Trump to give Netanyahu a Gaza ultimatum — will it work?
On Monday, when Netanyahu returns to the White House, there may be no cameras and no press conference. Instead, the pair are expected to meet for a private early dinner where, behind closed doors, Trump will remind Netanyahu of all the US has done for Israel by striking Iran.
'Bibi [Netanyahu] has to pay a price, and that price is Gaza. He will give it, through the agreement, step by step, not all in one day,' Ronni Shaked, co-ordinator of the Middle East unit at the Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace, said.
Trump is expected to persuade the Israeli leader to accept a 60-day ceasefire with Hamas, in exchange for the return of half of the hostages still held by militants. 'But after 60 days, Netanyahu will find the excuse, any excuse, to continue the war, to stay in Gaza, in order to keep the government,' Shaked added.
The cycle of war for quiet is a familiar one for Netanyahu, who has fought four wars with Hamas in Gaza since its takeover in 2007 in an approach known as 'mowing the lawn'. Sceptics of the prime minister, of which there are many — a recent poll gave Netanyahu a trust rating of 40 per cent among the Israeli public — say he has no intention of planning for the 'day after' the war. Yet this is exactly what Trump wants to see.
Over the past week, Trump repeatedly posted on his social media platform that a deal was imminent. He even commented on Netanyahu's corruption trial, speaking out against what he called a political witch-hunt of the prime minister.
Afterwards, Netanyahu managed to delay undergoing cross-examination in his trial for corruption by citing 'political, national and security issues at hand'.
It has been a winning streak for Netanyahu, who can also trumpet his third invitation to the White House in the president's second term.
However, Netanyahu's departure to Washington was delayed by three hours because of a crisis in his fragile government, banded together by religious nationalists who want to continue the war and ultra-orthodox members who do not want their sect to enlist in the army.
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) are set to issue more than 50,000 conscription orders for the ultra-orthodox community to join up in July, and offered to increase jail spots for deserters. In response, the Haredi parties that represent that community said they may boycott future parliament votes until they see a new draft of a bill to alleviate the conscription demands.
Within Israel, there is growing opposition to the war in Gaza among both the military and the public. Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, the IDF chief of staff, has questioned the government's plan for Gaza's future and why more Israeli soldiers must die in battle.
Meanwhile, the Israeli public watches as families of hostages held in Gaza for more than 630 days show up day after day in Tel Aviv's Hostages Square and beg for the lives of their loved ones, calling for a deal.
'All 50 hostages must be brought home. It is unbearably cruel to bring only in parts,' Viki Cohen, the mother of the 21-year-old captive soldier, Nimrod Cohen, said. 'We cannot begin to recover as individuals and as a nation until they are all home. No one should be left behind. Twenty-one months this nightmare is going on.'
Those familiar with past negotiations with Hamas say it is unlikely soldiers such as Cohen will be handed over easily because they are leverage for the Islamist group during negotiations. Hamas is also said to be bargaining for Israeli troops to withdraw and the elimination of the Israeli-run Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, which has taken over the distribution of aid from traditional non-governmental organisations and overseen a deadly and chaotic handout of essential supplies, which is said to have killed more than 600 Palestinians.
Despite hopes an agreement will be announced on Monday, there still appear to be gaps between Israel and Hamas in the wording of the agreement. Those gaps can and have been bridged before, in two previous ceasefires, but it is far from the guarantee Trump seeks for a lasting peace and the initiation of a new regional order.
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