelve-Day War,' as a reference, of course, to Israel's victory over the Arab armies in 1967 during the Six-Day War. This peace negotiation looks a little bit like a magic trick: Is the Iranian nuclear issue resolved or merely glossed over? No one knows — not even Trump — what long-term results his quick fixes will yield. This criterion carries little weight compared to publicity stunts and instant celebrations. But, in the real world, it could come back to haunt us.
Mid East Info
25-06-2025
- Business
- Mid East Info
Gold drops as markets cheer Middle East ceasefire – but for how long? - Middle East Business News and Information
By Daniela Sabin Hathorn, senior market analyst at Gold prices are facing renewed pressure as markets cautiously celebrate a declared ceasefire between Iran and Israel. The price of XAU/USD has dropped below its 20-day simple moving average, a key technical indicator, reflecting a shift away from safe-haven assets and into riskier options like equities. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also fallen below 50 for the first time since mid-May, when gold saw a deeper correction down to $3,120. Despite the pullback, the move appears to be relatively controlled. Long-term fundamentals supporting gold remain intact, though technical traders are now eyeing the $3,330 level as a key support zone. A decisive move below this threshold could signal a deeper retracement and a change in market sentiment. Gold (XAU/USD) daily chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The broader market response to Iran's recent military action has been surprisingly subdued. The attack—targeting a U.S. military base—was expected to rattle investors, yet the global reaction has been more one of tentative relief than alarm. This suggests the strike was largely symbolic rather than escalatory in nature, limiting its impact on financial markets. Adding a layer of finality to the episode, former U.S. President Donald Trump announced that a ceasefire had been reached, dubbing the event the 'Twelve-Day War.' His statement implied that the conflict had effectively concluded, though many geopolitical analysts caution that this may be an overly optimistic interpretation. Prior to the agreement, Trump emphasized the absence of American casualties and praised Iran for issuing a prior warning: 'I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost. Most importantly, they've gotten it all out of their 'system,' and there will, hopefully, be no further hate. Perhaps Iran can now proceed to peace and harmony in the region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same.' While intended to calm tensions, these remarks may have unintended political consequences. Public praise from a former U.S. president could weaken Tehran's domestic narrative that the attack was a powerful and deliberate move. Instead, it may appear conciliatory, even orchestrated, potentially undermining the regime's posture both at home and in the broader region. This raises broader questions: Are these confident declarations of de-escalation premature? And how can such a significant event—a direct confrontation many feared might spiral into a regional war—elicit such a subdued response compared to earlier crises? The disparity in global reaction suggests a shifting global perspective. Geopolitical threats may still carry weight, but market participants increasingly appear to differentiate between symbolic posturing and genuine escalation. Whether this ceasefire marks a true turning point or simply a pause in hostilities remains to be seen.
