Commodity Radar: Gold bulls in leash as Trump's tariff deadline, Fed minutes weigh. 5 trading tips
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Tech view: 5 things to watch out for
1) Key support & resistance
Resistance Zone
Support Zone:
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2) RSI (14) of 48.68 shows weak & neutral bias
3) Bollinger Bands: Neutral to bearish
4) Moving Averages
5) MACD: Losing bullish grip
Trading strategy: Sell on rise in Rs 96,900–Rs 97,100 zone
Gold prices fell amid profit-taking as investors remained wary ahead of July 9, when Trump's tariff pause ends. The US Federal Reserve will also release its June FOMC minutes on this day which may give an idea of the stance it may take in the July-end meeting.The MCX August Contracts were trading at Rs 96,514 per 10 gram in the opening trade, down by Rs 476 or 0.5%, taking cues from the international prices. On the COMEX, gold futures were trading at $3,319.50 per troy ounce, declining by $23.40 or 0.70% around 10 am India time.Gold is expected to react to global macroeconomic uncertainty, especially as the US enters a key tariff implementation week, heightening market anxiety, Jateen Trivedi, Vice President Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities said. As geopolitical tensions remain subdued, investors are reluctant to chase gold without clarity on the Fed policy, he opined.The LKP Securities analyst sees MCX premium getting deflated as the rupee continues to strengthen due to geopolitical de-escalation, improving India's macro backdrop. A stronger rupee typically reduces MCX Gold prices even if COMEX holds steady, making local gold less attractive near resistance.Gold opened the week on a weaker note as sellers emerged near Rs 97,100. The price structure continues to exhibit a lower-high pattern, with the inability to hold above key resistance levels leading to profit booking.Rs 96,900–Rs 97,100Rs 98,200Rs 95,600Rs 94,600Rs 93,000A sustained close below Rs 95,600 could open the door toward Rs 94,600 and Rs 93,000, while a surprise breakout above Rs 98,200 would negate the bearish setup.RSI remains below the 50-level, indicating a lack of bullish momentum. The index has failed to cross into bullish territory and is now sloping downward. Until RSI crosses 55 decisively, price may remain under selling pressure.Price is currently hovering near the middle of the band. The upper band resistance (Rs 100,000) has held strongly, while the lower band (Rs ₹94,600) remains untested. The bands are relatively flat, indicating consolidation with a bearish undertone.EMA 8 & EMA 21 showing convergence – Watch for BreakdownRs 96,900Rs 96,600Price is attempting to hold above the EMA cluster but continues to face resistance from the 8EMA. A close below both EMAs would reinforce the sell-on-rise setup. Crossovers have not yet flipped bearish, but momentum is weakening.While not visible in the chart, prior histogram readings suggest momentum is cooling and MACD may cross below the signal line in the coming sessions. A bearish crossover would further confirm downside risk.Rs 98,200 on the closing basisRs 95,900/Rs 95,000/Rs 94,500
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