Rand and dollar's steady climb as Trump wanes in popularity good news for consumer spending power
Image: Armand Hough/Independent Media
US President Donald Trump's continued trade war – as well as his constant backtracking on tariffs as he bows to market pressure – have seen his popularity drop.
However, both the local currency and gold, which is the ultimate safe haven, have benefitted from the situation in the US as the greenback has slowly declined in value.
What does this mean for South Africa? Continued gains in the gold price lead to a psychological increase in the value of gold miners' shares and the currency, Dr Azar Jammine, director and chief economist at Econometrix, has said.
Rand's growth in April
Image: Morningstar
The stronger rand, meanwhile, boosts spending power for consumers buying anything in greenbacks – the currency against which all other forex is benchmarked.
Gold seems set to continue its meteoric rise, having breached $3 500 on April 21 – an all-time high.
Although the yellow metal is down to $3 320 this morning, this could well be a blip. In February, JP Morgan predicted that gold would hit $3 000 this year. That figure has since been upgraded to $3 675 by late 2025 and even $4 000 in the middle of next year.
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A one-year view of the gold price as of April 29, 2025
Image: Trading Economics
'Traders are watching how South Africa will deal with the budget gap after cancelling the VAT increase. With local risks fading, the rand is now more influenced by global events, like upcoming US jobs and gross domestic product data,' said Cilliers.
On Tuesday morning, the local currency was trading at R18.55 at around 10am – a relatively flat rate when compared to a year ago. In between last April and now, South Africa saw the election of the first true coalition government since the dawn of democracy, which bolstered the currency.
However, Trump's April 2 'Liberation Day,' when he announced the initial set of tariffs, pushed the rand down to R18.94. It breached the key R19 level to the dollar on April 8.
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