After multiple rounds of renewed fighting, will the Syria truce finally last?

Yahoo

21-07-2025

The challenge now is whether the two sides can de-escalate. Numerous Bedouin tribes from across Syria mobilized to fight in Sweida.
On Friday, US envoy to Syria Tom Barrack announced that a truce had been agreed to inSyria after five days of clashes in which Israel had intervened and bombed Damascus.
The clashes were between Bedouin tribesmen and Druze, and the Syrian government had tried to intervene to prevent them, but Israel had demanded that the government leave the area, accusing it of having been involved in oppressing the Druze.
Barrack said he was grateful to Jordan for playing a leadership role in the region to help support the ceasefire. 'We are making positive steps to support a unified, stable Syria at peace with its neighbors, including our Jordanian allies.'
Of interest was Barrack's social media post on Friday in which he said that Israel's prime minister and the president of Syria had agreed to the truce. In essence, the Syrian conflict, which was made up of internal clashes, now appears to have been outsourced to Israel, with Jordanian and Turkish involvement.
Ankara and Amman are very critical of Israel's bombing of Syria, and they argue that Israel is destabilizing it. In their view, Israel is demanding that southern Syria be demilitarized, which has helped lead to a power vacuum. Into the vacuum, armed groups have emerged that are fighting each other; Israel's bombing has only made this more chaotic.
The US administration has not critiqued Israel openly. However, Al-Monitor quoted a senior Trump administration official as telling Israel, 'You can't embark on a new war every few days."
US allegedly reprimands Israel over strikes in Syria
The Israeli bombing of Damascus came three weeks after Israel also carried out strikes on Iran that led to US involvement in a ceasefire there as well. It has also come as Israel continues its strikes in Gaza and Lebanon.
The question now is whether the ceasefire in southern Syria can hold.
The Druze in Sweida have been hard-pressed by Bedouin tribesmen. In the absence of the government security forces, it appears clear that fighting would lead to more atrocities.
The Bedouin have accused the Druze of killing their kinsmen in Sweida and also kidnapping Bedouin. Druze have accused the Bedouin of crimes.
One video shows Druze men being forced to jump from an apartment balcony under gunfire. Another video appears to show Bedouin women and children killed in what may have been a mortar strike. The videos lead to a fear of worse crimes.
Barrack, who has been tasked with working with the new Syrian government, said he was 'thankful to all sides for their break from chaos and confusion as we attempt to navigate all parties to a more durable and peaceful solution in Syria.'
The challenge now is to see if the two sides can back down. Numerous Bedouin tribes from all over Syria had mobilized to fight in Sweida. The government had to deploy security forces to some areas in Syria to prevent reprisals against the Druze.
The Bedouin mobilization apparently brought together tribes that don't usually get along, seeking to defend their comrades. Similarly, the attacks on the Druze led to their kinsmen in Israel seeking to enter Syria to help their comrades.
The IDF said that forces were attacked in violent protests near the Golan fence with Syria between Friday and Saturday. This came three days after some Druze had crossed into Syria to help their community.
This conflict clearly has the capability of spilling over. Israel has tried to put down a new redline in southern Syria, basically staking a claim to a sphere of influence that appears to extend some 80 kilometers or more from the Golan border, all the way to Sweida and the outskirts of Damascus.
This is a new front for Israel, and Jerusalem appears to want to manage the conflict now in Syria as it does in southern Lebanon, Gaza, the West Bank, and other places.
Jerusalem has also set itself up for further involvement in the future. Because Israel is now a party to a ceasefire, it means that Washington will now have to deal with not only the ceasefire in Syria but also with Iran.
The Trump administration had wanted to focus on other regions of the world, but its first seven months in office have largely been consumed by the Middle East. It bombed the Houthis until it realized that the campaign had diminishing returns. Then it bombed Iran as part of Israel's strikes there. Then it got involved in brokering a ceasefire in southern Syria. It has also had to deal with Gaza, working on a ceasefire in January and then working to get American citizen Eden Alexander released.
Keeping the ceasefire will be in the interest of Washington and Damascus. The wild card is likely Israel's own calculus about what comes next.
Is it in Israel's interest to bomb Syria every few months to maintain a redline in southern Syria? Will the decision to leave a power vacuum in Syria lead to extremist groups or Iran seeking to infiltrate the area?
Many Syrian social media accounts have noted that after the Israeli strikes on the heart of Damascus, they had no hopes of peace with Israel. They said that after the fall of the Assad regime, they had entertained turning over a new leaf with Israel and considering a path to peace. There had even been rumors that Syria would join the Abraham Accords.
Now, many of these Syrians are outraged at Israel. It has also caused a deeper rift with the Druze, who are accused of being linked to the Jewish state. The aggressive stance of Jerusalem may therefore backfire.
Prior to the clashes in Sweida on July 13, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa had been in Baku. Azerbaijan is a strategic partner of Israel. It had looked like the trip might smooth the way to more engagement with Damascus, but the bombing of the Syrian capital likely harmed that.
Some Israeli officials make statements against Sharaa, referring to him by his previous nom de guerre 'Julani' and claiming Israel should target him. It's hard to see how relations can improve so long as such rhetoric continues.
At the same time, Israeli media have taken to calling the Syrian government the 'regime,' similar to how Assad's regime was widely referred to. This indicates that the government of Syria is seen as an enemy – which also makes it less likely to pave the way for peace.
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