Trump wins with his Iran strikes — if they work

The Hill

4 days ago

Sometimes the most obvious take in politics is the best take. When it comes to whether Trump's strikes against Iran's nuclear weapons program works for him politically, the answer is simple. If they work and substantively impede or end Iran's nuclear ambitions, Trump wins. If they don't, Trump loses.
The initial round of polling (at the time of writing), has been generally negative on Trump's decision. More than counteracting the normal rallying around a president over military action is a combination of Trump-haters, pacifists (both left and right) and doomsday click-chasers. But when you dig deeper into the numbers, there is reason to believe that a successful action will yield significant political benefits to Trump.
Three recent polls show a generally negative reaction. The Reuters-Ipsos survey has disapproval at 45 percent versus 36 percent approval. Conducted during the attacks, the most recent YouGov poll has 46 percent opposed to 29 percent in favor. The CNN poll claims 56 disapprove against 44 percent approve.
When it comes to the aggregate 'toplines,' each of these polls need to be taken with a grain of salt. Both Ipsos and YouGov are generally Trump-negative polls with each consistently showing Trump at a lower approval than the RealClearPolitics average — and both lower than any poll in June except for Quinnipiac. YouGov clearly oversamples Democrats.
As for CNN, their polling is just terrible in my opinion. Note that in their recent polling, they claim zero undecided or 'not sure' — which is ridiculous, bordering on outright polling malpractice.
Trump's approval continues to be suppressed by Democratic voters who are implacable in their disgust for him. The YouGov crosstabs show 92 percent of Democrats unfavorable against 5 percent favorable. That disapproval suffuses everything Trump. On national security (one of Trump's strongest issues), Democrats disapprove at 80 percent while 86 percent disapprove of his handling of the Israel-Iran conflict.
Democrats have embraced a collective neurosis that the world is ending, with 65 percent (and 70 percent of liberals) thinking nuclear war is more likely and 73 percent (77 percent of liberals) thinking a world war is more likely. Rounding out the hysteria, 71 percent a global economic crash is more likely (83 percent of liberals). These percentages are only rivalled by doomscrolling Generation Z.
The real Trump polling problem is with Independents, who are also negative — just not nearly as neurotic, and relatively weak Republican support. Majorities of Independents have embraced the end-of-the-world narrative parroted by click-chasing charlatans like Tucker Carlson. Republican support, normally rock-solid for their own presidents, is softer than in the past with only 73 percent approving of Trump's handling of the Israel-Iran conflict and pluralities believing the risk of war is increasing.
For Trump, these numbers are actually a benefit. As the days tick by without a nuclear holocaust Carlson looks more and more like Chicken Little's even more panicky cousin. In fact, the ridicule has already begun.
But lame podcasters are wrong all the time. What really works for Trump is that Iran and its violent, hateful leadership are roundly despised by Americans and viewed as a threat.
Fully 59 percent of Americans think Iran's nuclear program is serious threat to the U.S., with only 26 percent demurring. All demographic and partisan groups agree with either outright majorities or pluralities. In addition, 78 percent of Americans consider Iran either 'unfriendly' or an enemy against merely 4 percent 'friendly' or an ally. Of all the demographic and partisan groups, the best Iran can do is 62 percent of Black Americans in the unfriendly/enemy camp.
And this opinion has been durable. Past YouGov polls from November 2024 and April 2024, show similarly highly negative opinions. In both polls Iran was considered 'unfriendly' or an enemy by 77 percent of Americans, including (in the November survey) 71 percent of independents, 78 percent of Democrats and 81 percent of Republicans.
Although Americans differ on the use of force, there is remarkable agreement on which countries Americans dislike. Iran and Russia trade places at the top of the list, with China not far behind. There is little partisan disagreement. Democrats are more likely to call Russia an enemy than Republicans and vice-versa for China, but antipathy is still very high.
Independents are softer across the board. However, this may be more due to disengagement from politics than any warmth for the ayatollahs, the current Russian tsar and Chairman Xi Jinping. Independents are 'not sure' about Iran at 22 percent in the latest YouGov survey, compared to 10 percent of Republicans and 20 percent of Democrats. In the November survey, 23 percent of Independents were 'not sure' as opposed to 14 percent of Republicans and 17 percent of Independents.
After miserable misadventures in Afghanistan and Iraq, and seeing the brutal carnage in Ukraine, Americans are notably hesitant about the use of military force. A big reason for the rise of Trumpian populism in the Republican Party was the bungling of the Iraq War by George W. Bush and Dick Cheney. The shambolic exit from Afghanistan by former President Joe Biden made matters worse.
As a result, Trump will have to be judicious about his use of force. The limited nature of his actions in Iran will help significantly with public opinion going forward. The problem, however, is the Iran nuclear threat itself. Trump has to resolve it once and for all. If the Iranians are able to get their nuclear program back up and running, Trump's critics will have a field day.
The bottom line for Trump as president is the same as for Trump the real estate developer — get the task done and done on time and all is well.