Who will win the Gold Logie? And why will it be Lynne McGranger?

The Age

2 days ago

While this is not strictly a new phenomenon – in 2011 and 2012 respectively, Karl Stefanovic and Hamish Blake, both Nine talent, won gold – it's a timely reminder of home-ground advantage. As the host broadcaster, Seven spends more time advertising the Logies, thereby giving increased airtime to highly visible voting campaigns for their talent. In 2023 the #OnyaSonia campaign ran consistently during the voting period across Seven's morning and prime-time television offerings, with the #EmdurForGold campaign following suit in 2024.
This year McGranger appears to be the network's priority, having already been featured on Sunrise and The Morning Show, with advertisements encouraging audiences to vote for McGranger also running during Seven's prime-time programming, including Dancing with the Stars.
The nostalgia factor
In February, McGranger announced that, after 33 years playing Irene Roberts, she was leaving Home and Away, with her on-screen departure set to air in the weeks following the Logies broadcast.
While Home and Away isn't the most-watched show on free-to-air television, it still has a National Total TV Reach of more than a million viewers most nights (according to ratings agency OzTAM) and the show has historically been hugely popular with Logies voters. The nostalgia narrative, combined with an audience familiar with Logies voting, delivers a powerful model around which Seven can mobilise viewers to vote.
The network has already set up a special website for fans to farewell McGranger (goodbyeirene.com.au) and, with her final episodes set to air in mid-August, everything is in place for a golden goodbye.
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Why the others don't stand a chance
Let's start with Hamish Blake. A two-time gold winner, Blake is actively instructing fans not to vote for him, telling this masthead to leave his name off the ballot: 'I think we all know what to do.'
Kruger, also a previous winner, doesn't appear to be in the running, with online bookies ranking her the long outsider and Seven dedicating more resources to McGranger's run. Julia Morris is nominated again but, having been overlooked three times previously, that doesn't bode well.
Meanwhile, history suggests Lisa Millar faces an uphill battle. Outside of Tom Gleeson's 2019 success (following a controversial mock campaign) the last gold winner to come from the ABC was Norman Gunston in 1976.
McGranger's biggest competition is likely to come from Nine's Ally Langdon and Ten's Poh Ling Yeow, both of whom have strong fan bases and significant industry influence. At the time of writing, online bookies have McGranger as the very short favourite.
Lynne for the win. But should we be worried?
McGranger is no doubt a beloved actor, but was she the most popular personality on Australian television in 2024 (the time period on which nominees are judged)?
A first-time nominee after three decades on air, it's difficult to make a case that McGranger would be nominated had she not announced her departure from Home and Away earlier this year.
In response to questions about how the Gold Logie nominees are determined, a Seven spokesperson said: 'Broadcasters can enter up to four submissions for gold. Those submissions are reviewed and assessed by panels of independent industry experts, which include audience data specialists, determining the seven nominees.'
Data specialists are a new addition to Logies judging this year. According to Seven, they are 'independent data analysts with expertise in audience metrics, particularly within the television industry'. Seven was unable to answer how many audience data specialists there are.
However, should McGranger be victorious, there would be plenty more questions about what the Gold Logie represents and precisely how voting delivers a winner.