Commerce Secretary Lutnick: The key to why the EU did the deal is autos and pharmaceuticals
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Market moves past trade deal euphoria—Morgan Stanley dives into what comes next
-- Trade war fears may no longer be dominating the spotlight, but beneath the surface, the global trade regime remains a moving target, with new deals, shifting deadlines, and policy lags fueling persistent uncertainty for businesses and investors alike. But as markets celebrate recent U.S. deals with the EU and Japan, the tariff story is far from over—a reality set to linger well into year-end and beyond, Morgan Stanley analysts warned in a recent note. "Tariffs are likely to remain a moving target. Deals that have been announced lack clarity or legal foundations, making it hard to assess their longevity," Morgan Stanley analysts said, warning that announced agreements often 'lack a legal structure, legislative process, and sector details... raising key questions, especially for businesses trying to invest' Baseline Trajectory: Higher but Volatile Tariffs into Year-End Morgan Stanley's expects a 'steady baseline of ~10-15% tariffs,' with higher rates reserved for China (potentially 20-45%). The analysts stress the volatility and execution risks remain as recent headline agreements remain 'difficult to implement and track.' 'Trade policy uncertainty in the aggregate is still high, with the potential for future frictions as these agreements are difficult to implement and track,' they added. Current Tariff Landscape: Hard to Pin Down Despite a flurry of deals, 'the post-August tariff landscape remains broadly consistent with our base case. Though, we caution that tariff levels remain difficult to pin down with precision because of volatility in import shares, compliance rates under USMCA, and the inherent lag in shipping data,' The EU deal, in particular, 'seems to have raised tariff levels from ~10% to ~15%, contributing as much as 2 percentage points to the overall tariff rate on US imports,' especially as pharma and semis lose exemptions. Tariffs Showing Up in Data—With a Lag The actual impact of tariffs is only just beginning to filter into the numbers. May's U.S. import data reflected an effective tariff rate of just 8.3%, but analysts expect 'convergence in June and July to a mid-teens effective tariff rate' as shipping delays and in-transit exemptions expire. 'We did see very clear signs of tariff-driven inflation across most goods' in the June CPI print, and Morgan Stanley expects 'tariffs to result in up to 1 percentage point level shift in prices in the coming months before subsiding as demand softens in reaction' Supply Chains Scramble in Real Time Companies aren't waiting for the dust to settle. Morgan Stanley said, pointing to material shift in supply chains to Vietnam and India. 'Material shifts to Vietnam and India are visible in recent months' across electronics supply chains, as firms react to changing tariff regimes. China's share of U.S. imports slumped to just 7.7% in May from 13.7% in 2024, but could rebound as embargo-level tariffs are relaxed. Tariffs on Mexico and Canada, meanwhile, have been lower than expected at 4.3% and 1.9%, respectively; this is likely due to a "combination of unexpectedly high USMCA compliance, significant US content in autos, and possibly lenient enforcement.' Inventory Frontloading: Not as Widespread as Feared Front-loading effects, meanwhile, were more targeted than broad-based. 'Roughly 80% of the increase in Q1 imports was driven by just seven HS6 categories including gold, pharmaceuticals, and AI-related goods... Excluding these, the cumulative excess imports compared to 2024 levels amounted to less than 2% of annual imports,' the analysts found. By May, as tariffs took hold, overall import volumes fell 5%. Sector-Specific Winners—and Losers Sectors are experiencing varying levels of impact from tariffs. 'Tariffs were highest in sectors like Fabricated Metal Products (Section 232 tariffs) and Textiles and May rates remained elevated at ~24% and ~20%, respectively. These sectors, however, account for a relatively small share of total imports. In contrast, high-volume categories such as Computers & Electronics, Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals, and fuels faced much lower tariff rates—under 10%—"dampening the aggregate inflationary impulse," the analysts added. The costs are falling squarely on U.S. importers, not exporters, and 'volumes are giving way rather than prices...[but] we are early in the tariff story, and things are very much in flux' Related articles Market moves past trade deal euphoria—Morgan Stanley dives into what comes next These Under-the-Radar Stocks Offer Better Risk-Reward Ratio Than Nvidia Surge of 50% since our AI selection, this chip giant still has great potential Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
The Hill
2 hours ago
- The Hill
The left is trying to use international ‘lawfare' to shut down Musk and X
Elon Musk had three recent posts on X that are worth noting if you are opposed to censorship and cancellation. The first was two cartoon panels with the question, 'How do you tell who's telling the Truth?' The next panel offered the answer: 'The ones trying to silence other people are the ones lying.' Just prior to that, Musk had reposted a post that reads, 'President Trump's State Department has announced it is coming to the defense of Elon Musk's X after France labeled it an organized crime group and opened a criminal investigation. The State Department's DLR [the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor] stated, 'As part of a criminal investigation, an activist French prosecutor is requesting information on X's proprietary algorithm and has classified X as an 'organized crime group.' Democratic governments should allow all voices to be heard, not silence speech they dislike. The United States will defend the free speech of all Americans against acts of foreign censorship.'' And just prior to that, Musk reposted a post from the conservative activist Mark Kern: 'There is a full on attack on the Internet by the UK and EU, disguised as 'for the children.' The ID requirement is affecting even Discord users and X users. It is full on dystopian as they ramp up police to arrest people for speech.' Below that is a link to a Telegraph article with the headline 'Elite Police Squad to Monitor Anti-Migrant Posts on Social Media.' Multiple people I have spoken with in the U.S., the U.K. and the EU believe that Musk and his X platform represent the greatest single threat to the far left and its goal of pushing its narratives unchallenged across the globe. One way the left now seems intent on stopping Musk and X is by mimicking the various 'lawfare' schemes rolled out against then-candidate Donald Trump prior to the 2024 election, which many Trump supporters saw as an unethical attempt to force him out of the race. While that 'lawfare' tactic failed — thanks in large part to Trump taking it head-on, day after day, while exposing it for what it was — activists in Europe and elsewhere believe the strategy can be refined and hardened for use against Musk and X in an attempt to intimidate, censor or silence them. Lest we forget, back in 2023, the European Union opened a probe into X for alleged 'failure to counter illegal content and disinformation.' Ah. The catch-all accusation frequently used by the intelligentsia on the left: 'disinformation.' Recall the draconian COVID-19 dictates from the left enacted to combat 'disinformation'? Here is a January headline from ABC News: 'EU politicians warn against Elon Musk's incursions into European politics.' Of course, Musk might rightfully retort that his 'disinformation' and 'incursions' were not only protected free speech, but simply ways to point out severe double-standards and harmful policies that were having an adverse effect upon the majority of the citizens of those nations. I wrote a piece for this site a year ago titled ' Could Elon Musk actually be arrested and X cancelled?' I highlighted calls for Musk to be arrested for stating his opinions while anticipating that the personal animus directed against him, X and the internet by certain individuals and groups in Europe advocating for censorship and cancellation could grow. It now seems that I was correct. All of which raises an obvious question:Why do so many on the left want to prevent people around the world from gathering as much information as possible on their own, then coming to their own conclusions based on their own research? Do they fear people thinking for themselves? Do they fear their own constituents, customers and neighbors? Open minds open doors. I have always believed it imperative to listen to those I may disagree with. What if I am wrong and they are correct? What if they show me a truth I refused to believe out of ignorance, intolerance or indoctrination? Aren't I the one getting a gift — one I could not receive if their voices were censored or canceled? Alarmingly, many on the left in Europe — as well as in the U.S. — don't seem to share my belief that we need to listen to those we disagree with. Note this April headline from The New York Times: 'E.U. Prepares Major Penalties Against Elon Musk's X.' The opening paragraph of the article spells it out: 'European Union regulators are preparing major penalties against Elon Musk's social media platform, X, for breaking a landmark law to combat illicit content and disinformation, said four people with knowledge of the plans.' Once again, the left rolls out 'illicit content and disinformation' against Musk, X and the internet. Of course, millions around the world who are against censorship and cancellation and strongly in favor of free speech might say this is a transparent attempt by some on the left to intimidate and censor a site and voices that expose their continual failures to billions of people around the world. One person's 'disinformation' is another's 'irrefutable truth.' Don't hide behind censorship. Let the people think for themselves.
Bloomberg
4 hours ago
- Bloomberg
Ukraine Aims to Get All EU Financial Aid Planned for This Year
Ukraine plans to get its European reform program back on track after missed deadlines prompted the European Union to cut financial aid disbursements, said Economy Minister Oleksii Sobolev. The war-torn country wants to get €12.5 billion ($14.5 billion) from the European Union under the Ukraine facility, the financial support mechanism that aims to help keep the economy afloat amid the full-scale Russian invasion well into its fourth year.
