Nifty faces key resistance at 25,200 amid geopolitical tensions
ADVERTISEMENT RUCHIT JAIN
VICE PRESIDENT, MOTILAL OSWAL FINANCIAL SERVICES
Where is Nifty headed this week?
Geopolitical tensions have led to a consolidation phase in Indian markets over the past month. However, this appears to be a time-wise corrective phase within an uptrend, with Nifty holding above its support zone of 24,500– 24,450—a crucial near-term level. The immediate hurdle for the index lies in the 25,200–25,250 range. A breakout above this could propel the index towards 25,500–25,700. On the downside, 24,800 is the immediate support, followed by positional support at 24,450.
Trading strategies for the week: Traders are advised to focus on stocks that have shown relative strength over the past month. Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) has given a breakout, signalling a bullish trend. Exchange-related stocks such as MCX, and defence names like BEL, BEML, and BDL are expected to extend their uptrend in the short term.
PRITESH MEHTA
EVP – INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES, YES SECURITIES
ADVERTISEMENT
Where is Nifty headed this week?
Despite elevated global uncertainty, inter-market signals suggest relative strength for Indian equities. Friday's 300-point rally was a welcome shift, as the market had been struggling to find a trending move. More importantly, the index managed to sustain its gains without cooling off. Our customised Top 10 Nifty index gained momentum after weeks of consolidation, indicating strength in large caps. Our breadth indicator also showed a bullish crossover, with ~58% of index constituents displaying a bullish bias. An ABC breakout, along with a double-top buy signal on the Point & Figure chart, combined with improving breadth, suggests a potential move towards the 25,700 zone.
ADVERTISEMENT Trading strategies for the week: Improved breadth, renewed traction in banks and financials, and support in the Midcap 100 index around its 10-column average all point to further upside. Among sectors, our customised Capital Markets and Defence indices are bouncing from support. BEL, CAMS, and CDSL are showing multiple bullish patterns and could rally 10–14% in the coming weeks. The ratio of IT to Nifty has followed through on a bullish turtle breakout, indicating a potential comeback for select IT stocks.
ARPAN SHAH
ADVERTISEMENT HEAD – TECHNICAL RESEARCH, MONARCH NETWORTH CAPITAL
Where is Nifty headed this week? Nifty has been consolidating within the 24,500–25,200 range for past six weeks, lacking a clear directional trend. Despite absorbing geopolitical shocks, including the India-Pakistan conflict, the market has managed to hold key support levels. Friday's session ended with a strong bullish candlestick formation, indicating that a breakout above 25,200 could trigger short-covering and open upside targets of 25,600–25,900. The banking index, which has been consolidating near its all-time high, is expected to move in line with the benchmark, with upside targets of 57,200–58,000.
ADVERTISEMENT Trading strategies for the week: The midcap index has formed a strong reversal at its breakout level. Traders can consider buying for upside targets of 13,400–13,600. The IT index has been gradually inching up, and offers a favourable risk-reward setup. Investors may accumulate HCL Tech, Kaynes, and R Systems at current levels. PSU bank stocks, including SBI and Bank of Baroda, have seen profit booking post the RBI rate cut and are now near support, both can be added at current prices. Defence stocks, having rallied sharply in the last 3–4 months, now present an unfavourable risk-reward and are best avoided. Among mid- and small-caps, CGCL, Praj Industries, GPIL, and Bharat Rasayan are good accumulation bets at current levels.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Hindustan Times
13 minutes ago
- Hindustan Times
Sensex and Nifty surge on optimism over US trade deal
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty rallied in early trade on Wednesday amid optimism around a possible trade agreement with the US. India's manufacturing sector growth rose to a 14-month high of 58.4 in June.(REUTERS file) Buying in IT blue-chip stocks also drove the equity markets higher during the initial trade. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 236.56 points to 83,933.85 in early trade. The 50-share NSE Nifty went up by 66.3 points to 25,608.10. From the Sensex firms, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, Sun Pharma, Tata Consultancy Services and Tata Motors were among the biggest gainers. However, Bajaj Finserv, Asian Paints, Bharat Electronics and Bajaj Finance were among the laggards. India's manufacturing sector growth rose to a 14-month high of 58.4 in June marked by improved trends in output and new orders, alongside a record upturn in employment, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index – an indicator of sector performance - was 57.6 in May. "The market is expected to open on a positive note, supported by strong domestic cues such as a 14-month high in manufacturing PMI, a narrowing trade deficit, and optimism around a potential trade agreement with the US," Vikas Jain, Head of Research at Reliance Securities, said in his pre-market views. Gross GST collection increased by 6.2 per cent to over ₹ 1.84 lakh crore in June but slipped below the ₹ 2 lakh crore mark recorded in the previous two months. The GST mop-up stood at ₹ 1.74 lakh crore a year ago, as per government data released on Tuesday. "After breaking the 24,500-25,000 range Nifty has moved to the new range of 25,200-25,800. Positive news about a possible trade deal between India and the US can help break the upper limit of the range but it would be difficult to sustain the Nifty at higher levels for long. A surprise element is the resilience of the US economy and corporate earnings, which in turn is imparting resilience to the US market, despite the tariffs," VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments, said. In Asian markets, South Korea's Kospi, Japan's Nikkei 225 index and Shanghai's SSE Composite index were trading lower while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index quoted higher. The US markets ended on a mixed note on Tuesday. Global oil benchmark Brent crude traded 0.06 per cent up at USD 67.15 a barrel. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth ₹ 1,970.14 crore on Tuesday, according to exchange data. In the previous trading session, the Sensex rose by 90.83 points or 0.11 per cent to settle at 83,697.29. The Nifty gained 24.75 points or 0.10 per cent to close at 25,541.80.
Economic Times
13 minutes ago
- Economic Times
RBL Bank shares rally 3% as Dubai-based Emirates NBD Bank eyes up to 20% stake
Shares of RBL Bank rose 2.7% to Rs 266.95 on Wednesday after reports said Dubai government-owned Emirates NBD Bank is in talks to acquire up to a 20% stake in the private lender through a significant capital infusion. ADVERTISEMENT The stock, which has rallied more than 21% in the past month and over 64% in the past six, rose for an eighth time in nine sessions. It closed Tuesday at Rs 259.95, up 4.6%, with a market value of Rs 15,831.21 crore. The Emirates NBD Bank PJSC is in advanced discussions to acquire a minority stake in RBL Bank through a preferential allotment. This would mark a primary capital infusion into RBL and help the Dubai-government-owned lender deepen its Asia strategy. The deal, still under negotiation, could be similar in structure to the recent SMBC-Yes Bank investment. Emirates NBD may end up holding around 15–20% of RBL's expanded capital base, just below the open offer threshold, pending regulatory approval. That would translate to an investment of approximately Rs 3,166.24 crore. 'However, the deal is likely to take place at a premium to the current price,' people familiar with the matter told The Economic Times. RBL Bank is entirely publicly owned, with several domestic institutions holding modest stakes. Quant Mutual Fund owns 6.65%, Nippon Life India 3.11%, ICICI Prudential Life 1.06% and LIC 1.19%. Mahindra and Mahindra acquired a 3.48% stake in 2023, while Zerodha holds 1.24%. British International Investment exited its 3.82% holding in April. ADVERTISEMENT The Reserve Bank of India in May granted in-principle approval to Emirates NBD to convert its existing Indian branches in Chennai, Gurugram and Mumbai into a wholly owned subsidiary. The Dubai-based bank also recently launched investment banking operations in India.'There is a deep connect between UAE and India, both diplomatic and commercial. The bank has been eyeing opportunities but has not been very keen to buy into NBFCs (non-banking finance companies) unlike some of their peers,' an industry executive told The Economic Times. 'There is also a lot of synergy in wealth and other product distribution.' ADVERTISEMENT RBL Bank, originally set up 70 years ago in Maharashtra, transformed itself into a national player beginning in 2010, focusing on credit cards and microfinance. However, its differentiated asset strategy is considered cyclical and exposed to stress in unsecured the March quarter, RBL Bank's net profit fell 80% sequentially to Rs 68.7 crore, despite a rise in other income to Rs 1,000 crore. Net interest income dropped 2.3% year-on-year to Rs 1,563 crore. ADVERTISEMENT 'Business growth is gaining traction and slippages are expected to normalise by 2QFY26,' Nitin Aggarwal, analyst at Motilal Oswal told The Economic Times. 'Margins will be flattish to lower before it will claw back up. The trajectory is expected to improve starting FY26. The cards business is expected to grow in the mid-single digits.' Despite the stock's recent rally, analysts say it still trades below book value and remains among the most affordable banking stocks in India, with a P/E ratio of over 21. However, sources caution that talks may not result in a deal. The lender is also exploring a capital raise from institutional investors as a fallback. ADVERTISEMENT If successful, Emirates NBD's move will mark the second major investment from West Asia into an Indian bank this quarter. In April, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Warburg Pincus committed Rs 7,500 crore to IDFC First Bank. Also read | Emirates NBD eyes RBL Bank stake for India, Asia play (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Time of India
24 minutes ago
- Time of India
Russian sanctions bill: US planning to impose 500 per cent tariffs on nations trading with Moscow- How will this impact India?
The United States is planning to impose a 500 per cent tariff on the products of those countries that are still doing trade with Russia. In an interview with ABC News, Senator Lindsey Graham said that he wanted the US to impose tariffs to stop them from supporting Vladimir Putin's war machine. Moscow launched full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago on February 24, 2022. "Big breakthrough here. So what does this bill do? If you're buying products from Russia and you're not helping Ukraine, then there's a 500 percent tariff on your products coming into the United States. India and China buy 70 percent of Putin's oil. They keep his war machine going. My bill has 84 co-sponsors. It would allow the president to put tariffs on China and India and other countries to get them -- stop them from supporting Putin's war machine, to get him to the table. For the first time yesterday, the president told me," Graham said. How this will impact India? India has elevated Russia to its primary oil supplier following a substantial increase in Russian crude oil imports in June, exceeding the combined purchases from prominent Gulf suppliers including Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The previous month's imports from Russia stood at 1.96 million barrels per day (bpd). The potential implementation of the US bill could result in extensive 500 per cent tariffs on Indian goods entering America. Nevertheless, India is currently negotiating a trade agreement with the US, which is anticipated to significantly reduce US tariffs on Indian products.
