Yankees' Aaron Judge is swinging more than ever and reaping the benefits: Rosenthal

New York Times

2 days ago

The whole thing seems counterintuitive. Aaron Judge is performing at such a historic level, pitchers should be giving him fewer pitches to hit, causing him to swing less, not more.
But that's not how Judge's season is playing out.
Judge, 33, is swinging at the highest rates of his career. On first pitches. On pitches outside the zone. On all pitches in general.
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When informed of the various trends earlier this month, Judge seemed surprised.
'What do you mean, 'swinging more?'' he asked.
Your swing rate is higher.
'Oh, it is?' Judge replied, in a way that indicated he sincerely didn't know.
New York Yankees manager Aaron Boone had the same reaction when told Judge is swinging more.
'He is?' Boone asked.
Yep. Judge is the anti-Juan Soto, always on the attack. Entering Sunday, when he hit his 29th and 30th homers of the season, his first-pitch swing rate (35.8 percent), in-zone swing rate (67.9 percent), chase rate (24.5 percent) and overall swing rate (46.4 percent) were all career-highs for a full season.
Judge's explanation?
'I usually don't get too many pitches to hit,' he said. 'So if it's going to be the first one, try to be ready. If it's going to be the last one on a 3-2 count, try to be ready.
'It's tough to say. I feel I'm in a good position to hit. If you're in a good position to hit, you're going to swing the bat. At times in years past, if I didn't get to a good position to hit, you're not going to feel good swinging the bat, so you take a lot of pitches.'
Judge didn't enter the season thinking, 'OK, I need to try something different.' Why would such a thought even enter his mind? He was coming off his second MVP award in three years. His park- and league-adjusted OPS in 2024 was the 14th highest in history.
Not even the boldest coach or analyst would dare tug on Superman's cape and suggest to Judge a more aggressive approach was necessary. James Rowson, in his second year as Yankees hitting coach, said Judge just sort of came up with it on his own.
'More of it, really, is his mindset,' Rowson said. 'He has to stay aggressive in his mindset. If he doesn't, you start to fall into that mindset of, 'They may not pitch to me.' And then you end up missing pitches that you may hit.
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'I wouldn't tell you we had this long discussion and said, 'You're going to swing more, you're going to be more aggressive.' But I think to his credit, he basically said, 'I have to be aggressive. I can't be passive.' He's trusting his eyes. He's trusting his ability to lay off pitches out of the zone. But he wants to attack the zone.'
Even after cooling down in June, Judge still leads the majors with a .356 batting average and trails the Seattle Mariners' Cal Raleigh by only two home runs and two RBIs.
Yet, even as Judge pursues the American League Triple Crown and leads the major-league triple-slash categories by considerable margins, pitchers still are not treating him like Barry Bonds.
In Bonds' most spectacular four-year span, 2001 to '04, he averaged 71 intentional walks, including his major-league record 120 in '04. Judge is on pace for 35 intentional walks. His overall walk rate entering Sunday (15.1 percent) was his lowest since 2021, and ranked seventh in the majors.
Obviously, Bonds and Judge are different. Bonds batted from the left side. Judge hits from the right. And Bonds' alleged use of performance-enhancing drugs altered the perception of his offensive accomplishments.
But second-year Yankees bench coach Brad Ausmus, a former major-league catcher who played against Bonds, said Judge's knowledge of the strike zone is reminiscent of his former opponent, who led his league in walks 12 times.
'Barry knew exactly when it was on the plate, when it was too high, when it was too in. Judge is very, very similar to that,' Ausmus said. 'I didn't realize how much he controlled the strike zone. He really, really controls it. And as good as he was last year, he's better at it this year.'
The wonder of Bonds was that he might get only one pitch per game to hit, and still hit it out. Judge grew up in Linden, Calif., about 95 miles east of San Francisco. He was 9 when Bonds hit a single-season AL/NL record 73 home runs in 2001; he was 15 when Bonds finished his career with a record 762.
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He sees little comparison between what he is doing now and Bonds was doing then.
'They're still giving me a couple of pitches to hit per night. He would get one pitch a series and hit it to the moon,' Judge said. 'I'm not on that level yet. Hopefully one day. But he's the greatest of all time. I can't compete with him.'
Maybe not. Bonds from 2001 to '04 produced park- and league-adjusted OPS figures 159 percent, 168 percent, 131 percent and 163 percent above league average. Judge was 110 percent and 123 percent above league average in 2022 and '24, his two MVP seasons. Entering Sunday, he was 122 percent above league average this season.
If he's not Bonds, he's perhaps the current game's closest facsimile, along with the Los Angeles Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani.
So why do teams keep pitching to him?
Like so much in baseball these days, the answer boils down to a math equation.
Ted Williams famously said hitting a baseball is the single most difficult thing to do in sport. Well, hitting today is even more difficult than it was during Williams' time, and during Bonds' time, too.
Pitchers today throw harder than ever. Their breaking balls move more sharply than ever. Teams use pitching labs to devise new pitch grips and shapes through technology and analytics. The league batting average entering Sunday was .245. In 2002, the year Bonds hit a career-high .370, it was .261.
So, how afraid should pitchers be?
'We always talk about attacking aggression with aggression,' Boston Red Sox pitching coach Andrew Bailey said. 'You have to remember, even though Judge is the best hitter in the league right now, it's still a favorable outcome for you more times than not.
'When a guy like that is swinging, there's more opportunity for chase, more opportunity for a ball in play. Obviously, the power, performance and production is at a historic rate. But still, we have to attack him with aggression.'
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Certain game situations will dictate an intentional walk, as they do for all top hitters. But Bailey said, 'Anytime it's mano y mano, to win the at-bat you have to throw strikes. And your best bet against a hitter like that is to go 0-1, 0-2 as quickly as possible.'
The strength of the Yankees' lineup, even without Soto, leaves opponents with only so many ways to avoid Judge. The Yankees lead the American League in runs per game and are fourth overall behind the Dodgers, Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks. Judge, batting second or third, has taken 88 plate appearances with runners in scoring position, batting .348. And the hitters behind him are threats, too.
'The guys around me give me an opportunity to hit,' Judge said. 'That helps out, too.'
Yes, Judge will chase. Swing-and-miss has always been part of his game. But as Yankees assistant hitting coach Pat Roessler put it, 'If there's a little bit of extra swinging involved, the damage is so great that it's not a problem.'
Especially because there is no easy way to get Judge out. Up in the zone is often preferable to the bottom, as was reinforced to the Red Sox's Garret Crochet on June 13 when Judge hit a mammoth game-tying shot in the ninth inning after striking out three times. Crochet's 99.6 mph four-seam fastball, on his 107th and final pitch, was down and in, an area where Judge punishes four-seamers from left-handers. But the pitch was on the black, almost a ball.
And Judge deposited it on Lansdowne Street, the fastest pitch he has hit for a home run in his career.
'He's catching some fastballs sometimes a little deeper than normal,' Rowson said. 'And he's catching some breaking balls sometimes a little more out in front of the plate. That's a credit to how long he's in the zone,'
'He gets in the strike zone early with his swing and he stays through it really long, which allows him to cover a multitude of speeds and shapes. You can throw 95. You can throw a changeup or off-speed pitch at 85. He's so good, he's still staying through the zone long enough to contact all of those pitches.'
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Which is how Judge, for the fourth time, has reached 30 homers before the Yankees' 85th game. According to MLB.com's Sarah Langs, that ties Babe Ruth for the most seasons in major-league history with 30-plus homers before his team's 85th game.
Funny, when Judge was flirting with a .400 batting average earlier this month, Boone said he didn't sense his right fielder was truly locked in, truly hot.
'I just feel like there have been stretches over the last few years where it's like, this is going to be a homer. I don't feel that way yet this year,' Boone said. 'He's getting his hits. And he gets his homers. But you make your pitches. You get him out.'
Boone's words proved ominous. In a 14-game stretch starting June 14, Judge batted .176 with a .645 OPS and only two homers. But on Sunday, he doubled his home-run total for the month.
The first, a two-run shot with an exit velocity of 110.2 mph, came on an 0-1 sweeper from the Athletics' Luis Severino. The second, another two-run shot, but at 107 mph, came after Judge fouled off the first pitch from reliever Tyler Ferguson and two more pitches on 1-2 before running the count to 3-2.
For the best hitter on the planet, swinging early and often seems to be a good idea.