Colorado State Lowers Hurricane Season Expectations, But Above Average Season Still Expected
The new outlook: Colorado State University's tropical meteorology project team is forecasting 16 storms, eight of which will become hurricanes and four of which will reach Category 3 status or stronger in their latest outlook for 2025 released Wednesday. The number of tropical storms and hurricanes was reduced by one each compared to their previous outlook released in June.
The new outlook remains slightly above the 30-year average tally for both hurricanes and storms, and also near the tally of 18 storms, 11 hurricanes and five Cat 3-plus hurricanes in 2024.
The limiting factor this hurricane season: Wind shear has been more persistent than it is typically in the Caribbean. This is one of the primary reasons for the reduction in the forecast. "Shear since June 1 has been elevated by an average of 15 to 20 kt (or 17–23 mph) relative to normal across the Caribbean," according to the outlook's author, Dr. Phil Klotzbach.
The Caribbean typically hosts several of the season's tropical storms and is often a hotbed for the season's most potent hurricanes.
Strong wind shear tends to rip apart the thunderstorms that make up hurricanes, leaving them ragged and unable to grow vertically.
The outlook noted that wind shear is expected to be especially above average in July but could slacken with more favorable conditions going into August.
(MORE: For even more granular weather data tracking in your area, view your 15-minute details forecast in our Premium Pro experience.)
El Niño not forecast for this season: ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions are expected through the remainder of the season. This means that water temperatures are neither warmer nor cooler than average in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Those conditions can tip the activity in the Atlantic less or more active than average by shifting global wind patterns.
ENSO neutral conditions tend to tip the controls to the Atlantic.
The primary reason for the more active than average outlook is warmer than average water temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic. Heat in our oceans helps fuel the thunderstorms that allow tropical storms and hurricanes to form and strengthen. These water temperatures are not nearly as warm as last year, so the forecast is also for fewer storms this year.
Jonathan Belles has been a graphics meteorologist and writer for weather.com for 8 years and also assists in the production of videos for The Weather Channel en español. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.
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