Asia currencies: Thai baht hit by political turmoil
The baht fell 0.4% in its fifth session of losses and was on course to log its worst week since late February.
Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was facing the prospect of losing her government's majority as the United Thai Nation party, a vital coalition partner, looked set to demand her resignation after just 10 months in power.
This follows the Bhumjaithai Party's withdrawal from the alliance after a leaked phone call with Cambodia's former leader.
The political instability comes against the backdrop of persistent bond outflows driven by low returns and vulnerability to US trade tariffs and the government's call for a weaker baht to support exports and tourism.
'At a time when unprecedented geoeconomic challenges are confronting Thailand, the lack of political leadership/certainty is an unwelcome handicap for trade/diplomacy and wider geopolitical leverage,' said Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research for Asia excluding Japan at Mizuho Bank, in a note.
'The BoT (Bank of Thailand) arguably needs to compensate, hastening another 50-75bp of rate cuts,' he said, adding that the optimal policy mix for the central bank would be to cut rates while stabilizing the baht.
Thai stocks rose 0.3%. Poon Panichpibool, markets strategist at Krung Thai Bank, attributed the rise to a combination of technical rebound and some investors buying stocks on a dip after Thursday's 2.4% fall.
Other regional currencies inched up on the day but were set for weekly losses as investors weighed the possibility of US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict.
The Indonesian rupiah was on course for its worst weekly performance since early April, and the Philippine peso was poised for its biggest weekly drop since October.
The South Korean won rose 0.8% on Friday but was set for its second consecutive weekly fall.
Taiwan's dollar added 0.4%, a day after the country's central bank kept its policy rate unchanged and signalled there was no need for a rate cut this year.
Meanwhile, the Hong Kong dollar hit the weak end of its trading band for the first time in two years.
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Express Tribune
6 hours ago
- Express Tribune
Kashmir issue echoes at United Nations
Pakistani Ambassador to the United Nations Asim Iftikhar Ahmad speaks during a United Nations Security Council meeting on the Israel-Iran conflict at the UN headquarters in New York on June 20, 2025. Photo: AFP Pakistan's Ambassador to the United Nations Asim Iftikhar Ahmad, who assumed the UN Security Council's presidency for July on Tuesday, has underscored the need for resolving the Kashmir dispute, which he said was causing tensions and frictions between India and Pakistan. "It is time that this (Kashmir dispute) be addressed, and I would say this is not only a responsibility of Pakistan — we are here temporarily, two years as a non-permanent member," he told a crowded news conference at UN Headquarters in New York, while responding to a question. "I think it's the responsibility of the Security Council itself, and particularly the permanent members to see that they take certain steps to actually get their own resolutions implemented," Ambassador Asim Iftikhar said. "That's the way forward," he added. Ahead of the press conference, the 15-member council met and approved the programme of work for the month of July. "Our approach is firmly rooted in the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, peaceful settlement of disputes, sovereign equality, respect for international law and multilateralism," Ambassador Asim Iftikhar told UN corps of correspondents. Pakistan, he said, will convene two signature events during its presidency - a high-level debate on "Promoting International Peace and Security through Multilateralism and Peaceful Settlement of Disputes," scheduled for 22 July, and on UN-OIC cooperation on July 24. Both debates will be chaired by Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Senator Ishaq Dar. Moreover, DPM/FM Dar would also preside over the quarterly open debate on Palestine on July 23. "The debates stem from the reality that today's crises often emerge from unresolved disputes, the erosion of international obligations, and the underutilization of peaceful means enshrined in Chapter VI of the Charter," the Pakistani envoy said. "We aim to: Reflect on the effectiveness of dispute settlement mechanisms; Discuss obstacles to implementation of Council decisions; Explore ways to enhance diplomacy, mediation and technical support; and Reinforce the commitments made in the Pact for the Future to preventive diplomacy and peaceful dispute resolution." On Kashmir, Ambassador Asim Iftikhar also said that all issues on the Security Council's agenda can be discussed any time and the decades-old dispute over the Himalayan state was on agenda under India-Pakistan question. The UN Security Council has pronounced on it in several resolutions that, among other elements, grant the Kashmiri people their right to self-determination, he said. "It is festering dispute, It has several dimensions," the Pakistan envoy said, noting its peace and security dimension, political and legal dimension, and it also human rights dimension. "This is an issue that has been there unresolved; It is a cause of tensions and frictions between India and Pakistan. It is impeding development of friendly relations in our region. It is time that this be addressed," he added. The Council, he said, will remain focused on key global issues, including the situation in the Middle East and developments in Africa, Europe, Asia, and Latin America.
Express Tribune
7 hours ago
- Express Tribune
Saving Iran's artefacts
During the Israel-Iran war, the countries traded missile and rocket fire that killed and injured hundreds of civilians and put the region's cultural heritage at risk. How can artefacts and historical sites be protected? As per DW, the Paris-based International Council of Museums (ICOM) had issued an emphatic warning after the first bomb strikes: There was a "growing danger" for museums and their employees. The ICOM, which consists of 8,000 museum professionals worldwide, including members from Israel and Iran, had demanded that both sides adhere to international conventions for the protection of cultural heritage, even in the event of conflict. "However, we can do no more than admonish and warn," the president of the ICOM's German National Committee, Felicia Sternfeld, told DW. Did this appeal have an impact? The news situation on the ground is thin, with only sparse information coming out of Iran in particular, as the government allows hardly any foreign journalists to enter and severely restricts the press. However, one thing seems certain: Contingency plans were activated in both countries at the start of the Israel-Iran conflict. As much as possible, experts worked to secure, remove and relocate cultural assets. It is currently unclear whether there has been any damage. Tehran museum evacuated Iran has a rich cultural heritage. This includes 28 UNESCO World Heritage Sites and about 840 museums, 300 of which are under the administration of the Culture Ministry. "Iran has a well-organised and professional heritage authority," Judith Thomalsky, the head of the Tehran branch of the German Archaeological Institute, said in an interview with Deutschlandfunk radio. Thomalsky's office has been operating from Berlin since 2023, when thousands of Iranians protested the regime and the German Federal Foreign Office withdrew staff from German institutions as a precaution. The Institute itself continues its work on the premises of the German Embassy in Tehran with local staff, and Thomalsky maintains as much contact as possible with her Iranian network. Barbara Helwing, director of the Museum of the Ancient Near East in Berlin and Thomalsky's predecessor from 2000 to 2014, is also an expert on Iran. She told German regional broadcaster RBB that she was in contact with her colleagues at the National Museum until recently; there has been occasional radio silence because the Iranian regime had shut down the Internet. "We know that the museum and its two large buildings near the Foreign Ministry have been emptied," Helwing said. She added that she has seen photos showing empty display cases. Sandbags shield exhibits The Iranian National Museum is not only the oldest but also the most important museum in Iran. Comprising two buildings with three halls each, it houses more than 300,000 archaeological finds from pre-Islamic and Islamic times, including many objects made of stone, ceramics, glass and metals. "In Iran, the relationship with cultural heritage is very close," Helwing said. The country's cultural identity is based on a long history and the awareness that the first real-world empire in history, the ancient Persian Empire (around 550 to 330 BCE), originated in Iran. According to Helwing, all portable museum objects were hastily transported into the cellars. The non-movable artefacts, mainly stone objects, were covered with sandbags to protect them from strikes and flying debris. Unlike in Israel, there are no bunkers in Iran — neither for people nor for valuable art treasures. Protecting archaeological sites that are often located in open areas has proved far more difficult. "You can't really protect them," Helwing said. "You can only hope that they are far enough away from potential targets." Taq-e Bostan in danger? According to the English-language Tehran Times, Taq-e Bostan, an archeological complex from the era of the Sasanian dynasty (224-651 CE) that includes a one-of-a-kind monumental rock relief, faces particular danger. The newspaper reported that the Israeli Air Force bombed a weapons depot just two kilometers away from the complex. The resulting shock waves and vibrations may have damaged the site, Helwing said, though she lacked more precise information. "Iran's Department of Antiquities knows what it needs to do," said Judith Thomalsky, a historian who focuses on prehistoric times and who has spent over 20 years working in Iran. She also believes that it isn't possible to protect open archaeological sites such as the Persepolis complex, the Bisotun inscriptions and Takht-e Soleyman, or "Throne of Solomon," an archaeological site. She told the Berlin daily Tagesspiegel that, though she doesn't believe that cultural assets face an acute threat, it is impossible to know how things may develop. World heritage sites are under formal protection of the international community. The 1954 Hague convention regulates the protection of cultural material in armed conflict, while the 1972 UNESCO World Heritage Convention governs conservation of cultural assets among nations. From July 6-16, the UNESCO World Heritage Committee will be holding its 47th session in Paris. Among other things, experts will discuss potential future UNESCO cultural heritage sites. The session will be livestreamed.
Business Recorder
8 hours ago
- Business Recorder
Yet another chance to reset the future
On the morning of June 27, the Swat River, usually a tranquil ribbon winding through the valleys, suddenly roared to life. Families who had gathered by its banks found themselves fighting a wall of water. Within minutes, around a dozen lives were lost. Sirens never blared, rescue helicopters never arrived, and administrative teams showed up only after the river had receded, leaving homes and hopes in ruins. Pakistan is now among the world's most climate vulnerable countries, with 2022 floods alone causing nearly $15 billion in damages, this underscores the urgent need for flood defenses, real-time warning systems, and strict land use regulation to prevent escalating monsoon disasters. Only weeks earlier, Pakistan had leapt onto the global stage by prevailing in a four-day exchange with India in the month of May. What began as tit-for-tat strikes over the Pahalgam false flag could have unravelled our unity. Instead, our air force once more reestablished its air supremacy, our military forces stood firm, rival parties paused their quarrels, and even Washington and Beijing urged calm. In that ordeal, Pakistan emerged victorious, and more importantly, unified. We almost got this glory furthered as an important regional and global player in Iran-Israel conflict. This stark contrast: vulnerability was laid bare and strength reclaimed, offers another chance for our nation. Out of nowhere, we have regained serious traction: as a stabilizer in South Asia, as a trusted partner in the Islamic world on security and development, and as a country capable of both weathering storms and commanding respect. The real challenge is to turn this fleeting goodwill into lasting prosperity. In my last column titled 'The Missed Century', I emphasized that no South Asian nation prospers in isolation. Reviving that promise requires a new imagination of integration. The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor must evolve from isolated highways into a mesh of trade and energy connectivity, westward into Afghanistan and Central Asia, and, when the time is right, eastward toward India. Our engagement with BRICS+ should go beyond observer status; it must translate into technology transfers in agritech, digital finance, and renewable energy; co-financed, co-managed, and locally adapted. Since independence, Pakistan has struggled to build a resilient economy: its path repeatedly derailed by entrenched patronage networks and chronically misaligned priorities. Despite receiving major aid during the Cold War and post-9/11 eras, the country failed to translate this support into gains in agricultural productivity or industrial capacity. Instead, consumption surged while structural fundamentals stagnated. Today, the economy remains trapped in a cycle of circular debt, periodic bailouts, and policy inertia. A rent-seeking political economy lies at the core of this dysfunction, where vested interests have hollowed out institutions, undermined regulatory oversight, and crippled the state's capacity to deliver basic services. As of March 2025, public debt has reached PKR 74 trillion (68 percent of GDP), with debt servicing costs crowding out development spending and constraining every budgetary choice. Pakistan's Gross National Savings Rate, at just 13 percent (2023), is the lowest in South Asia (compared to 35 percent in Bangladesh, 31 percent in India, and 27 percent in Sri Lanka). Exports remain stuck around US$ 30 billion, while rising imports widen the trade deficit and erode reserves, if it weren't for remittances from expats, the situation wouldn't remain sustainable even for three months. Meanwhile, state-owned enterprises like PIA, Pakistan Railways, and the DISCOs have cost the exchequer PKR 5.8 trillion in cumulative losses. Inequality is stark: the top 10 percent of households control 60 percent of national wealth and 43 percent of total income, while half the population owns no land and just 5 percent of assets. Reversing this decline demands vision and discipline. The illusion of reform-through-austerity must be replaced with genuine fiscal and governance restructuring. Reform of the National Finance Commission (NFC) is vital to ensure equitable, development-focused allocations. Local governments must be empowered; the federal and provincial bureaucracies trimmed; and loss-making SOEs either privatized or restructured. In the energy sector, a strategic shift toward hydropower, solar, and nuclear, coupled with efforts to cut transmission losses (18% in FY24), can ease pressure on public finances and improve supply stability. An inclusive Islamisation of the economy is now an imperative — not as tokenism, but as a lever for social equity and domestic capital mobilisation. Tools like Zakat and Ushr can help formalize the informal sector, broaden the tax base, and enhance welfare delivery. To put it in perspective, approximately PKR 2 trillion of additional federal revenue can be generated from applying Ushr on annual basis. At the same time, infrastructure financing must increasingly rely on sukuk instruments, reducing dependence on interest-bearing debt while unlocking Shariah-compliant capital. At least 50 percent of Pakistan's debt should be reprofiled toward sukuks, paving the way for sustainable growth rooted in ethical finance. With the right strategic alignment, Pakistan can position itself as a regional hub for Shariah-compliant green finance and a model for Islamic development that is modern, inclusive, and sustainable. These measures must be reinforced through institutional reforms of the FBR, Board of Investment, and Planning Commission to expand fiscal capacity and reduce inefficiencies. Following diplomatic gains in May 2025, Pakistan must negotiate a five-year debt rollover; not merely for short-term liquidity relief, but to create fiscal space for critical investments in education, healthcare, and flood resilience. Yet even this window will close quickly if institutions remain hamstrung by corruption and mismanagement. Pakistan scored just 27/100 on Transparency International's 2024 Corruption Perceptions Index, ranking 135th out of 180 countries. Small and medium enterprises continue to face suffocating bureaucratic red tape, while foreign direct investment, just US$ 1.78 billion in Jul–Apr FY25, remains far below the levels needed to drive sustainable growth. To attract serious capital, Pakistan must produce international-standard, dollar-based, bankable feasibility studies, particularly in energy, mines & minerals, tourism, logistics, and agribusiness. This effort must be supported by streamlined approvals, transparent cross-ministerial coordination, and consistent federal–provincial alignment. A unified, pro-investment posture is no longer optional; it is the precondition for economic recovery and long-term resilience. And while we look forward, we must also look inward. We cannot afford to repeat the patterns of crippled democratic regimes or that of Ayub's entitlement, Yahya's recklessness, Zia's paranoia, or Musharraf's ad hocism. Each era, in its own way, mortgaged our future: sometimes to foreign capital, sometimes to internal repression, and often to miscalculated wars or fleeting global favor. We cannot afford another lost decade. Reform must be institutional, not individual; strategic, not opportunistic; and inclusive, not elitist. As Lee Kuan Yew declared in his final National Day Rally, 'We are going to live only one life. If we have to die, we will die for a cause.' That cause today is a Pakistan that seizes this golden opportunity: turning trials into triumphs, rebuilding stronger, and harnessing the traction we have unexpectedly regained across South Asia, the Islamic world, and beyond. But to translate this moment into lasting transformation, we must heed another of Lee's enduring calls: 'Get our ablest and our best into politics.' The time has come to abandon apathy, cynicism, and mediocrity. Pakistan's revival demands competence, meritocracy, and courage to lead from the front. History will judge us not by the storms we endure or the skirmishes we survive, but by the resolve we show in responding to them. It is rare for a nation on the brink to be pulled back into the fold of global relevance; rarer still is one that recognizes the moment and rises to meet it. Pakistan must now choose not survival, but purpose. And this — perhaps our last — is yet another chance. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
