Powassan to advance Trout Creek Community Centre repairs
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Global News
3 minutes ago
- Global News
How Canada-U.S. trade talks could shape the potential recession risk
As the deadline looms for a new trade deal between Canada and the U.S., economists say what the deal contains could determine a key possibility — how bad a potential recession could be. On Monday, Prime Minister Mark Carney said he would only sign a deal that was 'a good deal for Canada' and that 'negotiations are at an intense phase' towards a new trade deal with the U.S. If one isn't reached by Aug. 1, U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to hit Canada with more tariffs of 35 per cent. At the same time, economists are watching closely for the risk of a recession. 'We are so far sticking to a view that we see a very shallow technical recession in Canada for the second quarter, third quarter. Very mild contraction,' said Sal Guatieri, director and senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. Story continues below advertisement However, that depends on one key caveat. 1:57 'Trump ate von der Leyen for breakfast': EU leaders react to 'unbalanced' trade deal with US 'That assumes we do work out a trade deal with the U.S. and it keeps that average effective tariff rate close to six per cent (and) does not pile on too many new sectoral duties in the months ahead,' he added. Get daily National news Get the day's top news, political, economic, and current affairs headlines, delivered to your inbox once a day. Sign up for daily National newsletter Sign Up By providing your email address, you have read and agree to Global News' Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy With a six per cent effective tariff rate, Canada's economy could potentially start recovering by the end of the year, Guatieri said. 'It does hurt, but it's manageable and something that Canadian businesses ultimately could adjust to and live with.' The reason the effective tariff rate on Canada is relatively low, at six per cent, is that goods that comply with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) were exempt from Trump's broad-based tariffs back in April. Story continues below advertisement Not everyone agrees that a recession is likely, either. 'We don't have a recessionary outlook again for later this year. If CUSMA exemptions do hold, which is what we're expecting right now, we don't expect there will be significant changes to the outlook either,' said Claire Fan, senior economist at RBC. 3:32 'It may seem like it's a long way (off)': Carney says Canada needs 'right' trade deal with U.S. While Canada is expecting a trade deal with some tariffs, Fan said CUSMA exemptions might help Canada avoid a worst-case scenario economic downturn since it puts it ahead of the U.S.'s other major trade partners. 'It reflects a comparative advantage as a key exporter to the United States. It's not so much about the exemptions themselves, but more so what it means for Canadian exporters relative to, let's say, exporters from Europe or from one of the other major U.S. trade partners,' she said. Story continues below advertisement If the status quo holds, Fan expects that the 'bulk of the damage is already done' to Canada's labour market. However, if Trump's tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum and automobiles continue after Friday, those sectors could see further losses. 'It's a blow for the auto industry (and to) steel and aluminum. There will be some pain there, maybe further layoffs. But for the overall economy and other industries, it is a manageable tariff to absorb, Guatieri said. 4:59 Canada – U.S. trade negotiations ahead of deadline 'We are seeing very pronounced damage in sectors where you would expect damage to be showing up. These are largely very trade-exposed sectors. Manufacturing is one, and a lot of the related sectors, for example, warehousing and transportation,' Fan said. So far, the damage from tariffs has been most heavily localized in southern Ontario and Quebec, Fan said. Story continues below advertisement 'If you were to look at the unemployment rate in southern Ontario, it's approaching 10 to 11 per cent in Windsor and is really elevated in other parts like Peterborough as well. In Toronto, too, which is above where the national average is,' she said. If CUSMA exemptions hold, Guatieri expects much of the country to escape the worst effects of Trump's trade war. 'We think most of the rest of the country is somewhat insulated from this trade war. Unfortunately, Ontario and Quebec are not,' he said.
Cision Canada
3 minutes ago
- Cision Canada
Readout - Prime Minister Carney speaks with Prime Minister of Singapore Lawrence Wong Français
OTTAWA, ON, July 29, 2025 /CNW/ - Today, the Prime Minister, Mark Carney, spoke with the Prime Minister of Singapore, Lawrence Wong. In the face of shifting global trade and economic uncertainty, the leaders acknowledged the 60-year diplomatic relationship between the two countries and discussed boosting co-operation, noting the growing opportunities through the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). The prime ministers discussed increasing trade and investment, particularly in the agri-food and nuclear energy sectors. Prime Minister Carney and Prime Minister Wong welcomed progress toward a Canada-ASEAN free trade agreement and look forward to meeting at the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia in October.
an hour ago
Why Trump's deals with the EU, Japan may not be templates for Canada in trade talks
U.S. President Donald Trump's successive announcements of deals setting baseline tariffs on the European Union and Japan are prompting questions about whether they're a road map for Canada to follow in trade talks. Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described the bones of an agreement (new window) on Sunday. It sets across-the-board tariffs of 15 per cent on most European Union exports to the United States, along with a commitment by Europe to invest $600 billion US in the American economy and spend $750 billion on U.S. energy products — although there's plenty of fine print still to come. That makes it broadly comparable to the deal Trump announced last week with Japan (new window) : a 15 per cent across-the-board tariff and a Japanese commitment to invest $550 billion in the U.S. Trump was threatening to hit Europe with 30 per cent baseline tariffs and Japan with 25 per cent on Aug. 1, so both trading blocs are selling the deals as wins. Because Canada is facing the threat of 35 per cent tariffs on some goods on the same date, does that mean Canada should be aiming for a similar agreement? Prime Minister Mark Carney certainly isn't saying so. Asked whether any forthcoming deal will be in the ballpark of those 15 per cent baseline tariffs, he emphasized the differences between Europe's and Canada's trading relationship with the U.S. We are in a different position, and that is why these negotiations ... are different, Carney said on Monday, citing Canada's geographical closeness and energy exports to the U.S. Europe, in that agreement yesterday, made commitments to buy American energy, he said at a news conference in Prince Edward Island. America needs Canadian energy. WATCH | Canada's trade talks with the U.S. are different from Europe's, Carney says: Across-the-board tariffs 'difficult for Canada to accept' There are plenty of reasons why a 15 per cent baseline tariff rate is not something for Canada to aspire to, given that its economy is proportionally far more dependent on the U.S. market than Europe's and Japan's are. Jonathan O'Hara, an international trade lawyer in the Ottawa law office of McMillan LLP, said Canada should set its sights on a better deal than the EU or Japan negotiated since it's already so tightly integrated with the American economy. On a broad level, having some kind of across-the-board tariffs, I think, would be very difficult for Canada to accept, O'Hara said in a weekend interview with CBC News. WATCH | Here's what's in Trump's tariff deal with the EU: Yet it appears that Canada doesn't actually face the prospect of tariffs that are truly across-the-board. That's because it has something that neither the European Union nor Japan have: an actual free-trade deal. Trump's fentanyl emergency tariffs, currently set at 25 per cent — which he's threatening to raise to 35 per cent on Friday — hit only those goods that don't comply with the rules of origin in the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). That means the vast bulk of Canada's exports to the U.S. (new window) are currently crossing the border tariff-free. Steel and aluminum tariffs a big question That may be why Carney's Liberal government does not feel the same sort of pressure as Europe and Japan to get a deal on Trump's timeline, said Drew Fagan, a professor at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy. Overall, the average tariff on Canadian goods going into the United States is about as low as any place in the world, he told CBC News. What's important for us is that the [CUSMA] free-trade agreement continues to hold. Whether it will in the future, of course, is a fundamental question. The biggest exceptions to Canada's mostly tariff-free access to the U.S. are steel and aluminum (new window) , hit by Trump's 50 per cent global rate as he tries to prop up that sector at home. Enlarge image (new window) A worker is shown welding at a steel manufacturing facility in Hamilton on July 16. The biggest exceptions to Canada's mostly tariff-free access to the U.S. are steel and aluminum, hit by Trump's 50 per cent global rate as he tries to prop up that sector at home. Photo: The Canadian Press / Chris Young In their deals reached with the U.S., neither the EU nor Japan are let off the hook from that tariff. While Canada is surely angling for something better on steel and aluminum — such as the U.K.'s 25 per cent tariff (new window) , potentially headed to zero — the European and Japanese agreements suggest that will be tough to achieve. Carlo Dade, director of international policy at the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy, said Canada will likely face a tariff rate comparable to Europe's. U.S. and Canada might not reach trade deal, Trump says (new window) The Americans have decided to readjust the terms of trade, Dade said. The price of access to the U.S. market is going up globally. It appears everyone is going to have to pay an increased cost. There are plenty of signs to suggest that the prospects are slim for Canada to reach a deal by Trump's deadline of Friday: Carney said the talks are complex (new window) , his top trade negotiators are downplaying the importance of the deadline (new window) and Trump himself is saying there may not be a deal at all (new window) . Mike Crawley (new window) · CBC News · Senior reporter Mike Crawley has covered Ontario politics for CBC News since 2009. He began his career as a newspaper reporter in B.C., spent six years as a freelance journalist in various parts of Africa, then joined the CBC in 2005. Mike was born and raised in Saint John, N.B. Follow Mike Crawley on Twitter (new window) With files from Natasha Fatah, Karen Pauls and Andrew Nichols
