Mamdani's rise in NYC could open the door for an AOC presidential run
As the Democrats continue to soul-search in the wake of President Donald Trump's recapture of the White House, certain members of the left view this as an opportunity to appropriate the party for their own means.
Democrats are still searching for a path forward, and a socialist rebellion within the party could be it.
We'll know if that is the case from the 2026 midterm elections, but the socialist left will have its first test this fall. New York Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani's fate in the November New York City mayoral race could be a forecast for the fate of far-left candidates in the 2026 and 2028 federal elections.
Success by Mamdani, a democratic socialist, could then lead to the presidential campaign of New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. His failure could end her run before it starts. Democrats will decide that in November.
Socialists looking to expand foothold in Democratic Party
Trump proved that a populist force could win by being disruptive, even if the party establishment is against them at the beginning. The very same can happen to Democrats as socialists and liberals work to respond to MAGA's takeover.
A 2022 Pew Research Center survey found that young adults actually slightly favor socialism over capitalism, and that 42% of young Democrats had favorable views of democratic socialist political leaders. As this group ages further into the electorate, the socialists already established see an opportunity to increase their presence, and those looking to break into positions of power are taking advantage of it.
With Mamdani, Democrats flirt with full-tilt socialism. But his plan is alarming. | Opinion
Mamdani's jump to the Democratic nominee for mayor is one such example. At the same time, America's most well-known (and perhaps most politically competent) young democratic socialist, AOC, has likely set much higher goals.
The de facto leader of the democratic socialist movement, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, doesn't seem to be running for president a third time, but he has been helping AOC raise her national profile through their 'fighting oligarchy tour,' a speaking tour in which the pair spread their anti-elite message.
AOC has not made an explicit indication of whether she would be gunning for the 2028 presidential nomination. Still, others have speculated she may pursue Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's seat in 2026, and polls indicate she may have a good opportunity to challenge that seat.
The Democratic Party is lost in the wake of Trump's second presidential victory, and the longer the Democrats drift through the second Trump presidency without direction, the more opportunity radicals will have to capture that direction for themselves.
Opinion: What can Republicans learn from a New York socialist? A great deal, actually.
Socialists have their first major test of the cycle soon
One of the reasons I have argued that Democrats need to begin finding their footing now is so that they don't get swept into the same populist trap that Republicans have had their party captured by since 2016. Success from candidates like Mamdani is evidence of this trend already beginning, and that liberal voters might be ready to speed things along.
Mamdani won his primary just weeks ago, but he is already back on the campaign trail against several other candidates who are bickering over whom to coalesce support behind.
A rejection of Mamdani in November would be a serious blow for the prospective AOC presidential campaign, as well as other socialists looking to make a political leap.
AOC and her allies are likely to see the success of Mamdani as evidence of socialist viability, at least enough so in progressive cities to make the prospect of a presidential run enticing. While they should be careful against extrapolating success in New York to potential success at a statewide or national scale, Mamdani's victory still could be a good omen for socialists expanding their profile.
Democrats face a dilemma: choosing between alienating parts of the left and integrating socialists into their movement, a challenge they also encountered when navigating Sanders' issues in the 2016 and 2020 presidential races. Democrats and Americans generally will learn a great deal more about the seriousness of this trend over the next several years. AOC will be watching and waiting.
Dace Potas is an opinion columnist for USA TODAY and a graduate of DePaul University with a degree in political science.
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