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The Hill
4 days ago
- Politics
- The Hill
Trump wins with his Iran strikes — if they work
Sometimes the most obvious take in politics is the best take. When it comes to whether Trump's strikes against Iran's nuclear weapons program works for him politically, the answer is simple. If they work and substantively impede or end Iran's nuclear ambitions, Trump wins. If they don't, Trump loses. The initial round of polling (at the time of writing), has been generally negative on Trump's decision. More than counteracting the normal rallying around a president over military action is a combination of Trump-haters, pacifists (both left and right) and doomsday click-chasers. But when you dig deeper into the numbers, there is reason to believe that a successful action will yield significant political benefits to Trump. Three recent polls show a generally negative reaction. The Reuters-Ipsos survey has disapproval at 45 percent versus 36 percent approval. Conducted during the attacks, the most recent YouGov poll has 46 percent opposed to 29 percent in favor. The CNN poll claims 56 disapprove against 44 percent approve. When it comes to the aggregate 'toplines,' each of these polls need to be taken with a grain of salt. Both Ipsos and YouGov are generally Trump-negative polls with each consistently showing Trump at a lower approval than the RealClearPolitics average — and both lower than any poll in June except for Quinnipiac. YouGov clearly oversamples Democrats. As for CNN, their polling is just terrible in my opinion. Note that in their recent polling, they claim zero undecided or 'not sure' — which is ridiculous, bordering on outright polling malpractice. Trump's approval continues to be suppressed by Democratic voters who are implacable in their disgust for him. The YouGov crosstabs show 92 percent of Democrats unfavorable against 5 percent favorable. That disapproval suffuses everything Trump. On national security (one of Trump's strongest issues), Democrats disapprove at 80 percent while 86 percent disapprove of his handling of the Israel-Iran conflict. Democrats have embraced a collective neurosis that the world is ending, with 65 percent (and 70 percent of liberals) thinking nuclear war is more likely and 73 percent (77 percent of liberals) thinking a world war is more likely. Rounding out the hysteria, 71 percent a global economic crash is more likely (83 percent of liberals). These percentages are only rivalled by doomscrolling Generation Z. The real Trump polling problem is with Independents, who are also negative — just not nearly as neurotic, and relatively weak Republican support. Majorities of Independents have embraced the end-of-the-world narrative parroted by click-chasing charlatans like Tucker Carlson. Republican support, normally rock-solid for their own presidents, is softer than in the past with only 73 percent approving of Trump's handling of the Israel-Iran conflict and pluralities believing the risk of war is increasing. For Trump, these numbers are actually a benefit. As the days tick by without a nuclear holocaust Carlson looks more and more like Chicken Little's even more panicky cousin. In fact, the ridicule has already begun. But lame podcasters are wrong all the time. What really works for Trump is that Iran and its violent, hateful leadership are roundly despised by Americans and viewed as a threat. Fully 59 percent of Americans think Iran's nuclear program is serious threat to the U.S., with only 26 percent demurring. All demographic and partisan groups agree with either outright majorities or pluralities. In addition, 78 percent of Americans consider Iran either 'unfriendly' or an enemy against merely 4 percent 'friendly' or an ally. Of all the demographic and partisan groups, the best Iran can do is 62 percent of Black Americans in the unfriendly/enemy camp. And this opinion has been durable. Past YouGov polls from November 2024 and April 2024, show similarly highly negative opinions. In both polls Iran was considered 'unfriendly' or an enemy by 77 percent of Americans, including (in the November survey) 71 percent of independents, 78 percent of Democrats and 81 percent of Republicans. Although Americans differ on the use of force, there is remarkable agreement on which countries Americans dislike. Iran and Russia trade places at the top of the list, with China not far behind. There is little partisan disagreement. Democrats are more likely to call Russia an enemy than Republicans and vice-versa for China, but antipathy is still very high. Independents are softer across the board. However, this may be more due to disengagement from politics than any warmth for the ayatollahs, the current Russian tsar and Chairman Xi Jinping. Independents are 'not sure' about Iran at 22 percent in the latest YouGov survey, compared to 10 percent of Republicans and 20 percent of Democrats. In the November survey, 23 percent of Independents were 'not sure' as opposed to 14 percent of Republicans and 17 percent of Independents. After miserable misadventures in Afghanistan and Iraq, and seeing the brutal carnage in Ukraine, Americans are notably hesitant about the use of military force. A big reason for the rise of Trumpian populism in the Republican Party was the bungling of the Iraq War by George W. Bush and Dick Cheney. The shambolic exit from Afghanistan by former President Joe Biden made matters worse. As a result, Trump will have to be judicious about his use of force. The limited nature of his actions in Iran will help significantly with public opinion going forward. The problem, however, is the Iran nuclear threat itself. Trump has to resolve it once and for all. If the Iranians are able to get their nuclear program back up and running, Trump's critics will have a field day. The bottom line for Trump as president is the same as for Trump the real estate developer — get the task done and done on time and all is well.
Axios
16-06-2025
- Politics
- Axios
Most Americans view Supreme Court as partisan: Poll
While Americans have conflicting opinions on the Supreme Court, a majority agree that the Trump administration must comply with federal court orders, two recent polls found. The big picture: The high court is slated to make a slew of rulings in coming weeks on issues Americans remained deeply divided on, including on judicial power, birthright citizenship and gender-affirming care for transgender youth. Zoom in: Americans are divided on their views of the Supreme Court: 55% have a strongly or somewhat favorable view of the high court, while 45% have a somewhat or strongly unfavorable view, an NBC News Decision Desk Poll poll found. There's a partisan divide in how Americans view the judicial body, per a separate Reuters-Ipsos poll: 67% of Republicans viewing the high court favorably, compared to only 26% of Democrats. Something that both sides agree on: Neither Republicans nor Democrats see the court as politically neutral, according to the Reuters poll. Between the lines: The Supreme Court in recent months has been clearing away many of the hurdles lower courts have put in President Trump's path. The court, with its 6-3 conservative majority, has three justices appointed by Trump during his first term. Still, legal battles over many aspects of his second-term agenda remain. Zoom out: The Trump administration has defied a number of court orders, particularly related to immigration policies. Americans are not on board, a NBC News Decision Desk Poll found. 81% of respondents believe the administration must follow federal court rulings and stop actions deemed illegal. Meanwhile, 19% believe the administration can ignore court rulings. Details: The Reuters-Ipsos poll, conducted June 11-12, was based on responses from 1,136 U.S. adults. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The NBC News Decision Desk Poll was conducted from May 30-June 10 among a national sample of 19,410 adults aged 18 and over. The error estimate is plus or minus 2.1 percentage points.
Yahoo
23-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Trump Isn't Even Popular on Immigration Anymore, Brutal Poll Shows
Immigration was one of Donald Trump's winning priorities with American voters, but not anymore. Three recent polls have practically spelled disaster for Trump on the issue, with Americans increasingly disapproving of the president's immigration policies amid a flurry of rushed deportations. A YouGov/Economist poll released Wednesday indicates that Americans have soured on Trump's immigration stances, with 50 percent of respondents disapproving compared to 45 percent approving. The poll comes on the heels of a Reuters-Ipsos poll published Monday that indicated that 46 percent of the country disapproved of Trump's immigration policies. And earlier this month, a Quinnipiac survey found that 50 percent of polled respondents didn't agree with Trump on immigration. During his second inaugural address in January, Trump promised to 'eliminate the presence of all foreign gangs and criminal networks bringing devastating crime to U.S. soil.' But in the months since Trump has returned to the White House, he has defied court orders, ignored the Supreme Court, and challenged the Constitution in order to advance his nativist immigration agenda. In March, the Trump administration deported more than 200 alleged members of a Venezuelan gang to El Salvador by invoking a Japanese internment–era wartime policy. That gave the administration the cover to deport the men without due process, a critical error that has only continued to mire the administration in more controversy, as it has become increasingly apparent that some members of the charged group—such as Kilmar Abrego Garcia—had never been convicted of a crime. The administration has since had to admit that it mistakenly deported Garcia, though it has simultaneously appeared unable to retrieve him from the crowded foreign prison where the government is paying El Salvador $6 million to house the alleged gang members. The YouGov/Economist poll found that 50 percent of Americans wanted Trump to bring Garcia back, while 28 percent agreed with the president's actions. The White House has said that Garcia 'will never live' in the U.S. again. 'When President Trump declared MS-13 to be a foreign terrorist organization, that meant that (Abrego Garcia) was no longer eligible, under federal law … for any form of immigration relief in the United States,' said White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller last week. Despite the White House's insistence, just 27 percent of Americans are convinced Abrego Garcia's a member of MS-13, according to the YouGov survey. In a meeting with Trump, El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele referred to a question regarding Garcia's potential release as 'preposterous.' 'How can I smuggle a terrorist into the United States?' Bukele said, claiming that he did not have the authority to return Garcia to his family in the U.S. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has pitched immigration alternatives such as the 'gold card' that seem to be little more than opportunities to sell American democracy to the 'highest bidder,' allowing America's longtime adversaries—including Russian oligarchs—to effectively buy their way into the country.
Int'l Business Times
22-04-2025
- Business
- Int'l Business Times
Trump Approval Rating Plunges From Post-Inauguration High Amid Power Tripping Concerns
Trump's approval rating is down to 42% from a 47% high after his inauguration Only 45% approve of his handling of the economy 83% of the respondents believe Trump should abide by court rulings even if he disagrees with them 59% of the surveyed said the US is beginning to lose credibility in the global stage More than half believe Trump shouldn't attempt to run for presidency a third time President Donald Trump's approval rating has plunged and his disapproval rating hasn't moved from earlier figures, a new Reuters-Ipsos poll revealed, highlighting the changing tone of American voters over the president's recent actions. Trump has been waging a global trade war in recent weeks even with multiple warnings from economic experts that it will only hurt financial markets and American consumers. Trump's Approval Rating Sees Multi-Point Dip From an approval rating of 47% in the aftermath of his inauguration in January, Trump's approval rating has dropped to 42%, which is also 1 percentage point lower than his approval rating from last month's poll. His disapproval rating remained at 53%, the same as the previous month, but is notably higher than an earlier poll at 51%. In terms of his handling of the economy, more than half of the respondents (51%) disapproved, which is at least a percentage point lower than the previous poll. On immigration, Trump's approval rating continues to slide and this time, there is a multi-point plunge from the previous poll's 48% to 45%. Americans Becoming Uncomfortable With Trump's Actions It appears more Americans are becoming uncomfortable with Trump's defiant stance over some federal court rulings. The poll revealed that some 83% of over 4,000 respondents said the U.S. president should "obey court orders he disagrees with." Trump has had run-ins with court orders in recent weeks, including over the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency's (DOGE) federal downsizing and the president's takeover of the Kennedy Center. Notably, 73% of the respondents who believed in the notion were Republicans. One of the biggest takeaways from the poll is the finding that some 59% of the respondents – a third of Republicans included – believe that the United States has started to lose credibility on the global stage. Finally, some 53% of the respondents, a majority of them Republican supporters, said the aged president should refrain from seeking a third term. The latest poll's results mirror similar sentiments in a mid-March NBC News poll that found American voters were starting to feel that the U.S. is no longer headed in the right direction under Trump. In the said poll, 53% of the respondents disapproved of Trump's foreign policies and 54% of those surveyed also disapproved of his economic decisions. Another poll last week found that more Americans trust Democrats in Congress over their GOP counterparts when it comes to handling the economy (46% to 43%).
Yahoo
13-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump Gets Brutal News From Republicans in Devastating Polls
Even though they won't come right out and say it, Republicans are proving increasingly unhappy with Donald Trump's trade war. A new Reuters-Ipsos poll out Thursday indicates that three in 10 Republicans believe the president has been 'too erratic' in carrying out his economic agenda. Meanwhile, only Trump's most ardent supporters opposed the language, with three in 10 Republicans telling the pollster that they 'strongly disagreed' that Trump was too erratic. And a CNN poll published Wednesday showed that one in five people who voted for Trump in 2024 disapproved of how the 78-year-old has implemented his tariff plan, as did 24 percent of Republican-leaning voters. Another study by Center Forward, a nonpartisan nonprofit, found that some Trump voters felt the president was ignoring key issues such as the economy. 'What's striking is that voters from across the political spectrum—Republicans, Democrats and independents alike—are all demanding that the administration tackle inflation and rising living costs. Many feel these kitchen-table issues aren't getting the attention they deserve,' Bob Torongo, executive vice president of the Democratic research firm Breakthrough Campaigns, told The Washington Post Thursday. Trump has admitted that his tariffs will destabilize the economy. During an interview with Fox Business's Maria Bartiromo that aired Sunday, Trump dodged a question on whether the country would dive headlong into a recession, sending stock indexes reeling. He also floated that the 'little disruption' caused by his aggressive trade policies could go on for quite a bit longer, suggesting that Americans should model their economic projections on a 100-year-model—like China—rather than assess his performance on a quarterly basis. The market, in turn, has tumbled as Trump's trade war sparks fears of a forthcoming recession. Last week, the Dow dropped 670 points. This week, the slump continued, reacting to Trump's 25 percent levy on all steel and aluminum imports, and the retaliatory tariffs slapped on American goods by countries around the globe in protest. Trump further failed to assuage economic fears during a press conference at the White House on Thursday, offering no clear path forward for small businesses amid his whiplash tariff proposals.
