2025-26 NBA Rookie of the Year odds: Can anyone challenge Cooper Flagg?
The first round of the NBA Draft went mostly according to script early on, with Cooper Flagg getting drafted first by Dallas and Dylan Harper going second to San Antonio. The odds for NBA Rookie of the Year were already out before the draft, and the lack of major surprises in the first few picks meant the odds didn't shift much once the players got assigned to their teams. Flagg is, of course, the clear favorite to win the award.
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Flagg is -225 to win Rookie of the Year on BetMGM, showing just how obvious of a pick he appears to be at this time. The ranking of the remaining players is more interesting. The top contenders to jump Flagg are not listed in draft position order.
Sixth pick Tre Johnson is second in the odds at +700. Johnson steps into a Washington Wizards team where playing time and shots should, in theory, be available. He shot 39.7 percent from 3-point range in his one college season at Texas, so it's reasonable to think Johnson's game could translate into immediate production.
Ace Bailey, who went fifth to the Utah Jazz, steps into a similar situation. Bailey was a polarizing prospect, with projections ranging from third to outside the top 10, but the fact that he goes to Utah and has a game built around volume-shooting gives him a reasonable chance to put up the counting numbers needed to contend for Rookie of the Year. Bailey is third in the odds at +800.
Bailey's Rutgers teammate Harper went second but is fourth in the odds list. Harper joins a Spurs team that has more established players and realistic playoff ambitions for the coming season. A roster with Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell and Stephon Castle won't be as easy to break into for significant minutes or shots, even for a player of Harper's talent. The Spurs are home to the last two Rookie of the Year winners in Wembanyama and Castle.
Harper could make it three in a row for San Antonio, which would be an NBA first. While no team has ever had three straight Rookie of the Year winners, San Antonio's consecutive winners made it six times the same team has had a player win the award two years in a row.
After those top four, there's a big dropoff. VJ Edgecombe (third pick to Philadelphia) and Kon Knueppel (fourth pick to Charlotte) are both +2500.
It's clear that Flagg is expected to win this award. It was obvious he was going to be the first pick for many months. Top picks don't always win Rookie of the Year, but Flagg is not your ordinary No. 1 pick. Wembanyama, another locked-in No. 1 well before the draft, won it, and fellow first pick Paolo Banchero did the year before. However, those were the only two out of the last seven Rookie of the Year winners. Since 2001, nine No. 1 overall picks have won Rookie of the Year.
Betting/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo of Cooper Flagg: Bryan Bedder / Getty Images for Dave & Busters)
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