logo
IMD raises monsoon rain outlook to 106% of the long-period average

IMD raises monsoon rain outlook to 106% of the long-period average

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday raised its monsoon forecast for 2025, projecting rainfall at 106 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), up from 105 per cent predicted in April. It also expects June rainfall to be 'above normal', at over 108 per cent of the LPA.
Cumulative monsoon rainfall between 105 per cent and 110 per cent of the LPA during the June-September period is considered 'above normal'. The seasonal LPA for the country, calculated over the period from 1971 to 2020, stands at 87 centimetres. The forecast for seasonal June-September rainfall carries a margin of error of +/- 4 per cent.
The agency said rainfall across nearly all of India's homogenous regions — except the Northeast and parts of Bihar — was likely to be normal to above normal this year. Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya could see below-normal rains, according to IMD's regional outlook.
'Above-normal' June rainfall is expected to keep maximum temperatures across most of India at or below seasonal averages, with no heat waves anticipated. The month typically receives 165.4 millimetres of rainfall.
Monsoon rainfall in the 'core zone' — which comprises key rain-fed agricultural regions — is also forecast to be above normal, with a 56 per cent probability of strong precipitation. Good monsoon rain across key rainfed regions in central and western India could significantly boost pulses and oilseed output, potentially reducing the country's dependence on high-cost imports.
Overall, a strong and well-distributed southwest monsoon is expected to bolster kharif crop production and leave behind significant residual soil moisture for a healthy rabi harvest.
Agriculture was projected to account for about 16.35 per cent of India's gross domestic product (GDP) in FY25, according to the government's second advance estimate. A robust harvest could help the government curb food inflation and provide more room for the Reserve Bank of India to cut benchmark interest rates in FY26. It may also encourage the government to be more liberal on farm exports.
The central bank has forecast 6.5 per cent GDP growth and 4 per cent retail inflation for FY26.
Food inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, dropped to 1.78 per cent in April, from 2.69 per cent in March. Oils & fats and fruit were the only categories with double-digit inflation in April.
'Currently, neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific regions, while the latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System, as well as other model forecasts, indicates that the neutral ENSO conditions are likely to continue during the monsoon season. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is another factor that could influence Indian monsoon, is also expected to be weakly negative,' said IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra. He expressed confidence in the agency's 'above normal' forecast, citing improved accuracy in recent years.
He said that between 2021 and 2024, IMD's average absolute error of the operational forecast was 2.28 per cent of the LPA for the second-stage forecast, and 3.15 per cent of the LPA for the first-stage forecast. 'This was well within the error range of +/- 4 per cent,' Mohapatra said. While the average absolute error of the forecast for the previous four years (2017 to 2020) of both first and second-stage forecasts was 7.5 per cent of the LPA.
The southwest monsoon reached Kerala on May 24 this year, marking its earliest arrival over the Indian mainland since 2009, when it reached the southern state on May 23. The primary rain-bearing system set in over Mumbai 16 days before the usual date, making it the earliest since 1950.
The southwest monsoon usually makes its onset over Kerala by June 1, reaches Mumbai by June 11, and covers the entire country by July 8. It starts retreating from northwest India around September 17 and withdraws completely by October 15.
Meteorologists caution that the date of monsoon onset has no direct correlation with overall seasonal rainfall. Early or late arrival in Kerala or Mumbai doesn't necessarily determine the rain's progress or distribution elsewhere in the country, which is determined by large-scale variabilities and global, regional and local features.
India saw 934.8 millimetres of rainfall in 2024 — 108 per cent of the average.
In 2023, it had recorded 820 millimetres, 94.4 per cent of the average. It had seen 925 millimetres of rainfall in 2022; 870 millimetres in 2021; and 958 millimetres in 2020, according to the IMD data.
(With agency inputs)
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Govt changes timing of overnight rate release with effect from Aug 4
Govt changes timing of overnight rate release with effect from Aug 4

Business Standard

timean hour ago

  • Business Standard

Govt changes timing of overnight rate release with effect from Aug 4

India has pushed the timing of publishing an overnight benchmark rate by two hours, with effect from August 4, Financial Benchmark India said. Financial Benchmark India will publish the daily Mumbai Interbank Offer Rate at 12:45 p.m. IST, instead of the current 10:45 a.m. IST, it said in a release dated July 18. "The benchmark rate will be computed from actual traded data in the call money market for the first three hours of trading, i.e. from 9 AM to 12 Noon, instead of the first one hour of trading data presently used for computation of MIBOR," the FBIL said. This move comes after FBIL started publishing a new overnight benchmark, the Secured Overnight Rupee Rate, which gets published daily at 12:45 p.m. IST. SORR is computed from actual traded data in the tri-party repo market and the basket repo trades of the market repo segment for the first three hours of trading. A committee set up by the Reserve Bank of India to review the MIBOR had recommended that to compute the rate, the first three hours of trades should be considered instead of the first one hour. Since about 70 per cent-80 per cent of the daily traded volume in the call money market is transacted in the first three hours of trading, data from that duration would enhance the representativeness of the benchmark, according to the committee.

Corporate bonds in India: From institutional stronghold to broader participation
Corporate bonds in India: From institutional stronghold to broader participation

Economic Times

timean hour ago

  • Economic Times

Corporate bonds in India: From institutional stronghold to broader participation

India's fixed-income landscape is undergoing a quiet yet powerful shift. While equity markets have long dominated headlines, a new narrative is emerging in the bond market in India, led by record-breaking corporate bond issuances, deeper institutional involvement, and a growing appetite for predictable, inflation-beating FY25, companies raised a record ₹9.9 lakh crore through corporate bonds, according to recent data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). That's a 28% increase over the previous year. The rise in corporate bond issuance signals growing traction in India's corporate bond market. This also points to an uptick in private corporate capex. The increased corporate debt outlay is likely to power growth, spearheading India to the third-largest economy position by 2028. 1mg looks to become a digital health hub Even as issuance soars, one question remains: Are retail investors benefiting from this growth, or is their participation in the corporate bond market still lagging? A ₹53.6 lakh crore corporate bond opportunity untapped by retail India's overall bond market has now touched ₹226 lakh crore in size (around USD 2.6 trillion), as per RBI's June 2025 Financial Stability Report. Of this, corporate bonds in India account for over ₹53.6 lakh crore in outstanding stock. The rest includes government bonds, treasury bills, and state development loans in India. Yet, despite this expansion, the Indian bond market remains dominated byinstitutional investors. Mutual funds, insurers, banks, and pension funds still hold 96% of outstanding corporate bonds, according to market estimates. Retail participation rate, by contrast, remains in the low single digits—a glaring gap compared to their enthusiasm for equities and gold. Why retail investors hesitated — and why that may be changing Retail investor caution wasn't entirely unfounded. Until recently, many top-rated bonds had minimum investment sizes of ₹1 lakh or more. This ruled out many retail investors. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) reduced the minimum ticket size to ₹10,000; these changes have improved the accessibility of the bond market. Liquidity is the second pain point, as the secondary corporate bond market remains uneven, with only 3.8% of the total outstanding stock traded monthly. This lack of depth made it harder for individuals to exit their positions before maturity. This concern is especially relevant for those accustomed to the liquidity of stocks or mutual funds. But the winds are shifting. The minimum investment size has come down sharply. The bond market's liquidity is gradually improving, thanks to stronger regulations, better transparency, and greater accessibility and visibility. Online bond platforms such as Jiraaf are also making it easier for retail investors to participate. The macroeconomic environment is shifting. Interest rates are now easing, with the RBI cutting the repo rate by 100 basis points in 2025. Inflation is gradually cooling. This is prompting more investors to turn to fixed income securities to lock in higher yields. Currently, AAA-rated corporate bonds yield 30-50 basis points more than comparable fixed deposits, while AA-rated corporate bonds offer 50-200 basis points higher returns with a similar level of risk to fixed deposits. The return profile shifts dramatically in favour of investors when A and BBB-rated bonds come into play. These bonds offer 200 to 500 basis points more than fixed deposits with a very balanced risk profile. While some argue that A- and BBB-rated bonds pose a higher risk and thus offer a higher return, the data paints a different picture. The default ratio of investment-grade bonds, which encompasses the AAA to BBB segment, remains low. According to CRISIL, a credit rating agency, BBB-rated bonds witha three-year tenure havethe highest default rate among investment-grade bonds, at just 2.21%. The lower default rates speak to the safety of corporate bonds as an investment alternative to riskier and more volatile asset classes, such as equities, gold, and real estate. The attached CRISIL data gives a detailed breakdown of the default rates for various credit ratings. India's fixed-income market is also undergoing a technological revolution. Platforms such as the SEBI-regulated OBPP player Jiraaf are making corporate bond investments more accessible than ever. With entry points as low as ₹1,000, even everyday investors can now build fixed-income portfolios that were once the domain of institutions. What is driving the corporate bond market depth Indian corporate balance sheets are at their healthiest, which is giving Indian Inc considerable headroom to borrow. Corporate bonds offer companies more control than bank loans. Strong financials are also allowing firms to raise capital without diluting its stake in the company. Additionally, interest rates are reducing. This has prompted corporates to turn to the bond market to fund expansion while retaining tenure, rates, and repayment cycles. This ease of access is deepening the bond market from the issuer's point of view in FY26. On the other hand, strong demand from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), as well as institutional and retail demand is driving the supply-side uptick. The FPIs are attracted to the higher returns provided by corporate bonds as G-sec yields decline. Institutional demand is robust, as debt becomes a more attractive asset in the light of equity market volatility. This is also evident in the increasing cash inflow into debt mutual funds over the past months. Equity investments had been the darling of investors for the past decade, with most experts and amateur investors vouching for the growth aspect of the asset class. However, despite market uproar around high returns, the average Nifty50 return over the past decade is 12%. A 12% equity growth barely beats the returns offered by corporate bonds, while posing a much higher risk and volatility. Investors are realising the stability that corporate bonds provide. They are gradually shifting their preference to bonds, focusing on building a well-diversified bond portfolio that includes bonds from different issuers, ratings, and tenures. Investment platforms, such as Jiraaf, are helping investors access the Indian corporate bond market by offering curated bonds with transparent credit scoring, making corporate bonds more accessible to non-institutional investors. In addition to providing curated deals, Jiraaf is also developing tools that simplify bond analysis and make it accessible to all. The first of its kind Bond Analyzer brings analysis to the fixed-income realm, which was previously limited to equities. Looking ahead Despite its growing size and importance, the Indian bond market still lags behind its global peers in terms of retail penetration. The direction is promising. As awareness grows, tools become easier to use, and yields remain attractive, there's reason to believe that 2025 could mark an inflection point for retail entry into corporate debt. For investors seeking to balance risk and return amid equity market volatility, corporate bond investment offers a compelling middle path, blending capital preservation with growth. Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in the story are independent professional judgment of the experts and we do not take any responsibility for the accuracy of their views. The brand is solely liable for the correctness, reliability of the content and/or compliance of applicable laws. The above is non-editorial content and TIL does not guarantee, vouch or endorse any of it. Please take all steps necessary to ascertain that any information and content provided is correct, updated, and verified. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel) (This article is generated and published by ET Spotlight team. You can get in touch with them on etspotlight@

Mumbai weather: Financial capital braces for heavy rains; wet week ahead
Mumbai weather: Financial capital braces for heavy rains; wet week ahead

Economic Times

timean hour ago

  • Economic Times

Mumbai weather: Financial capital braces for heavy rains; wet week ahead

Live Events Mumbai weather highlights Temperature: High - 29.2 °C | Low - 26.7 °C Weather Condition: Heavy rain Rain Probability: 95 % Humidity: 94 % Wind Speed: 15.1 km/h Air Quality Index (AQI): 59 Detailed weather forecast for Mumbai Rainfall & humidity in Mumbai Mumbai AQI & wind speed Mumbai weather forecast for Tomorrow Weekly Weather Forecast for Mumbai Date Max Temp (°C) Min Temp (°C) Condition Rain Chance (%) 2025-07-21 29.2 26.7 Moderate rain 95 2025-07-22 29.0 26.8 Moderate rain 87 2025-07-23 27.9 26.6 Heavy rain 83 2025-07-24 28.0 26.7 Moderate rain 87 2025-07-25 27.4 26.7 Moderate rain 62 2025-07-26 28.1 26.7 Patchy rain nearby 88 2025-07-27 28.7 27.1 Patchy rain nearby 87 (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel The weather in Mumbai on Monday is expected to be gloomy with heavy rainfall. The temperature is expected to range from between 26.7 °C and 29.2 ° are advised to be prepared for a wet day ahead, as the rain is likely to persist throughout the day. With humidity levels soaring, it's advisable to stay indoors where possible and keep an eye on local weather rains lashed Mumbai overnight, causing waterlogging in areas and slowing vehicular movement in parts of the city, civic officials said on a reduced rain spell earlier this month and sunny skies for the last few days, the city witnessed heavy overnight intensity of the rains had reduced by early morning but most parts of the eastern and eastern suburbs continued to receive heavy downpour. The heavy overnight showers led to waterlogging at several low-lying areas in the city and Andheri subway (in western part of Mumbai) was closed for traffic due to water accumulation. Motorists complained of slow traffic movement on both the Eastern Express Highway and the Western Express Highway due to rain and other reasons during the morning rush hours. Some commuters also complained that locals trains were running with a little the 24-hour period ending at 8 am on Monday, the island city recorded an average rainfall of 23.45 mm, the eastern suburbs received 36.42 mm and the western suburbs got 50.02 mm rainfall, civic officials the next 24 hours, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a generally cloudy sky with moderate spells of rain in Mumbai and suburbs, with the possibility of thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds at isolated morning starts with temperatures around 26.7 °C, making it a cool start before the rain sets in. The temperature will rise slightly to 29.0 in the afternoon but will be accompanied with heavy rains. The rain is expected to continue through the evening with a slight dip in temperature by the Expected? of Rain: 95 %Humidity Levels:Morning - 84 %Afternoon - 73 %Evening - 74 %Night - 79 %AQI Level: 59Major Pollutants: NoneWind Direction & Speed: 15.1 km/h from SSWOn July 22, 2025, Mumbai is expected to experience moderate rain with temperatures ranging from a low of 26.8 °C to a high of 29.0 °C. Rain chances remain high at 87%, so residents should be prepared for another wet day.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store