Why did storms hit Austin so hard and fast? A clash of systems from Mexico to Colorado
As a result, a massive supercell storm struck the area. Large hail shattered glass near the top of the Capitol rotunda and at doorways of Austin-Bergstrom International Airport. It also caused significant damage at UFCU Disch-Falk Field, home to the Texas Longhorns baseball team, which is scheduled to host the NCAA Tournament's Austin Regional on Friday.
Additionally, the roof over the pumps at a Shell gas station on the 7500 block of North MoPac Expressway collapsed while people were still inside their vehicles.
More: 30K+ customers without power in Austin, could last 'multiple days.' What we know Thursday.
While storms were expected, the severity and timing were never clear, according to discussions from the National Weather Service office in Austin, which noted that high-resolution models, known as CAMs, even struggled to predict how the various systems would interact.
"CAMs don't have a good handle on this, and there is uncertainty with how much this fills in between the [mesoscale convective vortex] to the south, which could cut off richer inflow, and storms in the far northern Hill Country," the report noted around 12:30 p.m. Wednesday.
The storms are part of a broader pattern of severe weather expected across the region this week and mark the third consecutive day of heavy rainfall, with continued chances for isolated to scattered storms through the weekend.
Here's what we know.
A swirl of energy from storms over Mexico — known as a mesoscale convective vortex, or MCV — moved into South Texas on Wednesday, while a weak front had stalled over Central Texas. That stalled front acted like a roadblock in the atmosphere, setting the stage for a collision between the two systems, according to the National Weather Service.
An MCV is essentially a pocket of mid-level atmospheric energy left behind by a weakening thunderstorm complex. As this system pivoted into South Texas, it helped lift air in the atmosphere — a key ingredient for storm formation — while also drawing in moisture and instability, which fueled stronger storms.
When the spinning MCV interacted with the stalled front and a very humid, unstable air mass, it triggered powerful thunderstorms over the Austin area. Because the front wasn't moving, it anchored the collision in place, resulting in intense rainfall and severe weather within a short period.
"Convective chances through the overnight and during the day on Wednesday will be highly driven by mesoscale features," an early Wednesday report stated. "Thunderstorms currently moving through the southern Edwards Plateau and far northern Hill Country are riding along a stalled frontal boundary. Farther south, a complex of storms coming out of Mexico into southern Maverick and Webb counties has generated a MCV. The MCV is in the process of pivoting into far southern Maverick and Dimmit counties and could result in damaging wind gusts and large hail, along with heavy rainfall."
The National Weather Service noted that these types of weather setups can be difficult to predict precisely. However, they often lead to rapidly developing, high-impact storms like those seen on Wednesday, with heavy rain, damaging winds, and large hail possible within a short time.
In a later update, the National Weather Service added that satellite water vapor imagery also showed a shortwave over northwest Texas — a ripple of energy in the upper atmosphere that was expected to move south and east. This shortwave helped lift the air, allowing storms to intensify quickly.
This disturbance differs from an MCV because it's part of the broader jet stream pattern and occurs higher in the atmosphere, around 18,000 feet, where it helps lift air and promote storm development over a wide area. In contrast, an MCV is a smaller, mid-level swirl of energy left behind by earlier storms, typically forming lower in the atmosphere. While an MCV can spin up new storms, it only does so if the surrounding environment has enough moisture and instability.
"With recent rounds of convection overachieving in recent days, we have to believe that we'll probably see more activity than the latest CAMs are letting on," the agency wrote with a better understanding of the systems around 2 p.m. Wednesday.
The storms that impacted Austin on Wednesday are not influenced by Tropical Storm Alvin, which formed as the first named storm in 2025.
That system is developing in the eastern Pacific Ocean, several hundred miles southwest of Mexico's Pacific coast. In contrast, the severe weather in Austin originated much farther north, from a complex of thunderstorms moving out of northern Mexico, specifically the state of Coahuila, into South Texas.
Severe weather is expected to return around midnight and continue into early Friday, bringing the risk of large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall capable of causing localized flooding, according to the National Weather Service in Austin.
Clear skies are forecast to return Sunday, just in time for a Saharan dust plume to drift over the eastern half of Texas, affecting areas from Houston to Dallas, including Austin and San Antonio.
The dust is expected to bring hazy skies and reduced air quality.
This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Why did Austin's storms hit so hard and fast? NWS forecasts explain
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