
Taiwan's GDP expected to grow 3.05% in 2025 amid export slowdown in second half
According to the report, CIER projected GDP growth to slow to around 1.08 per cent in the second half of 2025, down from an estimated 5.17 per cent increase in the first half.
The anticipated slowdown is attributed to the lingering impact of Trump-era tariff policies and a high base effect from early 2025.
According to the news platform, CIER explained that first-half growth exceeded expectations as foreign buyers accelerated orders to avoid US tariffs.
Taiwan's technology sector also benefited from strong demand, particularly driven by AI-related exports, the platform reported.
Trump's administration initially announced sweeping tariffs on April 2, including a 32 per cent tariff on Taiwanese goods, before pausing them for 90 days starting April 9 to facilitate trade negotiations.
CIER estimated Taiwan's export growth will decelerate to 6.71 per cent in the third quarter and further to 2.55 per cent in the fourth quarter, a sharp decline from 20.29 per cent in the first quarter and 27.12 per cent in the second quarter.
For the full year 2025, Taiwan's exports are projected to grow 13.74 per cent, while imports are expected to increase by 15.28 percent, the institution said.
CIER President Lien Hsien-ming noted that despite tariff challenges, Taiwan's strength in AI development should help sustain growth momentum into the second half of the year.
Lien also cautioned that the Trump administration might impose tariffs of 15-20 per cent on Taiwanese goods due to close business ties. He warned that higher tariffs could contribute to rising inflation in the U.S. by making imports more expensive.
Private investment growth is expected to moderate each quarter throughout 2025, falling from 20.77 per cent in the first quarter to 3.96 per cent in the second, 2.31 per cent in the third, and 1.69 per cent in the fourth quarter.
CIER forecasts private investments to grow 7.03 per cent for the year, with fixed capital formation rising 6.60 per cent to help drive overall GDP growth.
Private consumption is projected to increase by 1.57 per cent in 2025, tempered by a high comparison base from the previous year.
While a stronger Taiwan dollar is expected to alleviate import price pressures, recent natural disasters have pushed up food costs, and labour shortages have raised expenses in the service sector.
CIER expects Taiwan's consumer price index to rise by 1.89 per cent in 2025, remaining below the central bank's 2 per cent alert threshold.
As the U.S. dollar weakens, CIER forecasts the Taiwan dollar will average NT$30.32 against the U.S. dollar in 2025, appreciating 5.92 per cent from 2024.
Looking ahead, CIER projects Taiwan's economy to grow 2.48 per cent in 2026, according to the forecasts, reported by Focus Taiwan.
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


Times of Oman
18 hours ago
- Times of Oman
Taiwan industrial output rises for 16th straight month in June
Taipei: Taiwan's industrial production rose 18.65 per cent year-on-year in June, marking the 16th straight month of growth on the back of strong global demand for artificial intelligence applications, the Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA) said Wednesday, reported Focus Taiwan. The industrial production index rose to 111.48 in June and the manufacturing sub-index to 112.11, both record highs for the month, with the latter, which accounts for over 90 per cent of total output, jumping 20.03 per cent year-on-year, MOEA data showed. In the first half of 2025, Taiwan's industrial production index rose 16.69 per cent year-on-year to 105.66. The manufacturing sub-index climbed 17.77 per cent from a year earlier to 106.32, the Focus Taiwan report said. Speaking to reporters, Huang Wei-jie, head of the MOEA's Department of Statistics, stated that Taiwan continues to benefit from strong demand for AI development, despite uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies. Boosted by AI-related demand, production in the electronic components industry rose 22.38 per cent year-on-year, with its index hitting a record 117.31 for June, the MOEA said. The integrated circuit segment also posted a June high of 129.28, up 22.80 per cent, driven by increased 12-inch wafer output, according to the Focus Taiwan report. Driven by demand for AI and cloud services, the computer and optoelectronics industry saw production surge 81.95 per cent, with its index reaching 251.56, the MOEA said. The increase was fueled by strong shipments of servers, mobile camera lenses, semiconductor equipment and industrial computers, the MOEA added. However, Huang said growth in traditional industries remained uneven, with only the machinery sector posting a year-on-year increase in June, up 6.30 per cent, as semiconductor makers continued expanding production capacity. The base metal, chemical and fertilizer, and auto parts industries all underperformed the broader manufacturing sector in June, with year-on-year declines of 6.15 percent, 1.94 percent and 3.38 percent, respectively, according to the MOEA. While many manufacturers remained cautious about a possible reciprocal tariff from the United States as talks with Taipei continued, Huang said the sector is expected to receive an additional boost from booming AI demand in the second half of the year. Huang forecast that the manufacturing sub-index will grow by 19.5 to 23.7 per cent year-on-year in July, reaching between 114.18 and 118.18, the report added.


Muscat Daily
a day ago
- Muscat Daily
Trump accuses Obama of 'treason', without providing evidence
Washington, D.C., US – US President Donald Trump accused former President Barack Obama of 'treason' on Tuesday without providing evidence. Trump cited his intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard, who on Friday declassified documents that allegedly showed how the Obama administration laid the groundwork for an investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. What did Trump say about Obama? 'It's there, he's guilty. This was treason,' Trump said in the Oval Office on Tuesday. 'They tried to steal the election, they tried to obfuscate the election. They did things that nobody's ever imagined, even in other countries,' Trump claimed, without offering any proof. Trump's remarks came as he deflected questions from journalists about the Justice Department's decision to interview Jeffrey Epstein's former girlfriend Ghislaine Maxwell, who was convicted of helping the financier sexually abuse underage girls and is now serving a lengthy prison sentence. Obama's office slams allegations The office of the former president later hit back with a statement saying Trump's 'bizarre allegations are ridiculous and a weak attempt at distraction'. 'Out of respect for the office of the presidency, our office does not normally dignify the constant nonsense and misinformation flowing out of this White House with a response,' said Obama spokesperson Patrick Rodenbush. 'But these claims are outrageous enough to merit one.' Did Russia interfere with election? A 2017 assessment by the US intelligence community concluded that Russia used social media disinformation, hacking and bot farms to damage Democrat Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign and bolster Trump. But the same assessment determined that the impact was likely limited and there was no evidence that Russia's efforts altered the election outcome. In 2020, a bipartisan report by the Senate Intelligence Committee – spearheaded by then acting chairman Marco Rubio, now Trump's secretary of state – found that the Trump campaign sought to 'maximise the impact' of leaks of Democratic documents stolen by Russian military intelligence. DW


Times of Oman
2 days ago
- Times of Oman
Environment Authority participates in high-level political forum on sustainable development
New York: The Environment Authority on Wednesday took part in the "2025 High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development" in New York. The forum was held in New York under the theme "Advancing sustainable, inclusive, science- and evidence-based solutions for the 2030 Agenda and its SDGs for leaving no one behind". The Sultanate of Oman's delegation was led by Dr. Abdullah Ali Al Amri, Chairman of the Environment Authority, who heads the 7th session of the United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA-7). The forum focused on practical, data-driven strategies to bridge implementation gaps, notably amid interconnected global crises, including climate change, inequality and economic instability. In a speech at the forum, Al Amri laid emphasis on the seventh session of the United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA-7), scheduled to be held in Nairobi in December 2025. He said that the UNEA-7 constitutes a 'global opportunity to accelerate sustainable, knowledge-based solutions for a resilient planet." Al Amri underscored the need to devise environmental solutions with special focus on the interconnectedness that exists between environmental challenges and public health. He stressed the need to embrace an integrated approach—like "One Health" principle—to effectively address these challenges. He also underlined the importance of adopting a comprehensive approach to address environmental issues and espousing circular economy as a key factor to achieve sustainable production and consumption. In this context, he called upon countries to incorporate such solutions into their national policies. Al Amri highlighted the progress made in negotiations on the convention to control plastic pollution. He stressed the need to ratify international agreements to protect marine biodiversity beyond areas of national jurisdiction, in addition to cooperation between the United Nations Environment Assembly and parties tasked with multilateral environmental agreements to ensure effective environmental governance. The speech also undersored the urgent need to reform the global financial structure and provide sustainable and innovative financing mechanisms to support sustainable economic and environmental models. Al Amri pointed out that areas affected by wars and conflicts should be included in efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, as part of measures to support peace and environmental justice. At the conclusion of his speech, Al Amri underlined the importance of dialogue and understanding as the best means of achieving rapprochement at a time the international community is joining hands to ensure a sustainable future for all. On the sidelines of the forum, Al Amri conferred with the President of the United Nations General Assembly. The meeting touched on ways to enhance international environmental action and highlighted the Sultanate of Oman's role in advancing the global agenda on sustainability. Al Amri also held a meeting with the Hungarian Minister of Environment. The meeting discussed bilateral and regional cooperation in the field of environment and sustainable development. The two sides spoke about preparations for the forthcoming seventh session of the United Nations Environment Assembly. Acting in cooperation with Environment Society of Oman, the Environment Authority also participated in an event on the sidelines of the forum. The event was aimed to enhance the role of youth in climate action and marine environment protection, in line with the Sustainable Development Goals, including Goal 13 on climate action, Goal 14 on Life Below Water and Goal 17 on "Partnerships for the Goals".