Asteroid 2024 YR4 could now hit moon instead of Earth - but what does it mean for our planet?

ITV News

5 days ago

The asteroid known as 2024 YR4 may no longer be on course to hit Earth, but it's still keeping scientists curious.
Estimated to be around 60 metres in diameter, the hunk of rock is currently beyond the reach of telescopes, as it orbits around the sun.
But its lack of visibility is raising eyebrows, as the asteroid may have a new destination set in its sights - the moon.
When did scientists first become aware of YR4?
YR4 was first discovered at the end of last year, with fears it could hit our planet by December 22, 2032.
Even through astronomical tools, the asteroid appears as small as a speck of light, but in reality, it is likely to be around 60 metres (200 feet) in diameter, according to observations made in March by the James Webb Space Telescope.
The chances of the asteroid making contact with our planet have since changed with every new observation.
In February of this year, it peaked at 3.1%, making it the riskiest asteroid ever observed.
Both ground and space-based telescopes played a crucial role in establishing the asteroid's size and orbit.
Precise measurements allowed researchers to eventually rule out a collision with Earth.
What do the latest observations of the YR4 reveal?
The matter has since unfortunately disappeared from scientists' view; however, the latest observations (from June) have improved astronomers' knowledge of where it will be in seven years by almost 20%, according to Nasa.
The data reveals that even with avoiding direct contact with Earth, YR4 could still potentially pose a threat if it collides with the moon in late 2032.
On impact, we could see fine-grained lunar material making its way towards Earth.
Our planet won't suffer any significant physical danger, but there is a chance that any astronauts or infrastructure on the moon's surface could be at risk.
Satellites that orbit the Earth and any missions close to our planet could also be in the pathway of the debris.
What could we see from Earth?
Initial research suggests the impact is most likely to occur on the near side of the moon - the side we can see from Earth.
The collision between the asteroid and the moon could create a bright flash which would be visible to the naked eye for several seconds, according to Dr Paul Wiegert, a professor of astronomy and physics at Western University in London, Ontario, who spoke to CNN.
How could this asteroid impact how astronauts observe future threats?
Astronomers believe this asteroid could redefine what kind of threats they pay attention to, expanding their focus to include matter that could crash into the moon as well as the Earth.
'We're starting to realise that maybe we need to extend that shield a little bit further,' said Wiegert.
'We now have things worth protecting that are a bit further away from Earth, so our vision is hopefully expanding a little bit to encompass that.'
For now, scientists are assessing how problematic the YR4's lunar impact could be and what can be done to mitigate it.