ESPN includes Texas A&M among 32 teams that can make the 2025 College Football Playoff

USA Today

2 days ago

Texas A&M has yet to reach the College Football Playoff since its inception, or, for that matter, made it to a conference championship game since the 1998 season. Yes, the drought is notable, but second-year head coach Mike Elko looks like the answer after six years under Jimbo Fisher, who only accomplished two nine-win campaigns in six seasons.
While the Aggies failed to capitalize on what was a 7-1 start, ending the year 8-5 with consecutive losses to Texas and USC in the Las Vegas Bowl, however, this skid was primarily due to star running back Le'Veon Moss's season-ending injury, forcing then-freshman quarterback Marcel Reed to become a drop-back passer with little help from his wide receiver rotation, who failed to separate in coverage consistently.
After returning 72% of the 2024 roster, head coach Mike Elko added 14 players from the transfer portal, including wide receivers KC Concepcion and Mario Craver, cornerback Julian Humphrey, and defensive lineman Tyler Odyedim, who are all in line to make a significant impact this season.
Still, is the 2025 roster talented and deep enough to earn a bid to the 12-team College Football Playoff? Possibly, but that would mean at least nine or ten wins within a schedule that includes road games against Notre Dame, Arkansas, Missouri, LSU, and the Texas Longhorns to end the regular season.
On Friday, ESPN writer and CFP expert Heather Dinich revealed that 32 teams, which is reportedly the most in the CFP era, have at least a 10% chance to make the field, including Texas A&M, who come in at No. 11 with a 34.3% chance to make the field, and a 2.3% chance to win the national title, according to ESPN analyitcs. So, does Dinich agree with ESPN's prediction?
"Disagree. This is a lot of faith in a team that lost four of its final five games and needed a defensive overhaul. The Aggies can make the playoff as an at-large team, but having success against the nation's ninth-toughest schedule will require significant improvement. That can be measured early with a Sept. 13 win against Notre Dame, a team that beat the Aggies at home last season."
Dinich makes a fair point, and it is valid to state that defeating Notre Dame, which was just a couple of plays from beating Ohio State in the 2024 National Title game, would likely result in a momentum shift and prove that the Aggies belong in the playoff picture.
Dinich further states that Texas A&M's "toughest" test will come against the Longhorns in the Lone Star Showdown, but I'll disagree and say LSU in Baton Rouge, where the Aggies have not won since 1994, is the most challenging game on the schedule. It's pretty straightforward the rest of the way, as Dinich notes that the selection committee will be focused on road victories, while defeating Florida and South Carolina in Kyle Field is also critical.
"Marquee road wins. The Aggies' best chances to impress the committee are trips to Notre Dame, LSU and Texas. Midseason trips to Arkansas and Missouri will also be difficult, and are part of a three-game road swing that will help define the Aggies' place in the committee's rankings. The committee would reward Texas A&M for a winning record in those five road games. That would mean Texas A&M beat at least one of the big three -- Notre Dame, LSU or Texas -- along with Arkansas and Missouri. The better they fare against those opponents, the more margin for error the committee might give them at home against Florida and South Carolina."
What the Aggies need to avoid is falling off late, similar to last season. This would mean accomplishing their goals on the road, likely winning back-to-back games against Missouri and South Carolina, before taking on the Texas Longhorns.
The path is there, and with Mike Elko taking over as the program's defensive playcaller, Marcel Reed improving from the pocket, and the running back room and veteran offensive line opening up holes in the run game, staying healthy should be enough to get the job done.
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