Weather Bee: First half of 2025 likely to breach 1.5°C warming threshold
Global temperature data from the ERA5 dataset produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is now available up to June 23. With just a week of data to be factored in for June, the trends for half of the year seen right now should not change by a big margin by the end of the month. This shows that the average warming in the first 174 days of 2025 is 1.53°C. This makes the first half of the year the second warmest on record in 2025, after 2024, which experienced 1.62°C in the first 174 days. 2025 is also only the second year when the first half of the year has breached the 1.5°C threshold. Chart 1 HT photo
To be sure, while the first six months of the year average a warming of more than 1.5°C, this is because of the warming up to April. All of the first four months of 2025 averaged a warming of more than 1.5°C, but May averaged a warming of 1.39°C and June so far is only 1.31°C warmer than the pre-industrial average. If the trends seen so far carry on until the month's end, June will only be only the second consecutive month and third month since July 2023 (apart from July 2024 and May 2025) that does not average a warming of more than 1.5°C.
The level of warming in May and June, however, should not be taken as a sign that the world is still far away from breaching the 1.5°C threshold in long-term averages. The reason for this is the recent trend in global warming. The 2015-2024 averages of warming in each month show that June warming was the least and May warming is ranked fourth lowest. In fact, as the accompanying chart shows, warming has been generally lower in the middle of the year, when the northern hemisphere experiences its summer. May, June, and July are also the only months that have crossed the 1.5°C threshold only once (either in 2023 or 2024). Chart 2 HT photo
Clearly, the lower level of warming in May and June is not out of the ordinary in a world headed towards long-term 1.5°C warming. In fact, even the rest of the year needs to average only 1.47°C for 2025 to breach the threshold on average. For becoming the second-warmest year on record – a record currently held by 2023, which averaged 1.48°C warming in the ERA5 dataset – the rest of the year needs to average a warming of only 1.44°C.
However, May and June averaging a warming below 1.5°C has helped in one way. An unprecedented 1.66°C warming will be required in the rest of the year for 2025 to beat the 2024 record and become the warmest year on record. The previous record for the June 24-December 31 period is currently held by 2023, when the period averaged 1.65°C warming.
The lower level of warming in May is also why the probability for 2025 ending up as the warmest year on record was drastically decreased by Berkeley Earth (another organization that publishes a global temperature dataset updated monthly) in their May update compared to their April update: from 18% to 6%. However, Berkeley's earth forecast for the year ending up 1.5°C warmer in their record is still 43%, a relatively small reduction compared to the 52% forecast in the April update. This is why the global temperature trends in the first half of the year are a mixed bag.
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Hindustan Times
26-06-2025
- Hindustan Times
Weather Bee: First half of 2025 likely to breach 1.5°C warming threshold
With data for nearly half of 2025 in, there is both good news and bad news for global temperature. The bad news is that the first half of the year is the second warmest in 2025 and more than 1.5°C warmer than the pre-industrial average, a threshold that global leaders agreed to keep long-term warming under in the 2015 Paris Agreement. The good news is that June warming is likely to end up below the 1.5°C threshold, the second consecutive month to do so. This is likely to keep the probability of 2025 ending as the warmest year lower than it was earlier in the year. PREMIUM File photo Global temperature data from the ERA5 dataset produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is now available up to June 23. With just a week of data to be factored in for June, the trends for half of the year seen right now should not change by a big margin by the end of the month. This shows that the average warming in the first 174 days of 2025 is 1.53°C. This makes the first half of the year the second warmest on record in 2025, after 2024, which experienced 1.62°C in the first 174 days. 2025 is also only the second year when the first half of the year has breached the 1.5°C threshold. Chart 1 HT photo To be sure, while the first six months of the year average a warming of more than 1.5°C, this is because of the warming up to April. All of the first four months of 2025 averaged a warming of more than 1.5°C, but May averaged a warming of 1.39°C and June so far is only 1.31°C warmer than the pre-industrial average. If the trends seen so far carry on until the month's end, June will only be only the second consecutive month and third month since July 2023 (apart from July 2024 and May 2025) that does not average a warming of more than 1.5°C. The level of warming in May and June, however, should not be taken as a sign that the world is still far away from breaching the 1.5°C threshold in long-term averages. The reason for this is the recent trend in global warming. The 2015-2024 averages of warming in each month show that June warming was the least and May warming is ranked fourth lowest. In fact, as the accompanying chart shows, warming has been generally lower in the middle of the year, when the northern hemisphere experiences its summer. May, June, and July are also the only months that have crossed the 1.5°C threshold only once (either in 2023 or 2024). Chart 2 HT photo Clearly, the lower level of warming in May and June is not out of the ordinary in a world headed towards long-term 1.5°C warming. In fact, even the rest of the year needs to average only 1.47°C for 2025 to breach the threshold on average. For becoming the second-warmest year on record – a record currently held by 2023, which averaged 1.48°C warming in the ERA5 dataset – the rest of the year needs to average a warming of only 1.44°C. However, May and June averaging a warming below 1.5°C has helped in one way. An unprecedented 1.66°C warming will be required in the rest of the year for 2025 to beat the 2024 record and become the warmest year on record. The previous record for the June 24-December 31 period is currently held by 2023, when the period averaged 1.65°C warming. The lower level of warming in May is also why the probability for 2025 ending up as the warmest year on record was drastically decreased by Berkeley Earth (another organization that publishes a global temperature dataset updated monthly) in their May update compared to their April update: from 18% to 6%. However, Berkeley's earth forecast for the year ending up 1.5°C warmer in their record is still 43%, a relatively small reduction compared to the 52% forecast in the April update. This is why the global temperature trends in the first half of the year are a mixed bag.
Time of India
21-06-2025
- Time of India
Paris climate target ‘will never die', remains world's ultimate goal: Researchers
BATHINDA: The world's expected passing of the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit during this decade raises pressure for countries to submit bold emissions reduction plans before COP30 in November, two researchers have warned. Prof Joeri Rogelj and Lavanya Rajamani, in a paper published in Science, argues that determining precisely when the world crosses 1.5°C is not necessary, because the decisions needed in response – reduce emissions rapidly in the near term – are already clear and do not suddenly change at that point. Instead, getting closer to 1.5°C should be a wake-up call for the world to focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions this decade to limit the amount of warming the world experiences past 1.5°C to protect vulnerable groups, they say adding in the longer term reversing warming and getting below 1.5°C must be the goal. The paper follows the hottest year ever on record, commentary that the 1.5°C target is 'deader than a doornail' and the fact that only 21 out of 195 countries that signed the Paris Agreement have thus far submitted new five-year emissions reduction plans. Warming above 1.5°C greatly increases climate risks, including dangerous sea level rise, the collapse of coral reefs, the loss of the Greenland ice sheet and the dieback of the Amazon rainforest. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Ductless Air Conditioners Are Selling Like Crazy [See Why] Keep Cool Click Here Undo Key arguments in the paper includes: Approaching or exceeding 1.5°C of warming does not extinguish the Paris Agreement's ambitious goal but makes urgent climate action even more important. The exact timing of when the world crosses 1.5°C is less important than sustained efforts to cut emissions. The Paris Agreement remains vital as a global framework to guide emissions cuts and adaptation efforts, despite geopolitical challenges. Professor Rogelj, Director of Research at the Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment, said: '1.5°C of warming is just around the corner and it will take a herculean effort to avoid it. 'This is deeply concerning, but crossing it makes the target more important because every fraction of warming – whether it is 1.6, 2 or 3°C – creates a more dangerous world and the longer we stay above 1.5°C, the higher the losses and damages for people will be. 'The key message of our paper is that 1.5°C will never die. It will remain our ultimate goal for a safe, livable and just planet. We need to remember that reversing warming is not a new goal, but already a key aim of the Paris Agreement.' The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to keep warming 'well below 2°C' and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. Small island states proposed the 1.5°C target in the late 2000s as a matter of survival – '1.5 to stay alive' – and since 2015, it has become the immediate goal in the fight to tackle climate change. However, the world is not currently on track to keeping warming below the Paris Agreement targets. Most countries are still burning large amounts of fossil fuels, which release emissions that cause the climate to warm. Global warming is expected to exceed 1.5°C before the end of the decade, near 2°C by 2050, and rise to between 2.6°C and 3.1°C over the course of the century. These projections have resulted in commentary that 1.5°C is 'dead' and calls from some researchers to determine the precise timing of when 1.5°C is crossed. Professors Rogelj and Rajamani argue that exceeding 1.5°C does not mean abandoning the goal or triggering a specific policy shift for emissions reductions or adaptation needs but working harder to limit overshoot – the amount of warming experienced above 1.5°C . Their paper emphasises the need for countries to act with the highest ambition possible to bring emissions down to zero, achieve net-negative emissions, and get warming back below 1.5°C in the long-term. They note that even in a world that has crossed 1.5°C, countries and businesses can continue to follow emission pathways aligned with the target. The Paris Agreement remains the most important international tool for tackling climate change, particularly due to its requirement that countries submit plans to cut emissions every five years, the researchers say. While the deadline has been extended until September, just 21 of 195 countries signed up to the Paris Agreement have submitted their plan, known as a Nationally Determined Contribution or NDC. NDCs with the highest possible cuts to emissions will reduce the amount of time the world spends above 1.5°C and reduce harm to human life and ecosystems, the researchers say. Professor Lavanya Rajamani, Faculty of Law, University of Oxford, said: 'We want to reframe the way people talk about 1.5°C. Approaching or even surpassing it is a warning signal that states need to redouble their efforts, not to throw up their hands and declare 1.5°C 'over' or 'dead.' 'We need to stay focused on keeping warming below 1.5°C in the long term, and avoiding the worst impacts of climate change for people and the planet.' 'Our position is supported by a growing body of scientific evidence, the terms of the Paris Agreement, and the wider normative environment, including human rights obligations, that states are subject to.' Professor Rogelj, Director of Research at the Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment, said: 'There is no such thing as a safe level of warming. 'Even below 1.5°C we see dangerous climate change. Devastating weather disasters in 2024 really made that clear – just think of the Valencia floods, Hajj heatwave and Hurricane Helene which collectively killed more than 1,500 people. 'Every tonne of carbon emitted and every fraction of a degree counts. That's why we need to see bold NDCs before the COP30 climate summit in November that deliver meaningful emissions reductions before the end of the decade. A focus on near-term reductions is key to limiting the harms that come with warming above 1.5°C.'
Time of India
20-06-2025
- Time of India
Time is running out to save the planet, says report. Scientists reveal alarming countdown in new study
Only 130 Billion Tonnes of CO2 Left in Budget Extreme Events and Rising Seas Human Activity Behind Most of the Warming The window to limit global warming to 1.5°C is closing rapidly, and the world has just three years left at current emission levels to prevent breaching that critical threshold, according to a major new scientific report. Over 60 leading climate scientists from around the globe have contributed to the latest annual Indicators of Global Climate Change study, which paints a sobering picture of the planet's current state and the Paris Agreement of 2015, nearly 200 nations have pledged to restrict global temperature rise to within 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. But continued reliance on fossil fuels and high levels of carbon emissions are putting that goal in serious concept of a " carbon budget " helps estimate how much more carbon dioxide (CO2) can be emitted before reaching specific warming thresholds. In 2020, scientists estimated that about 500 billion tonnes of CO2 remained in the global budget to stay within 1.5°C. As of 2025, that budget has shrunk to just 130 billion the current pace of around 40 billion tonnes of emissions per year, that budget will be used up in just over three years. If the world fails to curb emissions drastically, it will be almost impossible to avoid surpassing the 1.5°C threshold. Scientists also warn that the carbon budgets for 1.6°C and 1.7°C would be exhausted within nine years if current trends effects of human-driven climate change are already visible. From record-breaking temperatures, like the UK's 40°C summer in 2022, to faster-than-expected sea-level rise, climate extremes are becoming the new normal. Researchers point out that the rate of warming—currently around 0.27°C per decade—is higher than any period in geological of the excess heat generated by greenhouse gas emissions is being absorbed by the oceans. This not only warms ocean waters but contributes to sea-level rise due to both thermal expansion and melting glaciers. The rate of global sea-level rise has doubled since the 1990s, placing coastal populations at growing risk of flooding and report attributes nearly all of the recent temperature increase to human activity, with natural factors playing a minimal role. For instance, in 2024, global temperatures reached 1.52°C above pre-industrial averages. Although a single year does not constitute a breach of the Paris Agreement, which measures long-term averages, the data underscores how close the world is to crossing the emphasize that every fraction of a degree matters. Even a 0.1°C rise can significantly increase the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, affect food security, and strain ecosystems. Scientists caution against relying on future technologies to reverse warming, as the scale of CO2 removal required may not be achievable or Cuts NeededProfessor Joeri Rogelj of Imperial College London notes that decisions made over the next decade will shape the Earth's climate for generations. While exceeding 1.5°C is increasingly likely, swift reductions in emissions can still limit the extent of warming and prevent crossing into more dangerous path forward is clear: without substantial and immediate action, the opportunity to meet the targets set out in the Paris Agreement will slip away—possibly within just three years.
