Ralph Norman plans announcement about SC governor run. Can he win in 2026?

Yahoo

30-06-2025

A York County name is in the mix of prospective candidates for South Carolina governor.
Rep. Ralph Norman said in a Queen City News interview he will announce whether or not he plans to run on July 27. A spokesperson for his office told The Herald that Norman will 'have more to say about that at the end of July' but stopped short of confirming Norman's plans.
Norman has represented South Carolina's 5th Congressional District since 2017. It covers 10 counties, including all of York, Chester and Lancaster. The 72-year-old real estate developer easily won reelection in 2024 to a two-year term in what's considered a safe district for Republicans.
Term limits prevent Gov. Henry McMaster from seeking reelection, meaning the state's top post will be up for grabs in November 2026. Longtime Attorney General Alan Wilson and State Sen. Josh Kimbrell of Spartanburg County were the first to announce their bids for the Republican nomination earlier this week.
Other high-profile Republicans believed to be gearing up for a run, but who have not yet confirmed their intention, include U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace of Charleston, State Sen. Sean Bennett of Summerville and Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette.
Political analysts say Norman could bring something different to the field, but he has ground to make up on name recognition. Here's how they think he might fare in a gubernatorial campaign.
It's tough to know with certainty how Norman might fare without a final field of candidates, said Adolphus Belk, a political analyst and professor at Winthrop University.
If candidates offer a strong contrast in their policies or ideology, Norman could carve out a position for himself relative to the others, Belk said. If the candidates are too similar to differentiate themselves on policy, it becomes a personality contest.
Belk sees 'a lot of overlap' between the current top contenders.
Scott Huffmon, a political science professor and director of the Winthrop Poll, said Norman benefits from an apparent ongoing feud between Wilson and Mace. The two have leveraged social media to hurl insults at one another.
'One of the things he'll bring to the race is, he'll come across as a calm and solid presence,' Huffmon said.
Norman also brings a more measured and traditional approach to politics, said Alex Harper, a Democrat vying for Norman's congressional seat. Harper thought he would be running against Norman when he launched his campaign. The Democrat attributes Norman's local success in part to the fact nobody has run a strong opposition campaign against him.
'I think that he's got a niche in that race. It's not a niche that I particularly enjoy,' said Harper, who works as a prosecutor at the 16th Circuit Solicitor's Office. 'Alan Wilson is obviously the top prosecutor of the state. He's going to run on law and order all day long … Nancy Mace is obsessed with bathrooms and hating liberals. That's kind of her brand, and she's well liked for that in those circles.'
Harper predicts Norman will stake his campaign instead on pro-business and small government values, which could help him stand out from what's shaping up to be a crowded pool of Republican primary candidates.
Norman has an 'enormous reputation' in York County and has built a national profile as a member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus who sticks to his beliefs and fights to convert them into policy, Belk said. He is a bona fide conservative with a record to prove it, Belk said.
Still, South Carolinians outside of his district might not know much about him.
'This field of candidates will have to fight through that general inattention to build name recognition and familiarity,' Belk said.
Evette, Wilson and other potential contenders who ran successful statewide races have a leg up in that regard. Norman must target areas with similar demographics to the voters he's performed well with in his district, Belk said.
'If he comes out strong from the gate, does the typical statewide tours, then he could make up a lot of ground in name recognition,' Huffmon said. 'And let me add, just because people are very familiar with a name does not translate to automatic support.'
Endorsements are oftentimes overplayed, Belk said, but they can prove critical under the right circumstances. Belk highlighted former Gov. Nikki Haley, for example, who entered her race with less name recognition than her competitors before winning in 2010.
She secured an endorsement from Mitt Romney, who became the 2012 Republican nominee for president, signaling to donors that her candidacy was viable. That brought money, Belk said. A second endorsement from former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin brought energy and support from social conservatives who were part of the popular Tea Party movement.
Haley enjoyed strong popularity as governor and still has considerable sway in South Carolina, Huffmon said, so landing her endorsement could bring Norman needed recognition outside of his district.
He's a likely candidate for her endorsement, too, since he threw his support behind Haley during her 2024 presidential campaign, Huffmon said.
'Ralph Norman has been a consistent supporter of Nikki Haley,' Huffmon said. 'He may be hoping to call in that favor.'
But Trump is even more popular, Belk said. His endorsement will be highly sought by the pool of candidates — many of whom have expressed ardent support for the president.