Potential Tropical Storm Chantal Update as Chances at Forming Rise
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Chances that Tropical Storm Chantal will form near Florida within the next week have risen by 10 percent.
The disturbance could strengthen into the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season this weekend. Even if it doesn't, AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek it will dampen Fourth of July celebrations across the state with rain.
Why It Matters
If it forms, Tropical Storm Chantal will be the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1. The first storm, Tropical Storm Andrea, formed last week and caused no U.S.-related impacts. Tropical Storm Barry formed in the Bay of Campeche over the weekend and impacted Eastern Mexico.
What to Know
As of the most recent update from the National Hurricane Center, the disturbance now has a 30 percent chance of forming in the next seven days. On Monday, the chances were at 20 percent. Chances of formation in the next 48 hours remain near zero.
A map from the NHC shows where meteorologists are monitoring for the next possible tropical system.
A map from the NHC shows where meteorologists are monitoring for the next possible tropical system.
National Hurricane Center
Thirty percent is still considered low according to the NHC. DaSilva said AccuWeather has been tracking the system for several days. It remains unclear which side of Florida it will develop on.
Although it is unlikely to undergo rapid intensification or become a hurricane, ocean temperatures are warm enough to support tropical development, DaSilva said. Saharan dust could impede the storm's development, as tropical systems prefer moist air.
Even if it doesn't strengthen into a named storm, it will bring rain across most of Florida over the holiday weekend. Rip currents also could pose a danger to any beachgoers.
Systems that form close to the U.S. this time of year are known as homegrown development, DaSilva said. During this time of year, frontal boundaries often stall in the area and then can undergo further development into a tropical system.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration anticipates that 13 to 19 named storms will form during this year's Atlantic hurricane season, with six to 10 strengthening into hurricanes and three to five strengthening into major hurricanes.
What People Are Saying
NHC in a recent update about the disturbance: "A frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast U.S. coast late this week. An area of low pressure could develop from the weakening front by the weekend over the Atlantic waters off the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf. Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low drifts and moves little."
DaSilva said in an AccuWeather report: "At this point the entire zone is being watched, from the northeastern Gulf to waters along the southern Atlantic coast of the U.S. At this time we feel the development window is from around July 4 to early next week."
What Happens Next
It remains unclear which side of the state the storm will develop on, but experts are monitoring the Gulf and Atlantic waters southeast of Florida for the storm. As development continues, more updates will be issued.
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