The NBA's salary cap for 2026 is an unmitigated disaster we'll quickly feel
Remember the NBA's still relatively new second-apron tax rules? You know, the ones that threaten to break apart your favorite teams and force contenders to make shrewd, difficult decisions? Yes, those very same rules! You got it!
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Well, according to the league's projected salary cap increase for the 2026-2027 season (so, starting next summer), the second apron is likely about to wreak even more havoc on NBA squads who are already tight up against the cap. It's just an unfortunate reality.
As ESPN's Bobby Marks reported on Monday, the NBA's salary cap will only go up seven percent in 2026-2027. For posterity, players receiving extensions and new contracts are entitled to an eight percent raise on their contracts. All power to players for being in one of the only professions where wages actually rise with inflation, but that's obviously quite problematic for team building, especially for squads who already have a bunch of big-money player contracts on their books.
This is also an issue because the assumption around the league was that it would generally go up 10 percent every summer. This meant that many teams, like, say, the Minnesota Timberwolves, were already operating with that level of increase in mind and structuring contracts around the idea they would soon have more breathing room.
Instead, they will not, and the second apron is likened to create even more of a cap squeeze:
Suffice it to say, with a lower-than-expected salary cap a summer from now, we may now only be scratching the surface of problems the second apron may create for NBA teams.
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Given the extremely stringent penalties inherent in possible trades and the (lack of) available offseason resources, the second apron is something that most franchises around the league do everything in their power to avoid. And if they're already in the second apron or in danger of broaching it, they may consider a shocking trade to break up their roster that otherwise wouldn't have come to mind to get some cap relief. That or they approach internal extensions for players differently — either by lowballing them or not offering an extension in the first place.
This is nothing to say of free agency, which figures to be more of a barren wasteland. There are many competent NBA veterans who are certainly worth than minimums. But with teams trying to avoid the second apron, these sorts of veterans may find it increasingly harder to find any higher offers than minimums. And if you think it won't affect this year's open market period, boy, do I have the worst news for you. The mere hint that there will be less flexibility down the road means NBA squads will likely be even more cautious about committing to anything that isn't firmly bolted down.
Following this disastrous news about the salary cap, either the NBA takes action to provide some relief for teams (such as a grandfather clause or a lessening of penalties), or this problem is almost certainly about to get worse.
This article originally appeared on For The Win: NBA's projected salary cap for 2026 will hurt free agency, make second apron worse
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