A frugal no more: Russian threat shifts Denmark's thinking on defence spending

Irish Times

7 hours ago

When patrolling the coast of
Greenland
up near the Arctic Circle on one of
Denmark
's naval ships, the commanding officer, Jens Bach, says the only
Russians
he comes across are in fishing boats.
The bigger concern for Denmark is what might be going on closer to home in the waters of the Baltic Sea.
There have been reported instances of Russian interference, such as the jamming of navigation systems. 'I think it's something that mostly happens in the Baltic area, not that much up in the high north,' says Bach, who was speaking while on the docked naval ship in Aarhus harbour.
Nordic neighbours have recorded a rise in incidents of undersea cables being sabotaged, with Moscow viewed as the most likely culprit.
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Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago was a 'wake up call' for Denmark and Europe, says minister for defence Troels Lund Poulsen.
Back then Denmark spent about 1.5 per cent of its economic output, or gross domestic product (GDP), on defence. This year it plans to have raised defence spending to 3.2 per cent, a significant increase in a short space of time. 'We need to be able to defend ourselves by 2030 at the latest,' Lund Poulsen says.
Anxiety about the future threat Russia poses to Europe if Vladimir Putin is allowed to succeed in Ukraine has changed public attitudes.
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Denmark had always been sceptical about leaning further into the European Union and for three decades had a formal 'opt-out' of the union's common defence policy.
The clause was introduced to allay fears that closer integration would eventually lead to Danes being sent off to fight under the flag of a joint EU army.
Two thirds of voters backed a proposal to ditch the opt-out in a June 2022 referendum, meaning Copenhagen has a free hand to co-operate on plans to boost Europe's defence industry.
There was a recognition that Denmark could not go it alone and instead needed to be 'all-in on the European dimension', according to Derek Beach, a professor of political science at Aarhus University.
'It's really been remarkable how quickly that shifted after the invasion,' Beach says. 'It is quite clear something happened related to Danish attitudes to increased defence spending, due to fear of Russia,' he says.
In proportion to its population of about six million people, Denmark is one of the biggest contributors of military and financial aid to Ukraine, sending more than €9 billion to Kyiv to help it keep fighting.
It has been doing more on the home front as well. A draft calling up several thousand young men to spend up to 11 months in the military has been extended to young women as well. It is planning to deploy floating drones in the Baltic Sea to keep a closer eye on undersea cables, given they are vulnerable to hybrid attacks and sabotage.
The sight of Russian tanks streaming across Ukraine's border also prompted two of its Nordic neighbours, Finland and Sweden, to join Nato.
Denmark was one of the original members of the western military alliance and recently pushed for a tight time frame to be set on commitments to massively increase defence spending. Nato members ultimately signed up to spend five per cent of their economic output on defence and related infrastructure projects, by 2035.
It was not just a growing fear of Russia that ended Danes' reluctance about deepening EU ties. The population paid close attention to the rough time Britain had after leaving the union. 'Watching Brexit turn into a sh*t show really impacted Danish attitudes,' Beach says.
US president Donald Trump's threat to take over Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark in the Arctic, pushed Copenhagen even closer to its European allies.
One of the few centre-left heads of government in Europe, Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen has enjoyed a boost in popularity on the back of her strong support for Ukraine. 'She's very much an Iron Lady and takes a crisis very seriously,' Beach says.
Politically the government does not fit into any one neat box. It is led by the Social Democrats yet takes a very hard line on migration. It is instinctively fiscally conservative, yet ambitious on climate and the green transition and hawkish on defence spending.
Frederiksen, who has led the Social Democrats for a decade, took them into power in 2019. They improved their position in the last election in 2022, but rather than govern with a razor-thin majority, Frederiksen opted for a coalition with two smaller parties, the centre-right Liberals and the Moderates, a centrist party led by former prime minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen.
The Social Democrats' political success is in part due to a major pivot around 2015, when it started taking a tougher approach to those seeking asylum in Denmark.
Frederiksen's rightward lurch cut off oxygen to far right nationalist forces, who are threatening to unseat many mainstream governments elsewhere in Europe.
The government is in the middle of a second pivot which may prove to be as defining.
Denmark, Austria, the Netherlands and Sweden have been known as the 'frugal four', who are keen to rein in EU spending and limit the bloc's budget. The fiscally conservative group has resisted calls for the 27 member states to raise money by borrowing funds together.
Cash-strapped southern and eastern states favour common borrowing because the EU would be able to command better loan repayment terms than they would individually. Those with healthier budgets, like the frugals, Germany and Ireland, are nervous about the proposal leading to unchecked EU spending.
In a notable shift, Frederiksen has said Denmark will no longer be among the 'frugal' camp, in the coming negotiations about the size and shape of the next EU budget. This change of heart may stretch to support for some type of common borrowing, on the condition the money raised was put towards defence.
Europe had made a 'grave mistake' by taking its security for granted, Frederiksen said in a speech in Aarhus in recent days. 'For too long we spent too little and we must never repeat that again. We need to rearm,' she said.
Berlin has changed its thinking too. Conservative chancellor Friedrich Merz's new German government has thrown open the door to a major expansion in the amount it spends on its military, after decades of fiscal restraint.
Minister for European affairs Marie Bjerre says Denmark understood the 'status quo' would not cut in when it came to the next EU budget, which is always the product of a contentious fight between Brussels and national governments.
'It is not the Danish government policy that the budget should be bigger or that we should have common debt,' she says. 'However, I think we have said quite clearly we do not consider ourselves part of the Frugal Four, meaning that we are not rejecting anything beforehand. We will go into these discussions with an open mind, because we are in crucial times for Europe.'