Thailand: What now after PM Paetongtarn's suspension? – DW – 07/01/2025

DW

01-07-2025

Another embattled member of the powerful Shinawatra family is facing removal from office. Paetongtarn's father Thaksin was ousted in a coup, and her aunt Yingluck faced a similar fate. Is history repeating itself?
Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thailand's youngest prime minister, was suspended Tuesday while the Constitutional Court considers a petition for her removal.
Her suspension comes after a protest in Bangkok over the weekend called for her ouster following a leaked phone conversation between Paetongtarn and Cambodia's former leader, Hun Sen, over an escalating border dispute.
Her perceived deference to Hun Sen ignited public anger in Thailand. Paetongtarn was accused of undermining the country's national interests.
For her opponents, Paetongtarn's suspension is "their first victory," according to Puangthong Pawakapan, an associate professor of political science at Thailand's Chulalongkorn University.
"Paetongtarn has destroyed the legitimacy of her Pheu Thai party [to run the country], especially after her call with Hun Sen," she told DW.
"The parliament will vote for a new prime minister and Pheu Thai could probably hold out a bit longer, but not long, no more than three months," she predicted.
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Paetongtarn now has 15 days to present her defence. In the meantime, Deputy Prime Minister Suriya Jungrungruangkit will serve as acting leader.
Paetongtarn will remain in the Cabinet as culture minister following a reshuffle.
"She will most likely be dismissed, given how things have gone previously," Punchada Sirivunnabood, a professor of political science at Thailand's Mahidol University, told DW.
If Paetongtarn is eventually removed, the 38-year-old would be the second prime minister from Pheu Thai to be dismissed since August last year.
Her predecessor, Srettha Thavisin, was removed by the Constitutional Court after less than a year in power on charges of ethics violations.
The same court also disbanded the progressive Move Forward party, which won the most seats in the 2023 election. Its leaders were banned from politics for 10 years.
The top court ruled in favor of the Election Commission's petition that Move Forward had attempted to overthrow the monarchy by pledging to reform the lese majeste law, which shields the Thai royal family from criticism.
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The Constitutional Court's suspension of Paetongtarn came on the same day as the start of a trial against her father, Thaksin Shinawatra.
Thaksin is charged with insulting the monarchy over an interview he gave to a South Korean newspaper, Chosun Ilbo, in 2015.
The former prime minister, who was ousted in the 2006 coup, was widely seen as the driving force behind Paetongtarn's government.
He returned to Thailand in 2023 after 15 years in exile. Thaksin's return was part of a grand reconciliation between Pheu Thai and the conservative establishment — its long-time adversary.
Thaksin, the first elected Thai leader to finish a four-year term, rose to power in 2001 on a wave of populist policies. His appeal, albeit waning, has long challenged the military and royalist establishment.
Thaksin-backed parties, the main force in Thai politics for the past two decades, have been repeatedly ousted after court rulings and street protests.
In 2014, Thaksin's sister, Yingluck, was removed by the Constitution Court for abuse of power just days before her civilian government was ousted in a coup. Yingluck was facing growing protests calling for her resignation.
Paetongtarn is now also facing protests. Many in the demonstrations over the weekend are longtime supporters of the conservative, pro-royalist "Yellow Shirt" movement, who opposed Paetongtarn's father and aunt.
"The power of Thaksin and the Shinawatra family has weakened. There are ups and downs. It will be extremely difficult for the Shinawatra family to hold onto power," said Punchada.
But the Shinawatras are not expected to relinquish power. Analysts predict that Chaikasem Nitisiri, Pheu Thai's third and final prime ministerial candidate in the 2023 election, will be nominated to be the next person to lead Thailand.
Puangthong believes the potential appointment of Chaikasem, who served as justice minister in the Yingluck cabinet until his dismissal in the 2014 coup, would not quell the anti-government protests.
The establishment's ideal candidate, according to Puangthong, would be someone who is "loyal [to the monarchy] like Prayuth," the army chief behind the coup that toppled Yingluck's government and who remained in power until 2023.
Puangthong stressed that Thailand will not progress "without politicians who dare to go against the bureaucracy, the capitalists, and the monopoly. Pheu Thai doesn't have the courage and is incapable of doing so."
She added that the main opposition People's Party, which was founded after the dissolution of its predecessors, Move Forward and Future Forward, "seems to be the only party with the most courage, but they couldn't do anything."
Despite winning the most seats in the 2023 election, Move Forward's leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, was blocked from taking the top job by the Senate, whose members were hand-picked by the former military junta.
"It's been the same for the past 20 years. Thailand is still in the same cycle. There is a coup, then an elected government, then street protests," said Punchada.
"I hope that this time around the demonstrations won't bring the military back into politics," she added.