Mitchell the man to end Cavs' NBA playoff slide
So with home fans on their feet, expecting Indiana to cut what had been a 24-point deficit to single digits, Mitchell took the game into his own hands. He hit a 13-foot fadeaway, then a pull-up three-pointer and finally found Max Strus for another triple and the Cavaliers went on to a 126-104 victory on Friday night.
"I couldn't let it happen again, and it wasn't just me," Mitchell said after finishing with 43 points and nine rebounds to cut their Eastern Conference semi-final series deficit to 2-1.
"I know I scored, but like, we got stops, made plays. But for me, just trying to be the aggressor."
The road team has won all three games, and the Pacers will have another chance to break that trend Sunday in Game 4.
Donovan Mitchell was UNSTOPPABLE in the @cavs Game 3 road win!🕷️ 43 points🕷️ 9 rebounds🕷️ 5 assists🕷️ 5 threesCleveland looks to tie the series Sunday at 8:00pm/et on TNT 🍿 pic.twitter.com/lNvsm2iVj9
— NBA (@NBA) May 10, 2025
But Cleveland were desperate to avoid falling into a 3-0 hole and used everything in their arsenal to hold on.
NBA Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley and key backup De'Andre Hutner returned from injuries after missing Game 2. All-Star guard Darius Garland also returned from a toe injury that kept him out of four straight games.
Strus made four triples and had 20 points, seven rebounds and seven assists in a game the Cavs never trailed.
Bennedict Mathurin led the hosts with 23 points. Pascal Siakam had 18 and Tyrese Haliburton finished with four points and five assists — his first career home loss in a post-season game he's appeared.
"This was a very poor effort at the beginning of the game, through so many parts of the game," Pacers coach Rick Carlisle said.
"Clearly, I didn't have these guys ready for this. Ty had a rough game. I have to do more to get him in better positions to have better shots."
Tempers flared at times with the Pacers drawing five technical fouls. On the court, though, Cleveland controlled the game after breaking a 36-36 tie with a 25-4 run, which gave them a 66-45 halftime cushion.
Indiana closed to 104-93 early in the fourth before Mitchell and Strus led the game-sealing scoring flurry.
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Fox Sports
13 minutes ago
- Fox Sports
2025 NBA Sixth Man Of The Year Odds: Payton Pritchard Favored To Repeat
Fans are already diving into the odds for next season's NBA betting markets. The Thunder are the current favorites to win it all again, Cooper Flagg is the heavy favorite to win Rookie of the Year and there's a close race at the top of the board for Most Improved Player. And now bettors are starting to put some cash on players for Sixth Man of the Year. Payton Pritchard won the award at the end of the 2024 season, becoming the fourth Celtic to take home the honor. The 6-foot-1 point guard is the favorite to win Sixth Man of the Year at the end of the 2025 season. Let's look at the early odds at DraftKings Sportsbook as of July 15. NBA Sixth Man of the Year 2025 Payton Pritchard, Celtics: +550 (bet $10 to win $65 total) De'Andre Hunter, Cavaliers: +800 (bet $10 to win $90 total) Naz Reid, Timberwolves: +1100 (bet $10 to win $120 total) Jordan Clarkson, Knicks: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total) Gradey Dick, Raptors: +1800 (bet $10 to win $190 total) Ty Jerome, Grizzlies: +1800 (bet $10 to win $190 total) Jared McCain, 76ers: +2200 (bet $10 to win $230 total) Jabari Smith, Jr., Rockets: +2200 (bet $10 to win $230 total) Keldon Johnson, Spurs: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total) Caris LeVert, Pistons: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total) Obi Toppin, Pacers: +2800 (bet $10 to win $290 total) Donte DiVincenzo, Timberwolves: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total) Bobby Portis, Bucks: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total) Names Further Down the Board: Alex Caruso, Thunder: +8000 (bet $10 to win $810 total) Brook Lopez, Clippers: +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total) Luke Kennard, Hawks: +15000 (bet $10 to win $1,510 total) Lonzo Ball, Cavaliers: +15000 (bet $10 to win $1,510 total) Boston's Payton Pritchard is at the top of the board at +550. He appeared in 80 games for the Celtics last season, averaging 14.3 points, 3.8 rebounds and 3.5 assists. Pritchard was the favorite to win Sixth Man of the Year for virtually all of last season before officially taking home the award in April. Second on the board is Cleveland's De'Andre Hunter at +800. Hunter was drafted fourth in the 2019 NBA Draft by the Lakers but spent most of his career in Atlanta until being acquired by the Cavaliers in February 2025. He averaged 17 points and 4.0 rebounds in 2024 and received two first-place votes in last season's Sixth Man voting. A name further down the board that bettors might want to keep an eye on is Oklahoma's Alex Caruso at +8000. The 6-foot-5 shooting guard averaged 7.1 points off the bench but was an integral part of the Thunder's championship run, as he shot 44.6% from the field. Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily! recommended Item 1 of 3 Get more from the National Basketball Association Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more


New York Times
17 minutes ago
- New York Times
How to avoid bad fantasy football draft picks and dooming your roster from the start
I'll bet you didn't know that Indiana Jones holds the key to fantasy football glory. Or, at least he's part of an instructive metaphor on how to avoid dooming your roster with poor picks. Remember that sequence at the end of 'Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade' where he's sent through a series of lethal challenges to retrieve the Holy Grail? After dodging spinning blades of death, he must navigate a room with a false floor so he doesn't plummet to his demise, then, faced with a plethora of similar objects, he must 'choose wisely' to secure the Grail. Make the wrong selection? Shrivel into skeleton dust. (Which is essentially the same effect as managers spending an early pick on Kyle Pitts … ) Advertisement What this cinematic climax illustrates is that the path to claiming your prize (the Grail/your championship) is not as simple as following a marked path and picking the shiniest object you see. So we're here to tell you that blindly selecting your roster based on the overall player rankings of your fantasy draft platform, or even a preferred pundit, is a great way to ensure your team plummets into a bottomless abyss, or what I like to call The Draft Chasms of Doom™. Player rankings seem a clean enough way of organizing your potential selections, but they obscure a crucial element that ultimately decides your fantasy fate, namely points. While players may rank, say, No. 4 and 5 in the quarterback rankings, No. 5 may project to produce significantly fewer points than No. 4. So, while you may think you're getting the next best player at a position, you could be walking off a projected points cliff because you're bypassing better alternatives that provide a bigger advantage over their positional peers. To state the obvious: In fantasy football, you are trying to score more points than your opponent each week. But the way those weekly scores accumulate is what really matters. You should really think of each position as a mini-battle with your weekly opponent. Each of those mini-battles aggregates to the final score. So the real path to weekly success and fantasy football domination is maximizing the point differential at the positions that you win, while minimizing the differential at positions you lose. Unless you're drafting against a group with the collective IQ of Derek Zoolander, you're not landing the top projected players at every position. But by paying attention to big drops in projected points, you can create the biggest possible scoring advantage at each position in your starting lineup. Advertisement Using Jake Ciely's 2025 player projections, we'll show you where to find the biggest drops in projected points at each of the four main positions. Meanwhile, Jake explains what his projections are seeing and provides advice on how to avoid those Draft Chasms of Doom. (Should you spring for one of the top-four QBs or wait late?) But if you want to get into the weeds on some fantasy football philosophy and why these draft drop zones are so critically important, read on. While rankings provide a draft map of sorts, what's really important is the gap in production between players at a position. That gap is ultimately what defines league-winning players, particularly when measured against their average draft position. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen finished No. 1 and 2 among quarterback scoring in 2024, but Jackson put up 434.4 points to Allen's 385. Applying an advanced mathematical concept I like to call 'subtraction,' Jackson provided more than a 50-point edge over the next-best QB last season. Given every team must start a quarterback, in a 12-team league, that margin grows to a whopping 146 between Jackson's season and the No. 12 scoring QB (Justin Herbert). However, that assumes each of the 12 teams featured one of the top 12 QBs and one or more teams didn't have two QBs in that group, with one on the bench. Thus that 146-point gap between Jackson and Herbert (or 8.6 points over 17 weeks) represents the minimum advantage created by having Jackson facing the team with the worst QB in their fantasy league. In the words of Larry David, that's pret-ty, pret-ty, pretty good. Even going against the No. 2 QB in Allen, Jackson's team would have about a 3-point weekly edge. The more advantages like that you can create at each position, the more likely you are to win each week. Advertisement Of course, selecting all the top performers at each position is impossible in almost any draft format, especially in a snake draft. So to maximize your advantages, you have to identify potential values (by weighing projected points against average draft positions and positional scarcity) while not getting forced to fill a position with a sub-optimal starter. The latter is what we're focused on with our Draft Chasms of Doom. For example, using Jake's player projections (and assuming they're prophesied to become reality at the end of the 2025 season), whoever drafts Brock Bowers (223.2 projected points) will have a 4-plus point-per-game advantage at tight end over half of the teams in a 12-team league. But you're going to need to take Bowers in the early second round based on FantasyPros' consensus ADP (for half-point PPR, which is what Jake's projections use). There are running backs like Devon Achane (ADP 15), Jonathan Taylor (20) and Josh Jacobs (23) being drafted around that slot. Meanwhile, George Kittle is getting drafted in Round 4 and offers a 3.1 ppg edge on half the TEs in that league. Which is the better pick: Snag Bowers early or wait for Kittle and instead take one of Ciely's Top 10 RBs in Round 2? Glad you asked. The key terms here are 'scarcity' and 'marginal advantage.' The first refers to how many players at a position group are truly valuable relative to players at a replacement level. (Consult Jake's VORP rankings in the customizable cheat sheet and you'll see how each position group stacks up in terms of scarcity.) The second refers to the edge you can create for yourself by picking one player over another, basically the Bowers/Kittle example above. Marginal advantage is also important because it illustrates why players who put up more overall points across a season might not be the most helpful players for your team. These terms are important because of a key restriction placed on your team each week: Your starting lineup. While QBs may produce the most overall fantasy points of all players in a given season – Jackson outscored the top non-QB, Saquon Barkley, by 95.6 points in half PPR formats in 2024 – running backs and wide receivers are far more valuable. Why? You need more of them in your starting lineup. (Assuming you play in a one-QB league, obviously.) Remember that example above about the drop from Lamar Jackson to Herbert and the 8.6 point-per-game advantage it created for Jackson's teams last season? Do the same for Barkley – No. 1 RB with 338.8 points in 2024 – and the 'best worst' starting RB option last season – No. 24 Rachaad White, 174.1 points – and you get a gap of 164.7, or about 9.7 points per game on average. Even my English degree allows me to see that 9.7 is more than 8.6, which makes Barkley the more advantageous pick at his position. This also holds for the No. 1 vs. No. 24 wide receivers (Ja'Marr Chase and Zay Flowers), which featured a 167-point gap (9.8 ppg). Translation: Running backs and wide receivers have higher positional value than quarterbacks, particularly when you consider you really should draw the 'best worst' option for RB and WR around 30 instead of 24 to account for starters at the Flex position, which is standard in most leagues. Plot out the position projections on a graph and you can see clearly how the value decreases as you go deeper down the rankings. That 24-to-30 drop is particularly precipitous at running back, where last year Barkley's edge was almost 11.5 ppg over No. 30 RB Kareem Hunt. Scan Ciely's rankings this season and you'll note that you get to 'replacement level' running backs a lot faster (No. 44) than you do at wide receiver (No. 57). Based on that, you can provide a slight edge for running back value over wide receivers, but both are clearly greater than quarterbacks this season. Meanwhile, as alluded to earlier with Bowers and Kittle, tight ends provide a poignant example of how the Draft Chasms of Doom can impact your roster. Advertisement Hopefully by now you can see where we're going with this. And hopefully you also have a Gatorade and Cliff Bar handy to reinvigorate yourself after reading all these words. (No one said dominating your draft came without sacrifice!) Owning an advantage at one position is great, but you need to create advantages for as many position groups as possible. Take the top-ranked quarterback first overall and you're certainly not getting the top-ranked running back or wide receiver … or the second, or the third … and probably not even the 10th. This is what makes drafting a QB in the first round pure folly and why fantasy experts almost always wait until later rounds to draft their starting quarterback. The gaps in player point production we've discussed above represent, in raw points, a player's value over a starting-caliber replacement player, a concept that fuels the Moneyball-related acronym VORP (Value Over Replacement Player). It's through this prism we can clearly see the wisdom of taking players before a big drop in value at a position group. Those big dips are Draft Chasms of Doom. And you can navigate them by evaluating players' projected value against their average draft position (ADP). At quarterback in 2024, two QBs finished just behind No. 2 Josh Allen – Joe Burrow and Baker Mayfield, tied with 381.8 points. The advantage Josh Allen provided over those two QBs by scoring 3.2 more points over the full season? Almost non-existent. Now consider Allen was drafted somewhere between 22nd and 23rd on average – a second-round pick in a 12-team league. By contrast, Jackson was the fourth QB off the board, around No. 37 overall. Burrow and Mayfield? Around 65th and 152nd respectively. Through that lens, while Allen returned solid value for a second-round pick, Jackson's value was significantly higher, even selected a little over two rounds later. And Mayfield's? Astronomical. Now you just need to see the future for 2025 and draft accordingly. That's where Jake's projections come in. The differential between players' VORP values within a position is of vital importance because your draft can be unpredictable. When a position thins out quickly because someone drafts three QBs before Round 8, VORP can help you decide whether to continue the position run or pivot to another group and gain more value. Let's close with a hypothetical example, giving ourselves the No. 4 pick in the draft and examining a key decision point around our third selection, which falls No. 27 overall. Advertisement By ADP (per FantasyPros as of July 8), TE Trey McBride is the top player available at Pick 27 and would give us a nice edge at a position that thins quickly after the top four players. Based on Jake's projections, George Kittle is the better pick though and you can likely get him later (ADP 40). By waiting and selecting Kittle later, we can maximize the marginal advantage at another position while still creating a positional advantage at TE in a later round. Now let's look at quarterbacks. With Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen likely off the board, the top remaining QBs in this range all figure to go before our next pick, with Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow all projected to go before Pick 44. This means we're approaching one of those big drops at quarterback (depending how you feel about Justin Fields and Baker Mayfield). Meanwhile at RB, Alvin Kamara (97.97 VORP, which translates to a 122.4-point advantage over a replacement level RB) is still on the board and the top remaining WR is Tee Higgins, who holds a projected 83.4-point edge over a replacement receiver. If we were to take Daniels (the top remaining QB, by Jake's projections) the best remaining RBs for our next pick would fall around the Chuba Hubbard range (72.35 VORP) and DK Metcalf (71.12 VORP) for receivers. As Hubbard illustrates, the drop in RBs is much, much steeper than WRs. So too from Daniels (47.2) to the next tier of QBs (Fields at 36.3 VORP). In this example, based on Jake's projections, you should take Kamara and look closely at Kittle coming back in Round 4. We'll find our quarterback in a later round, knowing we've seized an advantage over most teams at running back and, if you can take Kittle, tight end. That's how the Chasms crumble, so to speak. Comprehending how this lens applies to draft strategy can keep you stepping smartly from one position to another, elevating your roster with your selections later this summer. Now, choose wisely and sip that sweet, sweet nectar of fantasy ambrosia at season's end. To look closer at some Chasms of particular interest, read Jake Ciely's analysis at quarterback (now live), running back (Wednesday), wide receiver (Thursday) and tight end (Friday). All scoring and draft selections based on a 12-team league with half-point PPR scoring. VORP and Projected Points Rankings pulled from Jake Ciely's Custom Cheat Sheet. ADP pulled from Fantasy Pros' half-point PPR listing as of July 8. (Top illustration: Will Tullos / The Athletic; Photos: Cooper Neill, Gregory Shamus, Wesley Hitt / Getty Images)


New York Times
17 minutes ago
- New York Times
The fantasy football quarterbacks to draft … and those to avoid
Every year on their draft day, fantasy football managers are guided by rankings, sometimes aggregate rankings or the default rankings from their fantasy game platform. However, rankings don't necessarily illustrate the value drops between consecutively ranked players, and using the same rankings as everyone else in your league provides zero advantage over other managers. Tip 1: Choose your favorite ranker (me!). Tip 2: Locate the value cliffs at each position and compare positional values. You can do this easily using our charts below. Advertisement Today, we're talking quarterbacks, but before diving too deep, read our primer on value cliffs, which we're calling 'Chasms of Doom.' [Link] To win each week, you want to create as much of an advantage as you can in each position group. While Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen were ranked No. 1 and 2 last year, Jackson provided a 50-point edge over Allen during the season and a 100-point advantage over QB6 Jared Goff. But Goff's advantage over QB7, Bo Nix, was fewer than 7 points, and only 16 points over QB9 Sam Darnold. So, if you waited to draft Darnold (or picked him up later off waivers), how many higher-producing skill-position players could you have drafted between when Goff was drafted and when Darnold got picked (up)? More importantly, what does that mean for this year? Using my Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) QB projections, you can clearly observe these positional value drop zones/chasms of doom ahead of the 2025 fantasy draft. The top tier consists of the same four as my rankings — Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts. The difference is Joe Burrow sits in his own tier just under the top four. Burrow offers the highest ceiling-plus-floor combination of any quarterback whose value lies mainly in their passing numbers. It's interesting to see the difference after that, as my rankings Tier 3 is quite large — more on that below — and why my strategy is to either get a Top 5 quarterback or wait until the draft end game. The projections tiers (and drop-offs) suggest being a bit more aggressive in Tier 2 (here), and I'm okay with that … if the cost is a Round 7-8 price. And that's the highest I'd go, because I'm often still finding too much RB or WR value to take my quarterback in those rounds. The visualization — which illustrates the drop in VORP from one player to the next — would suggest Lamar Jackson falls in a tier of his own with Burrow alongside Justin Fields and Baker Mayfield. This is where context matters around the projections. I give Burrow more credit, as Fields obviously carries a lot of risk, and Mayfield brings some concern as well given another new offensive coordinator and the uncertainty of his rushing upside — was 2024 real or a one-year blip? Advertisement You can also see how small the general decline is after Mayfield, but it's also cautionary. Once you get to QB15 (Trevor Lawrence), you're giving up about 2 fantasy points per game (FPPG). My rankings (and tiers) differ from the projections, as they include risk assessment and upside chasing. (You can see those differences via our customizable draft cheat sheet.) When I'm taking a quarterback, I never aim to get QB11. As shown by the projections, that's almost pointless given the replaceability. Once the Top 5 are gone, I'm waiting, and I'm drafting someone with Top 5 upside, even if there is a mere 10% chance of that coming to fruition. That's why I have Drake Maye (QB16 based on the projections), Bryce Young (24) and a few others higher in the rankings, and Trevor Lawrence a tad lower. In this case, even Lawrence's best-case scenario likely peaks as QB9-10, whereas Maye has a Top 5 ceiling, though I'd never bet on it. Again, the goal is to get a distinct advantage at a position, and you can see how a Top 5, even Top 7, quarterback is one way to get that foothold. But before you say, 'Well, then I have to go get Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, etc. or nothing at all,' remember how Baker Mayfield made that jump last year, and Jayden Daniels debuted there. The same surprises occur almost any year. We regularly see 1-2 quarterbacks inside the Top 7 for seasonal scoring who 1) have never been there, 2) debut there, or 3) see a rebound season. Those three types are what I'm aiming to draft in the late rounds when I'm unable to get a Top 5 option early. (Photo of Joe Burrow: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)