The fireworks begin

Politico

9 hours ago

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With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine and Ali Bianco
Good Friday morning, and happy Independence Day. This is Zack Stanton, looking forward to the fireworks on the National Mall tonight (they start at 9:09 p.m.), which I hope to enjoy somewhere away from the crowds.
A July Fourth question: A few years back, I worked on a roundup for POLITICO Magazine asking a number of historian types who they would put on an imagined 'new' Mt. Rushmore. Answers ranged from Ida B. Wells to FDR to Dorothy Day to Dwight Eisenhower. It's a fun thought experiment. Who would you put on it? Let me know.
DRIVING THE DAY
THE SIGNATURE ACCOMPLISHMENT: In the end, President Donald Trump got what he wanted. A signature legislative victory? Check. A pliant Republican Congress? Check. A chance to mark it all with a celebration at the White House on July 4? Check. A reaffirmation that many people are unable to see any issue except as an up-or-down vote on Trump? Check.
Later today, the president is expected to sign the Republican megabill into law in a 5 p.m. ceremony at the White House. With a few pen strokes, he will enact into law the most sweeping cuts to America's social safety net in a generation, extend his 2017 tax cuts and pair them with new tax breaks for income from tips, and usher in a wave of new spending on immigration enforcement.
But for Republicans on the Hill, the megabill was, on some deep level, 'never about those tax rates or Medicaid or the deficit,' as POLITICO's Jonathan Martin writes this morning in a column we're bringing you first in Playbook. 'The underlying legislation was no bill at all, but a referendum on Trump. And that left congressional Republicans a binary choice that also had nothing to do with the policy therein: They could salute the president and vote yes or vote no and risk their careers in a primary.'
That political reality informed the process and policy. 'The hard truth for small-government conservatives in Congress to swallow is that their primary voters care more about fidelity to Trump than reducing the size of the federal government,' JMart observes.
THE PROCESS …
For all the discussion this week about potential Republican 'no' votes, there was scant opposition when it came time to stand and be counted. Only two House Republicans voted against the bill: libertarian-minded Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and moderate front-liner Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.). Everyone else — running the ideological spectrum from Don Bacon (R-Neb.) to Chip Roy (R-Texas) — got on board.
The House Freedom Caucus surrendered. 'They called their own bluff,' Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.), a frequent critic of the group, told POLITICO's Meredith Lee Hill. 'How many times have they done this? I mean, I've been in Congress for two years and five seconds, and they pulled the same stunt 19 times. … The influence of the Freedom Caucus is over.'
What did they get? 'In the end, [Trump] seems to have promised them executive orders — though details are scarce,' report WaPo's Liz Goodwin and colleagues. ''We came to significant agreements with the administration overnight on executive actions, both inside and outside, of the bill that will make America great again,' Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.) said, without elaborating.'
The conservative hard-liners folded. At 3:15 a.m. yesterday, a dozen hard-right members gathered for a photo in the House chamber, smiling for a group photo. 'The Republican holdouts had ended their fight by getting together to strike a pose,' POLITICO's Ben Jacobs writes in the best kicker we've read today. 'It wasn't difficult. After all, they had been posing all week.'
What did they get? OMB Director Russ Vought 'reassured lawmakers that the administration would use its authority to limit spending,' WSJ's Natalie Andrews and colleagues report — even spending already approved by Congress.
The moderates got in line. 'A bloc of more moderate House Republicans from politically competitive districts, many of whom had warned that the bill's Medicaid cuts could hurt their constituents and suggested they could not stomach the legislation, ultimately voted 'yes,'' writes NYT's Catie Edmondson. 'They included Representative David Valadao of California, who just last weekend warned that he could not embrace the 'harmful cuts to Medicaid' the Senate had included in its version of the bill.'
What did they get? Honestly, it doesn't seem like they got anything. With the notable exception of Fitzpatrick (good backgrounder on his unique situation from POLITICO's Holly Otterbein) moderate Republicans ultimately accepted the Senate bill, which 'is harsher on Medicaid provider taxes, financing mechanisms that states use to boost their federal funding,' WSJ's Richard Rubin and colleagues write. Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) 'said that delays to some Medicaid-funding changes helped him get comfortable with supporting the bill,' per the Journal. 'A lot's going to happen between now and 2028, and they start slowly,' Van Drew said. 'It's not going to be an immediate change next week, which is what people think it's going to be.'
The prevailing message: If the vote in the House boiled down to a referendum of support for Trump and his agenda, that was a message also carried in the Senate by Eric Schmitt. The Missouri Republican, who has 'become a trusted point man' for Trump and VP JD Vance, conveyed to the complex web of coalitions in the chamber that there simply was no alternative to passing the bill, a person familiar with the dynamics tells Playbook's Dasha Burns.
THE POLICY …
The one-paragraph summary: 'The legislation contains about $4.5 trillion in tax cuts,' AP's Kevin Freking and Lisa Mascaro write. 'It temporarily would add new tax deductions on tip[s], overtime and auto loans. There's also a $6,000 deduction for older adults who earn no more than $75,000 a year, a nod to [Trump's] pledge to end taxes on Social Security benefits. It would boost the $2,000 child tax credit to $2,200. Millions of families at lower income levels would not get the full credit. A cap on state and local deductions … would quadruple to $40,000 for five years. … There are scores of business-related tax cuts, including allowing businesses to immediately write off 100% of the cost of equipment and research.'
How to pay for that? Frankly, the bill frankly doesn't pay for it. The Congressional Budget Office projects it'll increase federal deficits by nearly $3.3 trillion over the next decade, though many Republicans quibble with that math.
To the extent there is a financial tradeoff at the heart of Trump's bill, it comes in slashing funding for Medicaid in order to partially pay for the tax cuts.
Grand Old Party vs. Grand New Party: In that way, it pits traditional Republican policy dogma against the political interests of the Trump-era Republican voter coalition, as POLITICO's Robert King and Kelly Hooper shrewdly observe. 'The Republican base now includes more working-class and low-income people, many of whom receive their health insurance through Medicaid,' they write. 'But the traditional sentiment of many Republican lawmakers toward the social safety-net program — that it provides handouts on taxpayers' dime — has largely remained the same.'
Indeed, beyond some 'populist flourishes' included in the bill, 'the measure is regressive,' WaPo's Marianna Sotomayor and colleagues write. 'The 10 percent of households with the lowest incomes would stand to be worse off by an average of $1,600 per year on average because of benefits cuts, according to the Congressional Budget Office's analysis of the House version of the bill. The 10 percent of households with the highest incomes would be better off by $12,000 on average. … Adding in the impact of Trump's tariffs — which the White House has argued will help pay for the bill's tax cuts and new spending — the bottom 80 percent of households would see their take-home incomes fall, according to the Yale Budget Lab.'
THE POLITICS …
The next phase: Democrats are eager to wield the megabill vote as a heavy cudgel ahead of the 2026 midterms, POLITICO's Elena Schneider reports. Whether they can do so effectively is almost certain to determine the balance of power in the House.
Starting now: 'Ad-makers have quickly prepped attack ads to air as soon as the holiday weekend is over, including in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. House Democrats are plotting to turn the August recess into the opening salvo of the midterms, including through town halls and organizing programs. And Democrats see an opportunity to expand the battleground, going on offense into red areas across the country.'
What Dems are seeing: My Playbook colleague Dasha Burns obtained a study that Blue Rose Research conducted for the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC. In it, they found that without any priming, net support for the bill was 8 points underwater. When provided with a fairly anodyne description of the bill, it's 19 points underwater. (And notably, this study was done before some of the largest cuts to Medicaid were introduced to the package.)
What Republicans are seeing: As Dasha reported earlier this week, GOP pollster par excellence Tony Fabrizio sees a politically salient way Republicans can brand the legislation (out: 'One Big Beautiful Bill'; in: 'Working Families Tax Cuts') and its component parts (framing the Medicaid cuts around work requirements and slashing waste, fraud and abuse).
There's a reality to acknowledge: Midterms rarely break in favor of the president. Yes, you can argue that there's a massive spin battle at hand about how to sell the bill to a weary public, with a chance that Republicans come out on top. But consider recent history.
Midterm waves build regardless of what the incumbent party wants to focus on or how they try to frame it. In 2010, Democrats tried to center their message on Barack Obama's Recovery Act, which did little to satisfy voters riled up about the Affordable Care Act and the Wall Street bailouts signed by George W. Bush; Republicans won control of the House and picked up six seats in the Senate. In 2018, Republicans tried to tout the Trump tax cuts while anger about Trump writ large combined with a Dem focus on the GOP's push to repeal the ACA; Dems retook the House and picked up seven governor's mansions.
All of which is to say this: Republicans will celebrate today at the White House, but that'll be before the fireworks start.
In the meantime, the hope of future electoral wins will be cold comfort for many Democrats. Rep. Brittany Pettersen (D-Colo.) was seen sobbing as she left the vote yesterday. 'The amount of kids who are going to go without health care and food — people like my mom [who struggle with substance use disorder] are going to be left to die because they don't have access to health care,' she said, per NYT's Annie Karni. 'It's just pretty unfathomable.'
9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US
1. TRADING SPACES: Trump said as he returned from his trip to Iowa that he is 'set to resume a set of tariffs that he initially imposed in April on dozens of countries, before pausing them for 90 days to negotiate individual deals' and some of the levies 'could be even steeper than originally announced,' NYT's Lydia DePillis writes.
What Trump said: ''So we're going to start sending letters out to various countries starting tomorrow,' said Mr. Trump, hours after his major domestic policy bill passed the House of Representatives. 'They'll range in value from maybe 60 or 70 percent tariffs to 10 and 20 percent tariffs.' He said his administration would then send more letters each day until the end of the 90-day pause, on Wednesday, when he expected they would all be covered. Smaller countries would come toward the end, and duties would begin to be collected on Aug. 1.'
2. SCOTUS WATCH: The Supreme Court yesterday 'cleared the way for the Trump administration to deport eight men to South Sudan who have been detained in a shipping container on a U.S. military base in Djibouti for six weeks after becoming caught up in a legal tug-of-war between the White House and a federal judge in Boston,' POLITICO's Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney report.
The details: 'By an apparent 7-2 vote, the justices lifted an order from U.S. District Judge Brian Murphy that had blocked the men's deportation. Murphy took that step despite a Supreme Court ruling last week that put a hold on an earlier, nationwide injunction he issued requiring the administration to give deportees advance notice of their destination and a 'meaningful' chance to object if they believed they'd be in danger there.'
3. ON THE BORDER: 'US expands militarized zones to 1/3 of southern border, stirring controversy,' by AP's Morgan Lee: 'It's part of a major shift that has thrust the military into border enforcement with Mexico like never before. The move places long stretches of the border under the supervision of nearby military bases, empowering U.S. troops to detain people who enter the country illegally and sidestep a law prohibiting military involvement in civilian law enforcement. … The militarization is being challenged in court, and has been criticized by civil rights advocates, humanitarian aid groups and outdoor enthusiasts who object to being blocked from public lands while troops have free rein.'
4. RUSSIA-UKRAINE LATEST: As he boarded Air Force One for his trip to Iowa yesterday, Trump gave a few details about his call earlier in the day with Russian President Vladimir Putin. 'It was a pretty long call. We talked about a lot of things, including Iran. We also talked about the war with Ukraine and I'm not happy about that,' the president said. But when asked whether there was a serious discussion about a deal to end the war, Trump said: 'No, I didn't make any progress.' A top Kremlin aide also said the two leaders did not discuss a recent pause in weapons shipments to Ukraine, which was first reported by POLITICO, in the nearly two-hour long conversation. More from POLITICO's Ben Johansen
So much for 'Vladimir, STOP': Hours after the phone call, Russia 'attacked Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities on Friday with the largest number of drones and missiles launched in a single barrage so far in the war, according to the Ukrainian Air Force,' NYT's Andrew Kramer reports from Kyiv. It's the latest salvo in a string of 'relentless attacks' that Putin has planned as his country's war on Ukraine enters a fourth summer, WSJ's James Marson and Jane Lytvynenko write: 'Putin's strategy is aimed at breaking Ukraine's ability and will to fight the war, by ratcheting up pressure on its military and civilian population as the country's most powerful backer shuffles toward the sidelines.'
5. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Trump 'hopes to strike a ceasefire deal in Gaza next week as he hosts Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House while his negotiating team narrows the gaps between Hamas and Israel on an agreement to release hostages and end hostilities,' WaPo's John Hudson and colleagues report. Where things stand: 'Hamas is weighing whether to accept an amended proposal for a 60-day ceasefire put forward by Qatar and Egypt interlocutors … Israelis are expecting Netanyahu and Trump to announce a ceasefire deal as well as agreements with other neighboring Arab nations during the trip.'
On the other side: 'As the United States presses for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, the militant group's decision will largely hinge on its new de facto leader in Gaza,' NYT's Adam Rasgon and Ronen Bergman report. 'The commander, Izz al-Din al-Haddad … is in his mid-50s [and] helped plan the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, 2023 … He is believed to be in firm opposition to Israeli efforts to dislodge Hamas from power, suggesting that he could block any push to release all remaining hostages before a total end to the war in Gaza and a withdrawal of Israeli troops.'
6. DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS: The Trump administration is 'reaching out to business executives to weigh interest' in whether they would accompany Trump on a potential visit to China later this year, much like the trip that the president took across the Middle East earlier this year, Bloomberg's Jenny Leonard and Catherine Lucey report. 'The Commerce Department is making calls to gauge interest from chief executives at some US companies,' though it's 'unclear how many company leaders have been asked to participate or whether any have confirmed.' The trip could come about in late October, when Trump is expected to travel to South Korea and Malaysia for back-to-back summits.
7. CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS WATCH: 'Trump Claims Sweeping Power to Nullify Laws, Letters on TikTok Ban Show,' by NYT's Charlie Savage: 'Attorney General Pam Bondi told tech companies that they could lawfully violate a statute barring American companies from supporting TikTok based on a sweeping claim that President Trump has the constitutional power to set aside laws, newly disclosed documents show. In letters to companies like Apple and Google, Ms. Bondi wrote that Mr. Trump had decided that shutting down TikTok would interfere with his 'constitutional duties,' so the law banning the social media app must give way to his 'core presidential national security and foreign affairs powers.''
8. CAPITULATION CORNER: In the wake of the Jan. 6 Capitol attack and Trump's subsequent booting from social media platforms, he sued the heads of the tech giants that took action. Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk settled the suits against their companies. Now, Google CEO Sundar Pichai, who oversees YouTube, appears to have his chance. Lawyers for the two sides 'have begun 'productive discussions' about the next steps of the case against YouTube, 'with additional discussions anticipated in the near future,'' The Atlantic's Michael Scherer reports, citing little-noticed briefs filed in San Francisco. 'The parties have asked the judge to give them until September 2 to come to an agreement on a path forward.'
9. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Email error: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce on Thursday accidentally scooped who the White House may be planning to nominate for the National Labor Relations Board by telling members of its labor relations committee before the formal rollout of the picks, according to emails obtained by POLITICO's Daniel Lippman. 'In the lead-up to the long Independence Day weekend, the White House today announced several much-anticipated appointments of two members of the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB): Scott Mayer, Chief Labor Counsel at The Boeing Corporation, and James Murphy, a former career official with the NLRB,' the Chamber wrote in an email.
But the White House hasn't yet announced those picks. Fifteen minutes after its first email went out, the Chamber wrote to the same list: 'Please ignore our recent email on NLRB nominees. This was sent in error.' A Chamber spokesperson declined to comment on the mistake, except to confirm it was an error. A White House spokesperson had no comment. Mayer and Murphy didn't respond to requests for comment.
THE WEEKEND AHEAD
FOX 'Fox News Sunday': Speaker Mike Johnson … Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) … Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) … Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Panel: Horace Cooper, Meghan Hays, Mollie Hemingway and Hans Nichols.
CBS 'Face the Nation': NEC Director Kevin Hassett … Ken Burns.
ABC 'This Week': CEA Chair Stephen Miran … Larry Summers … Richard Besser. Panel: Donna Brazile and Chris Christie.
CNN 'State of the Union': Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Panel: Scott Jennings, Shermichael Singleton, Jamal Simmons and Kate Bedingfield.
MSNBC 'PoliticsNation': Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear … Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) … Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.).
NewsNation 'The Hill Sunday': Retired Adm. William McRaven … Robert George … Andrew Sullivan … Julie Silverbrook.
NBC 'Meet the Press': Olivia Munn … Bob Costas … Sal Khan … Amanda Gorman.
TALK OF THE TOWN
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was supposed to join EU Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Maroš Šefčovič on Thursday for a meeting as Europe negotiates a trade deal with the Trump administration, but Lutnick had already left town to go on vacation with his family in Italy, a person familiar with the matter told POLITICO's Daniel Lippman and Daniel Desrochers. Instead, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he was meeting with the EU as the deadline for Trump's pause on his so-called reciprocal tariffs is due to expire next Wednesday.
'Secretary Lutnick met his wife and family for a July 4th trip,' a Commerce spokesperson said in a statement to Playbook. 'He has been on nonstop calls working for the American people and plans to be back in DC this weekend. President Trump's deal announcement with Vietnam earlier this week proves that Sec. Lutnick continues to level the playing field for the American worker.'
GARDEN VARIETY — 'White House says Garden of American Heroes may not be complete until 2029,' by WaPo's Janay Kingsberry: 'The White House said it is working to finish President Donald Trump's patriotic statue garden by the end of his second term — an acknowledgment that comes as a key deadline for the project passed this week, and one that diverges sharply from a federal agency's stated plans to complete the ambitious installation before the United States' 250th birthday next year.'
THE FRENCH CONNECTION — 'Why a birthday party in D.C. for a late French general was packed with guests,' by WaPo's Petula Dvorak: 'The honoree was Jean-Baptiste Donatien de Vimeur, the comte de Rochambeau, who would be turning 300 on that day. And despite his advanced age, he can still draw a crowd of more than 100. For many in attendance, that was largely because his actions 244 years ago remain an important lesson for America today.'
TRANSITION — Josh Craddock is joining the Justice Department as deputy assistant AG in the Office of Legal Counsel. He previously was an associate at Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati. … Lilia Dashevsky is now founder and CEO of Emet Strategies. She previously was SVP and democracy practice lead at CLYDE.
BORN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY: The United States of America is 249 … Geraldo Rivera … WSJ's Natalie Andrews … Luke Tomanelli … former Reps. Dan Maffei (D-N.Y.) and Sam Farr (D-Calif.) … Ed Matricardi … Frank Donatelli … Lanhee Chen … Ripple's Susan Hendrick … Matthew Gravatt … Stat's Chelsea Cirruzzo … Ann Rulon … Dustin Todd … Kathleen Kennedy Townsend … Kevin McLaughlin … Ryan Williams … Will Ritter of Poolhouse … Catlin O'Neill … Sunshine Sachs' Taylor Friedman … Lauren Ashburn … Cassie Ballard of Chime … Malia Obama … Viveca Novak … Terry Wade … Brandon English … Matthew Lee
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Send Playbookers tips to [e-mail] or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Zack Stanton, deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
Correction: Yesterday's Playbook misspelled Mychael Schnell's name.