Latest tech employment data elicits more questions, while answer clarity remains elusive, CompTIA analysis finds
DOWNERS GROVE, Ill., Aug. 1, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — New data on tech hiring activity continues to offer ambiguous signals on the direction of the job market, according to analysis by CompTIA, the leading global provider of vendor-neutral information technology (IT) training and certifications.
Tech occupation employment, which encompasses companies in all industry sectors, increased by an estimated net new 54,000 workers in July, CompTIA analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) #JobsReport data reveals.1 The unemployment rate for tech occupations was 2.9% in July, up slightly from June's 2.8% rate. An estimated 6.6 million people are employed in tech occupations.
Tech sector companies reduced staffing last month by a net 10,314 positions across all job role types.2 Staffing reductions were concentrated in three primary sector categories – IT and custom software services, cloud infrastructure and telecommunications. Tech manufacturing was unchanged. Complicating the picture are the now routine backward revisions to employment data due to factors often outside the control of the BLS.
'In an environment where uncertainty is the norm, the latest tech employment data is a welcome mix of some reasonably positive measures, and then of course, some lagging measures,' said Tim Herbert, chief research officer, CompTIA.
Active employer job listings for tech positions totaled 440,083 in July, with 44% of the total (193,496) newly added last month, according to CompTIA analysis of Lightcast job posting data.3 Compared to June, active tech job listings fell 3% and new job listings were off 8%.
Occupations in highest demand included software developers and engineers, systems engineers and architects, tech support specialists, cybersecurity engineers and architects and network engineers and architects. Listings for artificial intelligence (AI) job roles, such as AI architects, were roughly flat compared to the prior month. CompTIA's AI Hiring Index indicates relatively higher growth in hiring demand for the broad range of positions where employers require some type of AI skill to perform effectively in the job role.
On a geographic basis, California, Texas and Virginia has the most job postings for tech positions, while South Carolina, Pennsylvania and Connecticut recorded modest month-over-month increases in tech occupation openings. Washington, New York, Dallas, Atlanta and Chicago were the top five metro markets by volume of tech job postings.
The 'CompTIA Tech Jobs Report' is available at https://www.comptia.org/en-us/resources/research/tech-jobs-report/.
About CompTIA CompTIA Inc. is the leading global provider of vendor-neutral information technology (IT) training and certifications. CompTIA unlocks potential in millions of aspiring technology professionals and careers changers. Working in partnership with thousands of academic institutions and training providers, CompTIA helps students build career-ready skills through best-in-class learning solutions, industry-recognized certifications and career resources. Learn more at https://www.comptia.org/.
Media ContactSteven OstrowskiCompTIAsostrowski@comptia.org+1 630.678.8468
1 Monthly occupation level data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics tends to experience higher levels of variance and volatility.2 Labor market data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and employer job postings from Lightcast may be subject to backward revisions.3 Active job postings include new postings added by employers in the latest month and open postings carried over from previous months.
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Manufacturing PMI® at 48%; July 2025 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®
New Orders and Backlogs Contracting; Production Growing and Employment Contracting; Supplier Deliveries Faster; Raw Materials Inventories Contracting; Customers' Inventories Too Low; Prices Increasing; Exports and Imports Contracting TEMPE, Ariz., Aug. 1, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in July for the fifth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: 'The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48 percent in July, a 1-percentage point decrease compared to the 49 percent recorded in June. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 63rd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the sixth month in a row following a three-month period of expansion; the figure of 47.1 percent is 0.7 percentage point higher than the 46.4 percent recorded in June. The July reading of the Production Index (51.4 percent) is 1.1 percentage points higher than June's figure of 50.3 percent. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or 'increasing') territory, registering 64.8 percent, down 4.9 percentage points compared to the reading of 69.7 percent reported in June. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 46.8 percent, up 2.5 percentage points compared to the 44.3 percent recorded in June. The Employment Index registered 43.4 percent, down 1.6 percentage points from June's figure of 45 percent. 'The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated faster delivery performance after seven consecutive months in expansion (or 'slower') territory. The reading of 49.3 percent is down 4.9 percentage points from the 54.2 percent recorded in June. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) The Inventories Index registered 48.9 percent, down 0.3 percentage point compared to June's reading of 49.2 percent. 'The New Export Orders Index reading of 46.1 percent is 0.2 percentage point lower than the reading of 46.3 percent registered in June. The Imports Index registered 47.6 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than June's reading of 47.4 percent.' Spence continues, 'In July, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted at a faster rate, with declines in the Supplier Deliveries and Employment Indexes contributing as the biggest factors in the 1-percentage point loss of the Manufacturing PMI®. 'The demand indicators improved, with the New Orders and Backlog of Orders indexes contracting at slower rates, while the Customers' Inventories and New Export Orders indexes contracted at slightly faster rates. A 'too low' status for the Customers' Inventories Index is usually considered positive for future production. 'Regarding output, the Production Index increased month over month to move further into expansion territory, however; the Employment Index dropped further into contraction as panelists indicated that managing head count is still the norm at their companies, as opposed to hiring. The mixed indicators in output suggest companies still being cautious in their hiring even with an increase in production. 'Finally, inputs (defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports), on net, declined further into contraction territory. The Inventories Index moved marginally further into contraction territory after expanding in April, as companies work to reduce or adjust inventory to better align with demand. The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated faster deliveries as supply chain performance improved and sluggish demand continued. Prices continued to increase, but at a slower rate. The Imports Index remained in contraction but moved upward slightly. 'Looking at the manufacturing economy, 79 percent of the sector's gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in July, up from 46 percent in June. Notably, 31 percent of GDP is strongly contracting (registering a composite PMI® of 45 percent or lower), up from 25 percent in June. The share of sector GDP with a PMI® at or below 45 percent is a good metric to gauge overall manufacturing weakness. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, none expanded in July, compared to four in June,' says Spence. The seven manufacturing industries reporting growth in July — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Textile Mills; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Furniture & Related Products; and Primary Metals. The 10 industries reporting contraction in July — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; Wood Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING 'Fairly flat quarter over quarter, but with us being in the safety and security sector (and with U.S. Customs and Border Protection as a customer), the recent bill that passed should result in an increase in business in the coming months.' [Computer & Electronic Products] 'Sales continue at unprecedented growth, driven by data-center construction. Customers and the sales team continue to demand lower pricing, which drives down gross margins in face of input price increases, primarily from aluminum imports.' [Chemical Products] 'These tariff wars are beginning to wear us out. It's been very difficult to forecast what we will pay in duties and calculate any cost savings we've had this year. Also, tariffs have disrupted our customs import bond. There is zero clarity about the future, and it's been a difficult few months trying to figure out where everything is going to land and the impact on our business. So far, tremendous and unexpected costs have been incurred.' [Apparel, Leather & Allied Products] 'Currently, higher interest rates still depress the construction industry for new construction projects. Tariff policies are uncertain, which slows down (1) our investment in new projects, (2) component sourcing for new products, (3) blanket orders and (4) replenishment of large inventory quantities. Instead, we're working to shift suppliers to lower political risk countries or develop domestic sources. We are impacted by the higher tariffs on costs of raw materials and components both sourced domestically and from overseas, and we expect expenses will be higher in the third and fourth quarters as we consume the inventory received with new and higher tariffs or update costs from domestic sources in the second quarter.' [Machinery] 'Sales softening more than usual during the summer. Negotiations with non-U.S. manufacturers are strained as we are reluctant to issue POs for deliveries three or more months into the future with prices that include current tariffs.' [Fabricated Metal Products] 'In the health-care world we continue with 'business as normal,' but we are increasingly searching and assessing geopolitical risk mitigation options.' [Miscellaneous Manufacturing] 'Tariffs are causing complete uncertainty around sourcing strategies. A sit-and-wait game for now.' [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components] 'Sales are about on par with 2024, but nowhere near budget forecast. Tariff concerns seem to be growing as the year progresses.' [Nonmetallic Mineral Products] 'Business is steady, with solid bookings and backlog. Still uncertainty about tariffs and associated inflation.' [Furniture & Related Products] 'Energy capacity, specifically in the grid operated by PJM Interconnection, continues to be one of the major concerns for business continuity and growth in this region. The procurement of power and rising natural gas prices in this region due to past green energy policies, coupled with future projected allocations for artificial intelligence data centers, adds additional stress to the PJM system.' [Primary Metals] 'Cautiously stable. Tariff impacts are still being monitored. Some increases have been implemented while monitoring other products.' [Transportation Equipment] MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE July 2025 Index SeriesIndex Jul SeriesIndex Jun Percentage Point Change Direction Rate of Change Trend* (Months) Manufacturing PMI® 48.0 49.0 -1.0 Contracting Faster 5 New Orders 47.1 46.4 +0.7 Contracting Slower 6 Production 51.4 50.3 +1.1 Growing Faster 2 Employment 43.4 45.0 -1.6 Contracting Faster 6 Supplier Deliveries 49.3 54.2 -4.9 Faster From Slower 1 Inventories 48.9 49.2 -0.3 Contracting Faster 3 Customers' Inventories 45.7 46.7 -1.0 Too Low Faster 10 Prices 64.8 69.7 -4.9 Increasing Slower 10 Backlog of Orders 46.8 44.3 +2.5 Contracting Slower 34 New Export Orders 46.1 46.3 -0.2 Contracting Faster 5 Imports 47.6 47.4 +0.2 Contracting Slower 4 OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Slower 63 Manufacturing Sector Contracting Faster 5 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes. *Number of months moving in current direction. COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY Commodities Up in PriceAluminum (20); Aluminum Products; Brass Products; Copper; Copper Products; Corrugated Boxes (5); Electrical Components (6); Electronic Components (6); Fabricated Metal Components; Freight; Polypropylene; Steel (6); Steel — Stainless (5); Steel Products (5); and Wire Products. Commodities Down in PriceCorn; Natural Gas; Ocean Freight; and Soybean Meal. Commodities in Short SupplyElectrical Components, Electronic Components (5); and Rare Earth Magnets. Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item. JULY 2025 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES Manufacturing PMI® The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in July for the fifth consecutive month after two months of expansion preceded by 26 months of contraction. 'The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48 percent, 1 percentage point lower compared to the 49 percent reported in June. Of the five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI®, only one (Production) is in expansion territory, down from two in June. The slowing of supplier deliveries in previous months reversed course, with a 4.9-percentage point index decrease indicating a drawdown of manufacturing inventories and easing port congestion. The Employment Index decreased and it remained with New Orders in contraction territory. None of the six biggest manufacturing industries registered growth in July,' says Spence. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting. A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the July Manufacturing PMI® indicates the overall economy grew for the 63rd straight month after contracting in April 2020. 'The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the July reading (48 percent) corresponds to a change of plus-1.6 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,' says Spence. THE LAST 12 MONTHS Month Manufacturing PMI® Month Manufacturing PMI® Jul 2025 48.0 Jan 2025 50.9 Jun 2025 49.0 Dec 2024 49.2 May 2025 48.5 Nov 2024 48.4 Apr 2025 48.7 Oct 2024 46.9 Mar 2025 49.0 Sep 2024 47.5 Feb 2025 50.3 Aug 2024 47.5 Average for 12 months – 48.7 High – 50.9 Low – 46.9 New OrdersISM®'s New Orders Index contracted in July for the sixth consecutive month after three consecutive months of expansion, registering 47.1 percent, an increase of 0.7 percentage point compared to June's figure of 46.4 percent. This reading is below the 12-month moving average (48.3 percent) for the New Orders Index, which hasn't indicated consistent growth since a 24-month streak of expansion ended in May 2022. 'Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, none reported increased new orders. Panelists noted continued weak demand, with a 1-to-1.4 ratio of positive comments to those expressing concern about near-term demand. Overall, new orders continue to slow amid tariff uncertainty; which party will pay tariff costs is still the prime issue in negotiations between buyers and sellers,' says Spence. A New Orders Index above 52.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau's series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars). The four manufacturing industries that reported growth in new orders in July are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The eight industries reporting a decline in new orders in June, in order, are: Paper Products; Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. Six industries reported no change in new orders in July. New Orders %Higher %Same %Lower Net Index Jul 2025 18.8 55.3 25.9 -7.1 47.1 Jun 2025 20.5 52.2 27.3 -6.8 46.4 May 2025 25.0 48.1 26.9 -1.9 47.6 Apr 2025 28.1 45.2 26.7 +1.4 47.2 ProductionThe Production Index continued in expansion territory for the second consecutive month in July, registering 51.4 percent, 1.1 percentage points higher than the June reading of 50.3 percent. Prior to the readings of expansion in January and February, the index was in contraction territory for eight consecutive months, with the previous reading above 50 percent in April 2024 (50.7 percent). Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, two (Petroleum & Coal Products; and Transportation Equipment) reported increased production. 'Production levels in July, while improved, remain fragile amid continuing softness in new orders. Panelists had a 1-to-1.2 ratio of positive to negative comments regarding output,' says Spence. An index above 52.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board's Industrial Production figures. The seven industries reporting growth in production during the month of July — in the following order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Transportation Equipment. The six industries reporting a decrease in production in July, in order, are: Paper Products; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Chemical Products. Production %Higher %Same %Lower Net Index Jul 2025 20.1 60.7 19.2 +0.9 51.4 Jun 2025 20.7 60.6 18.7 +2.0 50.3 May 2025 19.1 56.3 24.6 -5.5 45.4 Apr 2025 19.8 56.0 24.2 -4.4 44.0 EmploymentISM®'s Employment Index registered 43.4 percent in July, 1.6 percentage points lower than June's reading of 45 percent. 'The index posted its sixth consecutive month of contraction after expanding in January, with seven straight months of contraction before that. Since May 2022, the Employment Index has contracted in 32 of 39 months. Of the six big manufacturing sectors, none reported expanded employment in July. For every comment on hiring, there were two on reducing head counts — a fairly wide ratio, historically speaking — reflecting companies' continuing focus on accelerating staff reductions due to uncertain near- to mid-term demand. Layoffs were the primary measure, an indication that staff shrinking continues to be urgent,' says Spence. An Employment Index above 50.3 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment. Of the 18 manufacturing industries, three reported employment growth in July: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Plastics & Rubber Products. The 11 industries reporting a decrease in employment in July, in the following order, are: Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment. Employment %Higher %Same %Lower Net Index Jul 2025 12.6 62.4 25.0 -12.4 43.4 Jun 2025 10.4 72.1 17.5 -7.1 45.0 May 2025 14.1 68.2 17.7 -3.6 46.8 Apr 2025 13.1 70.7 16.2 -3.1 46.5 Supplier Deliveries†Delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was faster in July after seven months of slowing, with the Supplier Deliveries Index registering 49.3 percent, a 4.9-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 54.2 percent reported in June. Of the six big industries, two (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products) reported slower supplier deliveries in July. 'The findings in July suggest that supply chain performance is improving as demand is slipping downward,' says Spence. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries. The nine manufacturing industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in July — in the following order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. The four industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in July are: Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; and Machinery. Supplier Deliveries %Slower %Same %Faster Net Index Jul 2025 8.7 81.1 10.2 -1.5 49.3 Jun 2025 14.7 79.0 6.3 +8.4 54.2 May 2025 19.1 73.9 7.0 +12.1 56.1 Apr 2025 16.6 77.2 6.2 +10.4 55.2 InventoriesThe Inventories Index registered 48.9 percent in July, down 0.3 percentage point compared to the reading of 49.2 percent in June. 'Of the six big industries, only one (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) expanded in July,' says Spence. An Inventories Index greater than 44.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars). Of 18 manufacturing industries, the 10 reporting higher inventories in July — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The five industries reporting lower inventories in July are: Wood Products; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery. Inventories %Higher %Same %Lower Net Index Jul 2025 15.2 67.2 17.6 -2.4 48.9 Jun 2025 15.6 64.9 19.5 -3.9 49.2 May 2025 15.6 63.2 21.2 -5.6 46.7 Apr 2025 20.8 59.2 20.0 +0.8 50.8 Customers' Inventories†ISM®'s Customers' Inventories Index registered a reading of 45.7 percent in July, a decrease of 1 percentage point compared to the reading of 46.7 percent in June. 'Customers' inventory levels in July continued to contract and took a step away from 'about right' territory,' says Spence. (For more information about the Customers' Inventories Index, see the 'Data and Method of Presentation' section below.) The three industries reporting customers' inventories as too high in July are: Wood Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Transportation Equipment. The 11 industries reporting customers' inventories as too low in July, in order, are: Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery. Customers' Inventories % Reporting %Too High %About Right %TooLow Net Index Jul 2025 71 10.5 70.3 19.2 -8.7 45.7 Jun 2025 72 14.1 65.2 20.7 -6.6 46.7 May 2025 69 9.9 69.2 20.9 -11.0 44.5 Apr 2025 76 11.1 70.2 18.7 -7.6 46.2 Prices†The ISM® Prices Index registered 64.8 percent in July, decreasing 4.9 percentage points compared to the June reading of 69.7 percent, indicating raw materials prices increased for the 10th straight month (at a slower rate) after a decrease in September. The Prices Index has increased 9.9 percentage points over the past six months. In the last five months, the index reached its highest levels since June 2022, when it registered 78.5 percent. All of the six largest manufacturing industries — Machinery; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Transportation Equipment, in that order — reported price increases in July. 'The Prices Index reading continues to be driven by increases in steel and aluminum prices that impact the entire value chain, as well as tariffs applied to many imported goods. Higher prices were reported by 35.4 percent of respondents in July, down substantially from 45.6 percent in June. The share of respondents reporting higher prices had consistently increased from November 2024 (12.2 percent) to April (49.2 percent), which was the highest level since June 2022 (65.2 percent),' says Spence. A Prices Index above 52.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials. In July, the 16 industries that reported paying increased prices for raw materials, in order, are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Wood Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; and Transportation Equipment. No industries reported paying decreased prices for raw materials in July. Prices %Higher %Same %Lower Net Index Jul 2025 35.4 58.8 5.8 +29.6 64.8 Jun 2025 45.6 48.1 6.3 +39.3 69.7 May 2025 45.1 48.5 6.4 +38.7 69.4 Apr 2025 49.2 41.1 9.7 +39.5 69.8 Backlog of Orders†ISM®'s Backlog of Orders Index registered 46.8 percent, an increase of 2.5 percentage points compared to the June reading of 44.3 percent, indicating order backlogs contracted for the 34th consecutive month after a 27-month period of expansion that ended September 2022. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, only Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products reported expansion in order backlogs in July. 'Continued contraction in both the New Orders and Backlog of Orders indexes means that trade issues and other geopolitical tensions are still at play. Significant improvement shouldn't be expected until those issues begin to recede,' says Spence. Of the 18 manufacturing industries, the three that reported growth in order backlogs in July are: Furniture & Related Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The eight industries reporting lower backlogs in July — in the following order — are: Paper Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Wood Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products. Seven industries reported no change in order backlogs. Backlog of Orders % Reporting %Higher %Same %Lower Net Index Jul 2025 89 18.3 56.9 24.8 -6.5 46.8 Jun 2025 91 14.9 58.7 26.4 -11.5 44.3 May 2025 92 15.8 62.6 21.6 -5.8 47.1 Apr 2025 92 15.1 57.2 27.7 -12.6 43.7 New Export Orders†ISM®'s New Export Orders Index contracted in July, registering 46.1 percent, down 0.2 percentage point from June's reading of 46.3 percent. 'Export orders contracted for the fifth consecutive month after growing in January and February. This brief period of expansion followed an 'unchanged' status (a reading of 50 percent), preceded by six straight months of contraction. The continued contraction of new export orders could be indicative of ongoing trade friction and dampened demand,' says Spence. Of the 18 manufacturing industries, the only industry reporting growth in new export orders in July is Furniture & Related Products. The eight industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in July — in the following order — are: Paper Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Machinery. Eight industries reported no change in new export orders in July. New Export Orders % Reporting %Higher %Same %Lower Net Index Jul 2025 71 7.5 77.2 15.3 -7.8 46.1 Jun 2025 75 12.1 68.3 19.6 -7.5 46.3 May 2025 73 11.8 56.5 31.7 -19.9 40.1 Apr 2025 74 8.7 68.8 22.5 -13.8 43.1 Imports†ISM®'s Imports Index remained in contraction for the fourth month in July after expanding for three straight months. The July figure of 47.6 percent is an increase of 0.2 percentage point over the reading of 47.4 percent in June. 'Imports are contracting, though at a slower rate. The need to maintain import levels from previous months is lower, due in large part to slackening demand and tariff pricing,' says Spence. The five industries reporting an increase in import volumes in July are: Textile Mills; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Fabricated Metal Products. The six industries that reported lower volumes of imports in July — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; and Machinery. Seven industries reported no change in imports in July. Imports % Reporting %Higher %Same %Lower Net Index Jul 2025 86 13.3 68.5 18.2 -4.9 47.6 Jun 2025 86 15.3 64.2 20.5 -5.2 47.4 May 2025 85 13.2 53.3 33.5 -20.3 39.9 Apr 2025 82 15.4 63.4 21.2 -5.8 47.1 †The Supplier Deliveries, Customers' Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments. Buying PolicyThe average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in July was 173 days, a decrease of two days compared to June. The average lead time in July for Production Materials was 85 days, the same as in June. The average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies was 44 days, a decrease of four days compared to June. Percent Reporting Capital Expenditures Hand-to- Mouth 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 6 Months 1 Year+ Average Days Jul 2025 16 4 10 15 26 29 173 Jun 2025 17 3 9 13 29 29 175 May 2025 18 2 9 14 30 27 171 Apr 2025 16 4 11 14 28 27 169 Percent Reporting Production Materials Hand-to- Mouth 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 6 Months 1 Year+ Average Days Jul 2025 9 28 22 26 8 7 85 Jun 2025 9 22 28 26 9 6 85 May 2025 8 24 30 24 9 5 81 Apr 2025 10 24 25 26 9 6 84 Percent Reporting MRO Supplies Hand-to- Mouth 30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 6 Months 1 Year+ Average Days Jul 2025 31 35 17 12 4 1 44 Jun 2025 32 33 17 11 5 2 48 May 2025 31 35 16 10 7 1 47 Apr 2025 31 33 18 12 5 1 46 About This ReportDO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of July 2025. The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making. Data and Method of PresentationThe Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. The composition of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is stratified according to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) and each of the following NAICS-based industries' contribution to gross domestic product (GDP): Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys and office supplies). The data is weighted based on each industry's contribution to GDP. According to BEA estimates (the average of the fourth quarter 2023 GDP estimate and the GDP estimates for first, second, and third quarter 2024, as released on December 19, 2024), the six largest manufacturing industries are: Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; and Petroleum & Coal Products. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For nine indicators (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Employment, and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. For Customers' Inventories, respondents report their assessment of their customers' stock levels of respondent companies' products this month (rather than last month): too high, about right, and too low. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive). The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (Manufacturing PMI®, New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The Manufacturing PMI® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes with equal weights: New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Production (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted), Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories (seasonally adjusted). Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A Manufacturing PMI® reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 42.3 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 42.3 percent is indicative of the extent of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM® has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis. For the Customers' Inventories Index, numerically, a reading: above 50 percent is 'too high,' equal to 50 percent is 'about right,' and below 50 percent is 'too low.' However, in practice and in the context of other data, customers' inventories may be considered to be 'about right' if the diffusion index is between 52 percent (the high side of about right) and 48 percent (the low side of about right). The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® survey is sent out to Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to report on information for the current month for U.S. operations only. ISM® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release on the first business day of the following month. The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease. Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month's lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Capital Expenditures; Production Materials; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted. ISM ROB ContentThe Institute for Supply Management® ('ISM') Report On Business® (both Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing) ('ISM ROB') contains information, text, files, images, video, sounds, musical works, works of authorship, applications, and any other materials or content (collectively, 'Content') of ISM ('ISM ROB Content'). ISM ROB Content is protected by copyright, trademark, trade secret, and other laws, and as between you and ISM, ISM owns and retains all rights in the ISM ROB Content. ISM hereby grants you a limited, revocable, nonsublicensable license to access and display on your individual device the ISM ROB Content (excluding any software code) solely for your personal, non-commercial use. The ISM ROB Content shall also contain Content of users and other ISM licensors. Except as provided herein or as explicitly allowed in writing by ISM, you shall not copy, download, stream, capture, reproduce, duplicate, archive, upload, modify, translate, publish, broadcast, transmit, retransmit, distribute, perform, display, sell, or otherwise use any ISM ROB Content. Except as explicitly and expressly permitted by ISM, you are strictly prohibited from creating works or materials (including but not limited to tables, charts, data streams, time-series variables, fonts, icons, link buttons, wallpaper, desktop themes, online postcards, montages, mashups and similar videos, greeting cards, and unlicensed merchandise) that derive from or are based on the ISM ROB Content. This prohibition applies regardless of whether the derivative works or materials are sold, bartered, or given away. You shall not either directly or through the use of any device, software, internet site, web-based service, or other means remove, alter, bypass, avoid, interfere with, or circumvent any copyright, trademark, or other proprietary notices marked on the Content or any digital rights management mechanism, device, or other content protection or access control measure associated with the Content including geo-filtering mechanisms. Without prior written authorization from ISM, you shall not build a business utilizing the Content, whether or not for profit. You shall not create, recreate, distribute, incorporate in other work, or advertise an index of any portion of the Content unless you receive prior written authorization from ISM. Requests for permission to reproduce or distribute ISM ROB Content can be made by contacting in writing at: ISM Research, Institute for Supply Management, 309 West Elliot Road, Suite 113, Tempe, Arizona 85284-1556, or by emailing kcahill@ Subject: Content Request. ISM shall not have any liability, duty, or obligation for or relating to the ISM ROB Content or other information contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in providing any ISM ROB Content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall ISM be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use of the ISM ROB. Report On Business®, PMI®, Manufacturing PMI®, Services PMI®, Hospital PMI®, and NMI® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management®. Institute for Supply Management® and ISM® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management, Inc. About Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) is the first and leading not-for-profit professional supply management organization worldwide. Its community of more than 50,000 in more than 100 countries around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 by practitioners, ISM is committed to advancing the strategy and practice of integrated, end-to-end supply chain management through leading edge data-driven resources, community, and education to empower individuals, create organizational value and to drive competitive advantage. ISM's vision is to foster a prosperous, sustainable world. ISM empowers and leads the profession through the ISM® Report On Business®, its highly regarded certification and training programs, corporate services, events and assessments. The ISM® Report On Business®, Manufacturing, Services, and Hospital are three of the most reliable economic indicators available, providing guidance to supply management professionals, economists, analysts, and government and business leaders. For more information, please visit: The full text version of the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is posted on ISM®'s website at on the first business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET. The one exception is in January when the report is released on the second business day of the month. The next Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® featuring August 2025 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday, September 2, 2025. *Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed. Contact: Kristina Cahill Report On Business® Analyst ISM®, ROB/Research Manager Tempe, Arizona +1 480.455.5910 Email: kcahill@
The Star
16 hours ago
- The Star
Trump fires US labor official over data and gets earlier than expected chance to reshape Fed
WASHINGTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) -President Donald Trump on Friday fired a top Labor Department official on the heels of a market-shocking weak scorecard of the U.S. job market, accusing her without evidence of manipulating the figures and adding to already growing concerns about the quality of economic data published by the federal government. In a second surprise economic policy development, the door for Trump to make an imprint on a Federal Reserve with which he clashes almost daily for not lowering interest rates opened much earlier than anticipated when Fed Governor Adriana Kugler unexpectedly announced her resignation on Friday afternoon. The two developments further rattled a stock market already reeling from his latest barrage of tariff announcements and the weak jobs data. The benchmark S&P 500 Index sank 1.6% in its largest daily drop in more than two months. Trump accused Erika McEntarfer, appointed by former President Joe Biden, of faking the jobs numbers. There is no evidence to back Trump's claims of data manipulation by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the statistical agency that compiles the closely watched employment report as well as consumer and producer price data. A representative for the BLS did not respond to a request for comment. Friday began with BLS reporting the U.S. economy created only 73,000 jobs in July, but more stunning were net downward revisions showing 258,000 fewer jobs had been created in May and June than previously reported. "We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified," Trump said in a post on Truth Social. DATA CONCERNS A Trump administration official who requested anonymity said that while all economic data is noisy, the White House has been dissatisfied with how large the revisions have been in the recent data and issues with lower survey responses. The problem started during COVID and has not been addressed in the years since. "There are these underlying problems that have been festering here for years now that have not been rectified," the person said. "The markets and companies and the government need accurate data, and like, we just weren't getting that," the official said. The BLS has already reduced the sample collection for consumer price data as well as the producer price report, citing resource constraints. The government surveys about 121,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 631,000 individual worksites for the employment report. The response rate has declined from 80.3% in October 2020 to about 67.1% in July, BLS data shows. A Reuters poll last month found 89 of 100 top policy experts had at least some worries about the quality of U.S. economic data, with most also concerned that authorities are not addressing the issue urgently enough. In addition to the concerns over job market data, headcount reductions at BLS have resulted in it scaling back the scope of data collection for the Consumer Price Index, one of the most important gauges of U.S. inflation, watched by investors and policymakers worldwide. Trump's move fed into concerns that politics may influence data collection and publication. "Politicizing economic statistics is a self-defeating act," said Michael Madowitz, principal economist at the Roosevelt Institute's Roosevelt Forward. "Credibility is far easier to lose than rebuild, and the credibility of America's economic data is the foundation on which we've built the strongest economy in the world. Blinding the public about the state of the economy has a long track record, and it never ends well." FED CHANGE SOONER THAN EXPECTED Meanwhile, Kugler's surprise decision to leave the Fed at the end of next week presents Trump an earlier-than-expected opportunity to install a potential successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell on the central bank's Board of Governors. Trump has threatened to fire Powell repeatedly because the Fed chief has overseen a policymaking body that has not cut interest rates as Trump has demanded. Powell's term expires next May, although he could remain on the Fed board until January 31, 2028, if he chooses. Trump will now get to select a Fed governor to replace Kugler and finish out her term, which expires on January 31, 2026. A governor filling an unexpired term may then be reappointed to a full 14-year term. Some speculation has centered on the idea Trump might pick a potential future chair to fill that slot as a holding place. Leading candidates for the next Fed chair include Trump economic adviser Kevin Hassett, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and Fed Governor Chris Waller, a Trump appointee who this week dissented with the central bank's decision to keep rates on hold, saying he preferred to start lowering them now. Trump, as he was leaving the White House to spend the weekend at his Bedminster, New Jersey, estate, said he was happy to have the open slot to fill. "I would not read any political motivation into what [Kugler is] doing, although the consequence of what she's doing is she's calling Trump's bluff,"said Derek Tang, an analyst at LH Meyer, a research firm. "She's putting the ball in his court and saying, look, you're putting so much pressure on the Fed, and you want some control over nominees, well, here's a slot." (Additional reporting by Jasper Ward and Trevor Hunnicutt; Writing by Daniel Burns; Editing by Chris Reese and Nia Williams and Anna Driver)
Malay Mail
20 hours ago
- Malay Mail
Trump orders firing of US official as cracks emerge in jobs market
WASHINGTON, Aug 2 — President Donald Trump said Friday he has ordered the firing of a key economic official, accusing her of manipulating employment data for political reasons after a new report showed cracks in the US jobs market. US job growth missed expectations in July, Labor Department data showed, and revisions to hiring figures in recent months brought them to the weakest levels since the Covid-19 pandemic. Without providing evidence, Trump lashed out at the department's commissioner of labor statistics, writing on social media that the jobs numbers 'were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad.' In a separate post on his Truth Social platform, he charged that Commissioner Erika McEntarfer had 'faked' jobs data to boost Democrats' chances of victory in the recent presidential election. 'McEntarfer said there were only 73,000 Jobs added (a shock!) but, more importantly, that a major mistake was made by them, 258,000 Jobs downward, in the prior two months,' Trump said, referring to latest data for July. 'Similar things happened in the first part of the year, always to the negative,' Trump said, insisting that the world's biggest economy was 'booming' under his leadership. He later told reporters 'we need people that we can trust,' accusing the economic official of inflating hiring figures under former president Joe Biden's administration. 'Dangerous precedent' The United States added 73,000 jobs last month, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2 percent from 4.1 percent, said the Department of Labour earlier yesterday. Hiring numbers for May were revised down from 144,000 to 19,000. The figure for June was shifted from 147,000 to 14,000. This was notably lower than job creation levels in recent years. During the pandemic, the economy lost jobs. The employment data points to challenges in the key labour market as companies took a cautious approach in hiring and investment while grappling with Trump's sweeping—and rapidly changing—tariffs this year. The numbers also pile pressure on the central bank as it mulls the best time to cut interest rates. With tariff levels climbing since the start of the year, both on imports from various countries and on sector-specific products such as steel, aluminum and autos, many firms have faced higher business costs. Some are now passing them along to consumers. William Beach, who previously held McEntarfer's post at the Bureau of Labour Statistics, warned that her firing 'sets a dangerous precedent and undermines the statistical mission of the Bureau.' The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) condemned her dismissal, saying large revisions in jobs numbers 'reflect not manipulation, but rather the dwindling resources afforded to statistical agencies.' 'Firing the head of a key government agency because you don't like the numbers they report, which come from surveys using long established procedures, is what happens in authoritarian countries, not democratic ones,' slammed Larry Summers, former US Treasury secretary under Democratic president Bill Clinton. 'Gamechanger' Heather Long, chief economist at the Navy Federal Credit Union, said yesterday's jobs report was a 'gamechanger.' 'The labour market is deteriorating quickly,' said Long, noting that of the growth in July, '75 per cent of those jobs were in one sector: health care.' 'The economy needs certainty soon on tariffs,' Long said. 'The longer this tariff whiplash lasts, the more likely this weak hiring environment turns into layoffs.' It remains unclear when the dust will settle, with Trump ordering the reimposition of steeper tariffs on scores of economies late Thursday, which are set to take effect in a week. A sharp weakening in the labor market could push the Federal Reserve toward slashing interest rates sooner to shore up the economy. Yesterday, the two Fed officials who voted this week against the central bank's decision to keep rates unchanged warned that standing pat risks further damaging the economy. Both Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller argued that the inflationary effects of tariffs were temporary. They added in separate statements that the bank should focus on fortifying the economy to avert further weakening in the labor market. Putting off an interest rate cut 'could result in a deterioration in the labor market and a further slowing in economic growth,' Bowman said. — AFP
