High winds to hike wildfire threat later this week with southern Plains as epicenter
The same storm destined to bring feet of snow to the Sierra Nevada and inches of rain to some low elevations in California will trigger a severe weather outbreak over the Central states late this week. As the storm grows in size and strengthens, the wind field will expand.
By Friday, winds can gust to over 40 mph anywhere from the Intermountain West to the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. Gusts in some areas can reach hurricane force (75 mph), outside of severe thunderstorms. The AccuWeather StormMax™ wind gust for this event is 85 mph.
On the colder side of the storm, from the central Rockies to the northern Plains, the winds will whip falling snow around and may create blizzard conditions.
Farther south, as the winds kick up from Arizona to western Texas and western Oklahoma, they will pick up dust that can create dangerous dust storms. The risk of high-profile vehicle roll-overs due to crosswinds can accompany the drastic drop in visibility.
Dust from the Southwest states can be blown as far east as the Great Lakes and Atlantic coast by the weekend.
The greatest risk to lives and property will be from fast-moving wildfires. The combination of dry brush, warm and dry air and high winds can allow any sparks from utility lines or power equipment to ignite a blaze that can be extremely fast-moving and difficult to control.Have the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+
This risk will begin to ramp up on Wednesday and reach a peak on Friday before easing back this weekend.
"Friday's wildfire risk covers a large part of the southern Rockies and High Plains and is forecast to reach extreme levels from northwestern Texas to southwestern Oklahoma," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg said. "This is about as an extreme event as there can be."
Due to the vast storm system late this week, the risk of wildfires will increase anywhere there is dry brush and gusty winds, from the Rockies to the Appalachians.
Extreme caution should be taken when using outdoor power equipment, open flames and outdoor grills. In some cases, the hot exhaust system can ignite the brush beneath vehicles. In windy conditions, brush can become dry enough to catch fire just a day or two after a soaking rain.
Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.
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Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Yahoo
NHC still watching system near Florida. Sarasota, Bradenton impact for July 4th weekend
The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a disturbance expected to stall off the southeast coast of the U.S. late this week, which could affect your Fourth of July weekend in Sarasota and Manatee County. As of 2 p.m. on Jul. 1, chances for development over the next seven days are 30%. Warm waters along the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts could provide the fuel necessary for development of a tropical depression or tropical storm around or just after July 4, AccuWeather said. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location Regardless of tropical cyclone development, showers and thunderstorms could spoil your holiday weekend at the beach. The next named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Chantal. "Development may be a bit more likely on the Gulf side, as opposed to the Atlantic side of Florida, but at this point the entire zone is being watched," DaSilva said, "At this time we feel the development window is from around July 4 to early next week." "A frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast U.S. coast late this week," the National Hurricane Center said at 2 p.m. "An area of low pressure could develop from the weakening front by the weekend over the Atlantic waters off the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf. "Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low drifts and moves little. "Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida coast." Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30 percent. "A cold front will dive off the coast late this week, and it may act as a catalyst for development either in the eastern Gulf or off the Southeast coast," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert. "Wind shear, which can inhibit development, is expected to be fairly low and ocean water temperatures in the Gulf are above average which can aid in development in the outlooked area." "Should clustering of thunderstorms and lowering pressure develop enough spin around a center with winds of 35-38 mph, a tropical depression may be born. Waters are warm enough (80 or higher) to allow and sustain tropical development," according to AccuWeather. "This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 5-7 days; however, this system could bring locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and an increased rip current risk along the Gulf or Atlantic Coast later this week and will continue to be monitored closely," the Florida Department of Emergency Management said. "Those heading to the beaches for the holiday weekend from northern Florida and the Alabama and Mississippi panhandles to the Carolinas are urged to monitor the forecast, as there may be rough surf and rip currents and perhaps gusty winds should a tropical depression or storm develop," DaSilva said. Factors helping prevent tropical development include wind shear and dry air, including Saharan dust moving across the Atlantic and into the Gulf. The Fourth of July holiday weekend forecast for Sarasota and Manatee counties from the National Weather Service in Miami as of July 1, 2025: Sarasota County July 4: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Light southwest wind increasing to 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday night, scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 30%. July 5: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Light and variable wind becoming south southwest 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Saturday night, scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Chance of precipitation is 40%. July 6: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday night, showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Manatee County July 4: Day Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Southwest wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday night, scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2 am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. West southwest wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 30%. July 5: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 pm. High near 91. East wind 5 to 7 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Saturday night, showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 8 pm. Low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 80%. July 6: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday night, showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 60%. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said. The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories. The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center. Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include: Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin. To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi. Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated: : for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific. : for storms in the Northwest Pacific. : for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean. Download your local site's app to stay connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: NOAA tracking system near Florida: Sarasota July 4th weekend forecast
Yahoo
7 hours ago
- Yahoo
In a word, wet. What's ahead for much of Florida through Fourth of July holiday
"Wet." That's the one-word description the National Weather Service Melbourne used to describe what east-central Florida can expect through the Fourth of July. And that's even if a system dropping into the southeastern United States and Florida doesn't spin into a tropical depression or tropical storm, which as of July 1, it currently has a low chance — 30% — of doing. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location "Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low drifts and moves little," the National Hurricane Center said at 2 p.m. July 1. "Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida coast." What happens over the holiday weekend all depends on where, how or if that system develops, although there is "pretty good agreement for the unsettled pattern and flooding potential to continue through the weekend." If the right conditions are there, they could "potentially ignite tropical development," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert in an email Monday, June 30. "This is fairly common this time of the year, June and July, that you get old frontal boundaries kind of coming off the southeast coast and into the Gulf and stalling. And then you get a little area of spin to develop along that decaying cold front, and then that's how you get these usually fairly short-lived tropical systems early in the season. "They tend to be a little on the weaker side, but they can bring a lot of rain, especially if they do develop. I think that's what we might end up seeing here." "A frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast U.S. coast late this week. An area of low pressure could develop from the weakening front by the weekend over the Atlantic waters off the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf," the National Hurricane Center said. "Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low drifts and moves little." ➤ National Hurricane Center tracking system that could stall over Florida Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30 percent. "A cold front will dive off the coast late this week, and it may act as a catalyst for development either in the eastern Gulf or off the Southeast coast," DaSilva said. "The Fourth of July looks pretty wet overall for the state of Florida, especially the peninsula," DaSilva said. "This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next five to seven days," the Florida Department of Emergency Management said. "However, this system could bring increased shower and thunderstorm activity and an increased rip current risk along the Gulf or Atlantic Coast later this week and will continue to be monitored closely. "Regardless of tropical development, local flooding rain risk remains into the weekend. Daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected. ... with a potential for flash flooding, the National Weather Service Jacksonville posted on X. "Models disagree on this exact point about where tropical development could occur," according to the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network. "The American model depicts a very broad, yet undefined, center of circulation. This wide area of low pressure would form west of Florida over the eastern Gulf. "The European model shows a low-pressure system remaining east of Florida, approximately 200 miles east of Cape Canaveral. "These two models represent two very different scenarios; they could produce opposite results regarding the weather for the holiday weekend in Florida," Florida Public Radio Emergency Network said. "If the American model verifies and a storm develops over the Gulf, there could be increased rainfall activity for the Florida peninsula during the holiday weekend. If the European model is confirmed, conditions are likely to remain drier than normal for the July 4th weekend." "If tropical system does eventually develop east of Florida or south of the Carolinas, steering currents are light, so it could well linger near the Gulf Stream into next week," said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger. "Dry air and some northerly wind shear would most likely keep anything that develops weak." Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network. "For Florida's sake, it would be better for it to happen east of Florida because then it would likely just get pushed out to sea. "If it happens in the Gulf, it's likely to be pushed eastward into Florida, although there are some indications that, depending on the strength of the Bermuda High, it could actually push the storm a little farther west, maybe towards Louisiana. I think that's a fairly low chance right now," DaSilva said. "I think the most likely would it be just pushed east into Florida. But that's something that we would have to watch for as well." The system moving east over the U.S. could "ignite" a tropical system, the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network said. Even if there is no tropical development, expect plenty of rain this week and into the holiday weekend across Florida, DaSilva said. "We must continue to monitor the progress of the frontal system, which will inject and deliver sufficient energy near Florida. At this point, it is impossible to know precisely where, and if, a storm could form," Florida Public Radio Emergency Network said. "Expected rainfall totals over the five days across most of Florida and the eastern Gulf Coast are in the 2-4' range, with locally higher accumulations and slight chances of localized flash flooding. North Florida rain chances will decline in a few days, but the Florida peninsula will see elevated rain coverage through the weekend," Truchelut said. Here's the forecast around Florida for the holiday weekend: , western Panhandle: July 4th: High 92 Saturday: High 91; rain chances 30% Sunday: High 90; rain chances 50% , central Panhandle: July 4th: High 94; rain chances 50% Saturday: High 92; rain chances 40% Sunday: High 90; rain chances 50% Jacksonville, North Florida: July 4th: High 90; rain chances 60% Saturday: High 89; rain chances 60% Sunday: High 89; rain chances 70% to east-central Florida: July 4th: High 88; rain chances 70% Saturday: High 86; rain chances 70% Sunday: High 87; rain chances 70% West Palm Beach to , South Florida: July 4th: High 84; rain chances 70% Saturday: High 83; rain chances 70% Sunday: High 84; rain chances 60% to , Southwest Florida: July 4th: High 85; rain chances 70% Saturday: High 86; rain chances 70% Sunday: High 86; rain chances 70% Heading to one of the central Florida theme parks? Here's your forecast for Orlando: July 4: High 89; rain chances 80% Saturday: High 88; rain chances 80% Sunday: High 89; rain chances 70% The average date for the third named storm in the Atlantic basin is Aug. 3, DaSilva said. Andrea, the first named storm of the season formed a little later than average, on June 24, four days past the average date of June 20 for the first named storm of the season. Barry formed June 29, well ahead of the historical average of July 17. Water temperatures in the Gulf would support tropical development, but wind shear and some dry air from Saharan dust would work against tropical development, DaSilva said. "We don't anticipate this blowing up into a hurricane. If it develops, it's likely to be a tropical depression or a tropical storm, which could enhance the rainfall across Florida." "Most of the time, 'homegrown' storms tend to be on the weaker side in terms of wind speed, but a lot of times they tend to be big rainmakers," DaSilva said. "They also give people less time to react because they form closer to the coast. You don't have the luxury of watching it come across the entirety of the Atlantic. We're urging people to follow the forecast updates closely over the next couple of days. "It's possible that nothing develops at all and it just happens to be a wetter weekend. But there is also the possibility that we might end up with a tropical depression or a tropical storm, and it can really enhance the rainfall, and we could have some flooding issues. "There isn't enough time. If anything develops, it would only be over the water for a day or two before pushing inland if it develops in the eastern Gulf." National Weather Service Mobile on X, formerly known as Twitter National Weather Service Tallahassee on X, formerly known as Twitter National Weather Service Jacksonville on X, formerly known as Twitter National Weather Service Melbourne on X, formerly known as Twitter National Weather Service Miami on X, formerly known as Twitter National Weather Service Tampa Bay on X, formerly known as Twitter We will continue to update our weather coverage as conditions warrant. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This story was updated to add new information. This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Rain on Fourth of July 2025? What's ahead for Florida this weekend
Newsweek
8 hours ago
- Newsweek
Potential Tropical Storm Chantal Update as Chances at Forming Rise
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Chances that Tropical Storm Chantal will form near Florida within the next week have risen by 10 percent. The disturbance could strengthen into the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season this weekend. Even if it doesn't, AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek it will dampen Fourth of July celebrations across the state with rain. Why It Matters If it forms, Tropical Storm Chantal will be the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1. The first storm, Tropical Storm Andrea, formed last week and caused no U.S.-related impacts. Tropical Storm Barry formed in the Bay of Campeche over the weekend and impacted Eastern Mexico. What to Know As of the most recent update from the National Hurricane Center, the disturbance now has a 30 percent chance of forming in the next seven days. On Monday, the chances were at 20 percent. Chances of formation in the next 48 hours remain near zero. A map from the NHC shows where meteorologists are monitoring for the next possible tropical system. A map from the NHC shows where meteorologists are monitoring for the next possible tropical system. National Hurricane Center Thirty percent is still considered low according to the NHC. DaSilva said AccuWeather has been tracking the system for several days. It remains unclear which side of Florida it will develop on. Although it is unlikely to undergo rapid intensification or become a hurricane, ocean temperatures are warm enough to support tropical development, DaSilva said. Saharan dust could impede the storm's development, as tropical systems prefer moist air. Even if it doesn't strengthen into a named storm, it will bring rain across most of Florida over the holiday weekend. Rip currents also could pose a danger to any beachgoers. Systems that form close to the U.S. this time of year are known as homegrown development, DaSilva said. During this time of year, frontal boundaries often stall in the area and then can undergo further development into a tropical system. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration anticipates that 13 to 19 named storms will form during this year's Atlantic hurricane season, with six to 10 strengthening into hurricanes and three to five strengthening into major hurricanes. What People Are Saying NHC in a recent update about the disturbance: "A frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast U.S. coast late this week. An area of low pressure could develop from the weakening front by the weekend over the Atlantic waters off the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf. Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low drifts and moves little." DaSilva said in an AccuWeather report: "At this point the entire zone is being watched, from the northeastern Gulf to waters along the southern Atlantic coast of the U.S. At this time we feel the development window is from around July 4 to early next week." What Happens Next It remains unclear which side of the state the storm will develop on, but experts are monitoring the Gulf and Atlantic waters southeast of Florida for the storm. As development continues, more updates will be issued.
