Powell Doesn't Rule Out a Fed Rate Cut in July
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Yahoo
11 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Consumers are feeling the pressure of a stagnant labor market
Consumers are feeling worse about the labor market outlook. In June's Consumer Confidence Survey, 29.2% of respondents said jobs were "plentiful," down from 31.1% in May. Meanwhile, 18.1% of consumers said jobs were "hard to get," down slightly from 18.4% in month prior. These may seem like mere details, but this pushed the difference between the two — a closely watched sentiment reading called the labor market differential — to just 11.1 percentage points in June. That marked the lowest gap since March 2021, when the job market was recovering from the onset of the pandemic. Coupled with the surprise of the reading, expected to be strong, and it's something of note. By subscribing, you are agreeing to Yahoo's Terms and Privacy Policy The current situation is different than the so-called vibecession of 2022, where consumers felt worse about the state of the economy than actual data had shown. This time, consumers aren't getting it twisted: There are clear signs of slowing in the labor market all over the place right now. Weekly filings for unemployment are hovering at an eight-month high. In a sign workers are taking longer to find jobs, continuing unemployment claims are near their highest level since November 2021. The hiring rate is near its lowest level in more than a decade. And the outlook for certain cohorts of the labor market, like tech workers and new college graduates, is worse than before the pandemic. "The lost momentum in the labor market is not lost on consumers," Wells Fargo senior economist Tim Quinlan wrote in a note to clients. The weakening labor market outlook helped contribute to the broad Consumer Confidence Index unexpectedly declining in June after a large May bounce back. But perhaps even more importantly, it's also one reason why some are clamoring for the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates soon. In a speech on June 23, Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman noted that while the labor market is showing signs of strength, it "appears to be less dynamic." "With inflation on a sustained trajectory toward 2%, softness in aggregate demand, and signs of fragility in the labor market, I think that we should put more weight on downside risks to our employment mandate going forward," Bowman said. But with seven officials forecasting no interest rate cuts this year and eight penciling in two cuts, there's clear debate about whether rising inflation or a weakening labor market will drive the Fed's policy decisions over the next few months. While testifying in front of House lawmakers on Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell stressed the central bank is "well-positioned to wait" before moving interest rates. Powell cited wider-ranging metrics like the national unemployment rate at 4.2% and an average of 124,000 nonfarm payroll gains through the first five months of the year to describe labor market conditions as "solid." And it's hard to argue that. But the argument for the Fed to cut sooner rather than later isn't about the broad-ranging metrics flashing warning signs. If that were the case it wouldn't be an argument. Just look back to the Fed's jumbo half percentage point interest rate cut last September that came after a string of weak labor data. Instead, the key concern some economists have about the economic outlook is being expressed by slowing on the margin and the fear those data points could be pointing to something worse. As Renaissance Macro head of economics Neil Dutta wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday, "I follow what consumers tell me about the jobs market since they tend to lead the actual data." A compelling argument. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices
Engadget
12 minutes ago
- Engadget
The EU's border security software is reportedly full of holes
The software used by EU border security forces to prevent undocumented immigrants and suspected criminals from travelling in the region is allegedly riddled with holes and vulnerable to cyber attacks. The Second Generation Schengen Information System (SIS II) is an IT system and database shared between most EU states for law enforcement and public security purposes. And according to a new collaborative report between Bloomberg and investigative non-profit Lighthouse Report s, SIS II — which has been used since 2013 — is plagued with "thousands" of cybersecurity issues, to the extent that an EU auditor flagged them to be of "high" severity in a report filed last year. The report notes that there is no evidence of any data theft, but the "excessive number" of accounts that unnecessarily have access to the database means it could be fairly easily exploited. During its initial rollout, SIS II's major additions included fingerprint technology and photographs in alerts, and in 2023 the software was updated with upgraded data and enhancements to its existing functionality, including the ability to signal when someone has been deported from a country. Bloomberg reporters spoke to Romain Lanneau, a legal researcher at an EU watchdog called Statewatch, who warned that an attack would be "catastrophic, potentially affecting millions of people." Right now SIS II operates within an isolated network, but will soon be rolled into the EU's Entry/Exit system (EES) , which will make registering biometric details a requirement for individuals travelling to Schengen-associated areas when it comes into effect, likely later this year. As the EES will be connected to the internet, a hack on the SIS II database will become significantly easier. Bloomberg and Lighthouse note that while most of the SIS II system's estimated 93 million records pertain to objects such as stolen vehicles, there are around 1.7 million linked to people. It adds that people usually aren't aware that their details are logged in the database until law enforcement gets involved, so if the information was leaked, wanted individuals may find it easier to evade the authorities. SIS II's development and maintenance is managed by a Paris-based contractor called Sopra Steria. According to the report, as vulnerabilities were reported, they took between eight months and upward of half a decade to resolve. This is despite it being contractually obligated to fix issues deemed to be of critical importance within two months of releasing a patch. A spokesperson for Sopra Steria did not respond to Bloomberg regarding the detailed list of allegations concerning SIS II's security holes, but said in a statement printed in the report that EU protocols had been adhered to. "As a key component of the EU's security infrastructure, SIS II is governed by strict legal, regulatory, and contractual frameworks," it said. "Sopra Steria's role was carried out in accordance with these frameworks." EU-Lisa, the EU agency that oversees large-scale IT systems like SIS II, regularly farms out duties to external consulting firms as opposed to building its own in-house tech, according to the investigation. The audit accused the agency of not informing its management about security risks that had been flagged, to which it responded by saying that all systems under its management "undergo continuous risk assessments, regular vulnerability scans, and security testing."
Yahoo
12 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Suze Orman: These 8 Financial Mistakes Wreck Your Future
A March 2025 Empower study found that 55% of respondents felt further away from financial success than they did the previous year. While rising costs and uncertainties about the economy can make you feel out of control and unconfident about your money, you can focus on taking the right steps — and avoiding the wrong ones — to get where you want to be financially. Read Next: Check Out: An episode of 'The Suze Orman Show' highlighted eight common mistakes that can wreck your financial future. Find out how these damaging moves affect your finances and avoid them. According to the Federal Reserve, Americans owed almost $1.8 trillion in student loans in the first quarter of 2025. Not only are potentially large monthly payments an issue, but you usually can't even use bankruptcy to get rid of this debt. Orman discussed how these problematic loans can keep hurting you in the long term, including when you try to purchase a home or save for retirement. Choosing an affordable school and using funds from sources like scholarships, grants and work income will reduce your borrowing needs. Be Aware: 'Don't you dare, don't you dare take a loan from a 401(k) or any retirement account,' Orman said. Tapping into your retirement funds is tempting if you want to get rid of debt or make a big purchase. But the money removed won't be earning returns, and you could end up paying penalties and taxes. This move may just leave you further away from your retirement savings goal. While owning a home can be a smart decision that gives you security, avoid the mistake of buying a property that is beyond your budget, even if the lender will give you a larger amount. Having a big housing payment puts you at risk if you face any financial setbacks. Orman encouraged opting for a small house. You can use a home affordability calculator to get a realistic idea of your target home price and mortgage payment amount based on your monthly income and expenses. While it's easy to get comfortable making minimum payments, Orman explained that doing so is in the best interest of your creditor rather than you. That's because you're keeping yourself in debt for longer and losing more money to interest. Besides increasing your costs, keeping credit card debt around steals opportunities to invest or save. So find ways to cut expenses or increase your income so you can pay off your balances and not get stuck carrying them again. 'One of the biggest mistakes that will absolutely derail your future is cosigning a loan for somebody else — under no circumstances,' Orman said. The Federal Trade Commission noted the risks you take helping someone this way, including having to make the payments if that person can't, possibly having issues getting your own loans and risking your credit score. Even if you trust the person, saying 'no' is safer for your finances. The 2024 Genworth Cost of Care Survey reported median annual costs of $111,325 to $127,750 for nursing homes and $70,800 for assisted living communities. Even if you have substantial retirement savings, these high costs can drain you financially and leave you with few options. Since many people will need this care at some point, Orman encouraged purchasing a long-term care insurance policy in your 50s or 60s so you can protect your hard-earned money. The right timing is important for both premium affordability and your eligibility. If you were to become incapacitated or pass away, you would save your loved ones from some financial and legal headaches if you had a living revocable trust. This is important regardless of your wealth, so consider speaking with an attorney about the benefits. 'It will pass your assets down to your children or your beneficiaries free of probate,' Orman explained. You can make damaging financial decisions simply because you agree to do something you really don't want to do, often out of pressure or fear of disappointment. Maybe you lend money to a loved one you feel sorry for or make a regretful purchase that your partner pushed. Instead of sacrificing your financial security, take Orman's advice: 'Say 'no' out of love for yourself versus 'yes' out of fear that somebody else isn't going to like you.' More From GOBankingRates Mark Cuban Warns of 'Red Rural Recession' -- 4 States That Could Get Hit Hard Are You Rich or Middle Class? 8 Ways To Tell That Go Beyond Your Paycheck 9 Downsizing Tips for the Middle Class To Save on Monthly Expenses This article originally appeared on Suze Orman: These 8 Financial Mistakes Wreck Your Future Sign in to access your portfolio
