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Business Standard
21 hours ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Bull run on buckling knees: Benchmarks stand tall, but on splintered legs
June rally runs on a limp: Headline gains mask a brittle advance, with more stocks falling than rising premium Samie Modak Mumbai Listen to This Article The benchmark Sensex and Nifty are on course for a fourth straight monthly advance, each up over 3 per cent so far this month. While the headline indices remain firm, market breadth has thinned, with more stocks declining than rising. If this trend holds through the final trading session, June will be the first month since February to log negative market breadth. The advance/decline ratio has slipped below 1, even as the Nifty Smallcap 100 and Midcap 100 have gained 3.4 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively. The Nifty Microcap 250 has underperformed, rising just 2.14 per cent.
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Business Standard
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Sensex reclaims 84K level for first time since October, nears peak
Benchmark indices rose for a fourth straight session on Friday, with the Sensex closing above the 84,000 mark for the first time since October 1, 2024. The rally was fuelled by improving sentiment amid easing geopolitical tensions and optimism over potential trade deals between the US and its trading partners. Both indices posted weekly gains of 2 per cent, the most since the week ended May 16. The Nifty rose 0.35 per cent, or 89 points, to settle at 25,638, while the BSE Sensex climbed 0.36 per cent, or 303 points, to close at 84,059. Both benchmarks ended at their highest levels since October 1. In the broader market, the Nifty Smallcap 100 and Midcap 100 indices gained 4.3 per cent and 2.4 per cent, respectively, over the week. Most of the week's gains were driven by HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries (RIL), the top two weights in the Sensex and Nifty. RIL rose 3.5 per cent this week, supported by upbeat earnings forecasts from multiple brokerages. HDFC Bank gained 2.5 per cent during the week on expectations of lower funding costs and strong gross domestic product growth. The Nifty and Sensex are now trading less than 3 per cent below their all-time highs, last seen on September 27. The week's gains followed the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which led to a decline in oil prices. The Nifty Metal index outperformed this week, jumping nearly 5 per cent as a weaker dollar lifted the global outlook for commodities by making them more affordable. Expectations of deeper US rate cuts and uncertainty ahead of former President Donald Trump's July 9 tariff deadline weighed on the dollar. 'Things are looking better on the geopolitical front, and there is hope that the US and its key trading partners will reach a deal,' said Ambareesh Baliga, independent equity analyst. Even if a deal doesn't materialise before the July 9 deadline, there's a chance of an extension, Baliga said. Market breadth was positive, with 2,165 stocks advancing and 1,846 declining. Foreign portfolio investors were net buyers to the tune of ₹1,397 crore, while domestic institutional investors were net sellers to the tune of ₹589 crore. The total market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms rose by ₹2.5 trillion to ₹460 trillion ($5.4 trillion). 'For trend-following traders, 25,500–25,300 on the Nifty and 83,300-82,700 on the Sensex would act as crucial retracement support zones. As long as the market remains above these levels, the uptrend is likely to continue on the higher side, with 25,850/84,400 serving as the immediate resistance level,' said Amol Athawale, VP-Technical Research, Kotak Securities. Meanwhile, the rupee strengthened for the second consecutive day on Friday, supported by likely inflows from global funds and a weaker dollar index. The domestic currency closed 22 paise higher at 85.49, a day after closing at 86.71 against the dollar. The currency saw its best week since January 2023, driven mainly by a plunge in crude oil prices amid Israel-Iran conflicts.
Economic Times
23-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Nifty faces key resistance at 25,200 amid geopolitical tensions
Following Friday's rally, Nifty now faces a crucial test near 25,200. Analysts say a sustained move above this level could pave the way for a further rise toward 25,700–25,900, but also caution that geopolitical uncertainties may continue to inject volatility into the markets. On the downside, support at 24,500 remains crucial with stock-specific action in banks, midcaps, and select names like M&M, BEL, and CAMS offering trading opportunities. ADVERTISEMENT RUCHIT JAIN VICE PRESIDENT, MOTILAL OSWAL FINANCIAL SERVICES Where is Nifty headed this week? Geopolitical tensions have led to a consolidation phase in Indian markets over the past month. However, this appears to be a time-wise corrective phase within an uptrend, with Nifty holding above its support zone of 24,500– 24,450—a crucial near-term level. The immediate hurdle for the index lies in the 25,200–25,250 range. A breakout above this could propel the index towards 25,500–25,700. On the downside, 24,800 is the immediate support, followed by positional support at 24,450. Trading strategies for the week: Traders are advised to focus on stocks that have shown relative strength over the past month. Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) has given a breakout, signalling a bullish trend. Exchange-related stocks such as MCX, and defence names like BEL, BEML, and BDL are expected to extend their uptrend in the short term. PRITESH MEHTA EVP – INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES, YES SECURITIES ADVERTISEMENT Where is Nifty headed this week? Despite elevated global uncertainty, inter-market signals suggest relative strength for Indian equities. Friday's 300-point rally was a welcome shift, as the market had been struggling to find a trending move. More importantly, the index managed to sustain its gains without cooling off. Our customised Top 10 Nifty index gained momentum after weeks of consolidation, indicating strength in large caps. Our breadth indicator also showed a bullish crossover, with ~58% of index constituents displaying a bullish bias. An ABC breakout, along with a double-top buy signal on the Point & Figure chart, combined with improving breadth, suggests a potential move towards the 25,700 zone. ADVERTISEMENT Trading strategies for the week: Improved breadth, renewed traction in banks and financials, and support in the Midcap 100 index around its 10-column average all point to further upside. Among sectors, our customised Capital Markets and Defence indices are bouncing from support. BEL, CAMS, and CDSL are showing multiple bullish patterns and could rally 10–14% in the coming weeks. The ratio of IT to Nifty has followed through on a bullish turtle breakout, indicating a potential comeback for select IT stocks. ARPAN SHAH ADVERTISEMENT HEAD – TECHNICAL RESEARCH, MONARCH NETWORTH CAPITAL Where is Nifty headed this week? Nifty has been consolidating within the 24,500–25,200 range for past six weeks, lacking a clear directional trend. Despite absorbing geopolitical shocks, including the India-Pakistan conflict, the market has managed to hold key support levels. Friday's session ended with a strong bullish candlestick formation, indicating that a breakout above 25,200 could trigger short-covering and open upside targets of 25,600–25,900. The banking index, which has been consolidating near its all-time high, is expected to move in line with the benchmark, with upside targets of 57,200–58,000. ADVERTISEMENT Trading strategies for the week: The midcap index has formed a strong reversal at its breakout level. Traders can consider buying for upside targets of 13,400–13,600. The IT index has been gradually inching up, and offers a favourable risk-reward setup. Investors may accumulate HCL Tech, Kaynes, and R Systems at current levels. PSU bank stocks, including SBI and Bank of Baroda, have seen profit booking post the RBI rate cut and are now near support, both can be added at current prices. Defence stocks, having rallied sharply in the last 3–4 months, now present an unfavourable risk-reward and are best avoided. Among mid- and small-caps, CGCL, Praj Industries, GPIL, and Bharat Rasayan are good accumulation bets at current levels.
Time of India
23-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Nifty faces key resistance at 25,200 amid geopolitical tensions
Following Friday's rally, Nifty now faces a crucial test near 25,200. Analysts say a sustained move above this level could pave the way for a further rise toward 25,700–25,900, but also caution that geopolitical uncertainties may continue to inject volatility into the markets. On the downside, support at 24,500 remains crucial with stock-specific action in banks, midcaps, and select names like M&M, BEL, and CAMS offering trading opportunities. RUCHIT JAIN VICE PRESIDENT, MOTILAL OSWAL FINANCIAL SERVICES Where is Nifty headed this week? Geopolitical tensions have led to a consolidation phase in Indian markets over the past month. However, this appears to be a time-wise corrective phase within an uptrend, with Nifty holding above its support zone of 24,500– 24,450—a crucial near-term level. The immediate hurdle for the index lies in the 25,200–25,250 range. A breakout above this could propel the index towards 25,500–25,700. On the downside, 24,800 is the immediate support, followed by positional support at 24,450. Trading strategies for the week: Traders are advised to focus on stocks that have shown relative strength over the past month. Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) has given a breakout, signalling a bullish trend. Exchange-related stocks such as MCX, and defence names like BEL, BEML, and BDL are expected to extend their uptrend in the short term. Agencies Live Events PRITESH MEHTA EVP – INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES, YES SECURITIES Where is Nifty headed this week? Despite elevated global uncertainty, inter-market signals suggest relative strength for Indian equities. Friday's 300-point rally was a welcome shift, as the market had been struggling to find a trending move. More importantly, the index managed to sustain its gains without cooling off. Our customised Top 10 Nifty index gained momentum after weeks of consolidation, indicating strength in large caps. Our breadth indicator also showed a bullish crossover, with ~58% of index constituents displaying a bullish bias. An ABC breakout, along with a double-top buy signal on the Point & Figure chart, combined with improving breadth, suggests a potential move towards the 25,700 zone. Trading strategies for the week: Improved breadth, renewed traction in banks and financials, and support in the Midcap 100 index around its 10-column average all point to further upside. Among sectors, our customised Capital Markets and Defence indices are bouncing from support. BEL, CAMS, and CDSL are showing multiple bullish patterns and could rally 10–14% in the coming weeks. The ratio of IT to Nifty has followed through on a bullish turtle breakout, indicating a potential comeback for select IT stocks. ARPAN SHAH HEAD – TECHNICAL RESEARCH, MONARCH NETWORTH CAPITAL Where is Nifty headed this week? Nifty has been consolidating within the 24,500–25,200 range for past six weeks, lacking a clear directional trend. Despite absorbing geopolitical shocks, including the India-Pakistan conflict, the market has managed to hold key support levels. Friday's session ended with a strong bullish candlestick formation, indicating that a breakout above 25,200 could trigger short-covering and open upside targets of 25,600–25,900. The banking index, which has been consolidating near its all-time high, is expected to move in line with the benchmark, with upside targets of 57,200–58,000. Trading strategies for the week: The midcap index has formed a strong reversal at its breakout level. Traders can consider buying for upside targets of 13,400–13,600. The IT index has been gradually inching up, and offers a favourable risk-reward setup. Investors may accumulate HCL Tech, Kaynes, and R Systems at current levels. PSU bank stocks, including SBI and Bank of Baroda, have seen profit booking post the RBI rate cut and are now near support, both can be added at current prices. Defence stocks, having rallied sharply in the last 3–4 months, now present an unfavourable risk-reward and are best avoided. Among mid- and small-caps, CGCL, Praj Industries, GPIL, and Bharat Rasayan are good accumulation bets at current levels.
Mint
16-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
ONGC to Swiggy - Vinay Rajani of HDFC Sec suggests these 3 stocks to buy in the near-term
Stock market today: India's stock market benchmarks gained ground following a lackluster opening on Monday, buoyed by increases in IT and financial sectors after experiencing two consecutive sessions of decline due to a worsening conflict between Israel and Iran. As of 12:37 IST, the Nifty 50 increased by 0.85% to reach 24,929 . 20, while the Sensex climbed 0.77% to hit 81,752.79. Following the widespread sell-off in the previous two sessions, the markets seem poised for a short-term rebound; however, geopolitical developments will continue to be a significant factor, according to market analysts. Over the weekend, fresh attacks were exchanged between Israel and Iran, raising concerns about broader instability in the oil-rich area. Crude oil prices rose amid worries about supply disruptions, which poses a risk for India, a nation heavily dependent on oil imports. Vinay Rajani of HDFC Securities recommends Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd (ONGC), Swiggy Ltd, and Macrotech Developers Ltd (Lodha). The Nifty 50 continued its consolidation for the fourth consecutive week, experiencing a weekly fall of 1.14%. The Nifty 50 closed below its 20-day EMA (24,791), with the next key support at the 50-day EMA, currently positioned at 24,386. The index has maintained its level above the swing low of 24,462, indicating a continuation of the consolidation phase within the 24,500 and 25,200 range for the fourth straight week. A notable development during the week was the Nifty 50 finding resistance at the swing high made in October 2024, concluding the week with a bearish 'Dark Cloud Cover' candlestick pattern on the weekly chart. This bearish pattern will be confirmed if the Nifty breaks below the candle's low in the upcoming sessions without breaching the high. A close below 24462 could lead to a further slide towards the unfilled gap of 24378-24164 (formed on May 12, 2025), and a closing below 24,164 would signal a bearish trend reversal positionally. The Bank Nifty has formed a bearish 'Engulfing' pattern on its weekly chart. The negative implication of this pattern will be validated if the index breaks its candle's low of 55,149. Should this occur, the Bank Nifty could slide down to its next support level of 53,500. On the upside, the 56,000-56,200 band is expected to offer resistance. The Midcap100 and Microcap250 indices are still holding their uptrend on positional charts, representing resilience in the broader market. However, they also need to protect their levels aboven last week's lows to sustain their upward momentum. Adding to the cautious sentiment, Brent crude has seen a significant price jump, while the Indian rupee has experienced healthy depreciation against the dollar. The combination of higher crude prices and a weaker rupee could collectively contribute to weak Indian equity market sentiments going forward. In summary, while the broader market indices are holding up, both Nifty and Bank Nifty are showing bearish technical patterns and consolidating within key ranges. Critical support levels need to be defended to prevent a potential bearish trend reversal, and external factors like crude oil prices and currency depreciation could add further pressure. Nifty Strategy : Despite a bullish primary trend, Nifty 50 is currently undergoing short-term consolidation. Traders holding long positions should maintain a stop-loss at 24,462. A breach below this level could lead to a further decline towards 24,164 support, and a sustainable close below 24,164 would positionally reverse the bullish trend. Conversely, a close above 25,000 would negate the possibility of a downtrend. Vinay Rajani of HDFC Securities recommends these three stocks in the near term - Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd (ONGC), Swiggy Ltd, and Macrotech Developers Ltd (Lodha). ONGC share price has broken out from multi-week consolidation with rising volumes. Stock price has taken out multi top resistance of 252 and has been sustaining above it. Stock is placed above all key moving averages, indicating a bullish trend on all time frames. Indicators and oscillators have been showing strength on the daily and weekly time frames. Swiggy share price has surpassed the crucial resistance of 20 DEMA with healthy volumes. Daily RSI has been sustaining above 50, which shows the strength in the stock. Daily MACD has shown positive crossover on signal as well as on equilibrium line. Stock has started forming higher top and higher bottom formation on the daily chart. Stock price has taken out previous swing high resistance. Macrotech Developers share price has broken out from the descending triangle pattern on the weekly chart. Stock is placed above key moving averages, indicating bullish trend on all time frames. Realty sector index has been outperforming for last couple of weeks. Monthly RSI has given bullish crossover, which indicates strength in the stocks. Volumes have risen along with the recent price rise. Stock has been forming higher tops and higher bottoms on the daily. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts, experts and broking companies, not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decision.
