The strident declaration Albanese must make to China's Xi Jinping rather than his meaningless 'disagree where we must' waffle
And our Prime Minister is tying himself up in knots trying not to answer.
He doesn't want to say or do anything that might disturb his usual pandering and encouragement to Australian businesses to get even deeper into the China market.
But there's an enormous irony in what's going on here.
As the Prime Minister tours China with a high-powered business delegation and talks about growing our already unusually dependent trade relationship with China, back home the massive Talisman Sabre 2025 military exercise is happening.
About 30,000 Australian, US, Japanese, South Korean and other partner nations troops are exercising to demonstrate the power of collective defence, with two aircraft carriers, high tech aircraft and missile systems and large amphibious forces using Australian military bases scattered from Western Australia to Christmas Island and right down to NSW.
This demonstration of power and determination is mainly directed at Beijing, to deter Xi Jinping from sending his People's Liberation Army forces to invade Taiwan.
This message needs to be sent to Beijing because Xi has directed his military to make seizing Taiwan it's highest priority and his military has been following through on his order – ramping up its military preparations and presence around Taiwan over recent years.
2023 and 2024 were each record years for the level of Chinese military intimidation and presence around Taiwan, but 2025 has seen an even greater tempo of these preparations by Chinese forces.
Collective defence can only work if the militaries involved have enough capability to worry potential adversaries - and if the leaders of the nations involved sound sufficiently firm to be taken seriously.
No one can see Mr Albanese as serious or even engaged in the issues of deterring China from war through working closely with Australia's partners and allies.
His performance in avoiding any serious answers about regional security in the lead up to and during his visit underlines the problem.
Unfortunately, this isn't a new development – Mr Albanese's first term as prime minister is a tale of discounting security issues and underinvesting in our military while focusing himself on what he still calls 'stabilising' our relationship with China.
On security, Xi just isn't listening, sending the Chinese Navy on a trip around Australia that included live firing earlier in the year.
Mr Albanese has tried to deflect any question on regional security saying his government is 'investing in our capabilities and … investing in our relationships'.
On capabilities this just isn't true.
Whatever he claims on the Defence budget, we now know that the Navy doesn't even have enough funds to maintain and operate the small number of ships it still has, and this underfunding is almost certain to be true across the Army and Air Force.
As to 'investing in our relationships', Mr Albanese seems very interested and invested in one of his relationships – the one with Xi – but decidedly disinterested in other key partnerships, whether with Japan, South Korea or the US.
The PM is on an extraordinarily long six-day tour of China but he didn't organise even a day stopover in either of two nations that Australia has strong economic and security relationships with - South Korea and Japan - while in the neighbourhood.
And, of course, there's not the glimmer of even a pull aside meeting with US President Trump on his schedule, let alone a six-day US tour.
That sends a signal all by itself, because a leader's priorities are demonstrated by how and where they spend their time.
No wonder US officials are asking questions in public about our intentions as an ally, which were formerly discussed in detail and in private.
So what could Mr Albanese say that would be both truthful and diplomatic while he is in China talking up deepening our economic dependency on China?
He needs something other than waffle about hypotheticals and investing in relationships – or his favourite meaningless soundbite on anything about the government in Beijing 'we cooperate where we can, disagree where we must and engage always'.
He could say:
'Of course, deterring conflict over Taiwan – and any other conflict in our region - is important and Australia is a part of sensible collective defence planning for credible regional scenarios.'
'Like any other leader, I won't give cast iron guarantees about decisions on future situations and circumstances, but no one should doubt Australia's commitment to regional security.
'That commitment is why Australia is hosting our US ally and 16 other partner and allied militaries at exercise Talisman Sabre 2025 right now.'
The fact he won't or can't say this is no doubt what Washington is finding so odd and increasingly disturbing.
Michael Shoebridge is a SkyNews.com.au contributor and the founder and director of Strategic Analysis Australia
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